It was always the most likely scenario that the compact would be renegotiated.
As regards the player-banked games legal issue, whether or not the games are "poker" is not the issue. The current FL law defines "authorized games" as all nonbanked poker games. There is no definition of "nonbanked" in the law, but there is a definition of "banking game", which defines them as house-banked games.
However, the term "banking game" is not equivalent to the term "nonbanked" and is only used later in the statutes in a provision that says banking games are prohibited:
Quote:
No person licensed to operate a cardroom may conduct any banking game or any game not specifically authorized by this section.
So the legal question is what games are "specifically authorized". That lies in the definition of "authorized games":
Quote:
“Authorized game” means a game or series of games of poker or dominoes which are played in a nonbanking manner.
And we get back to the fact that "nonbanking" is not defined, which means that it falls to the common usage definition of the word. In this case imo, therefore, it would mean that any banked game, whether house-banked or player-banked, is not an authorized game under state law.
IMO, the state regulators made a definite legal error authorizing player-banked games in the first place, and the Seminoles have a perfectly valid legal claim against the state for compact violations.
Under the terms of the compact, in the case of such compact violations, the tribe is required to put their compact payments into an escrow account for up to a year while the state has the opportunity to correct the violations, after which the payments to the state resume if the violations are corrected. If the state doesn't correct the violations, then the tribe gets to keep the money and continue all the gaming without making any further payments to the state.
It doesn't really matter whether or not a new compact is negotiated. To continue to receive gaming revenue-sharing payments from the tribe, even if a new compact is not renegotiated and the authorized tribal gaming gets reduced to just slot machines, the state has to correct their error and stop the player-banked poker games at the pari-mutuels.
So this change in policy by the state regulators to forbid player-banked poker games is not really a sure sign that the compact renegotiations are progressing. It's just a sure sign that the state realizes it's legal mistake and doesn't want to forgo the $250M+ dollars per year it gets from the tribe. Of course, it could also tie in to the compact renegotiations, but I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that they must be closing in on a final agreement.
Still, I doubt either the state or the tribe wants the current compact to fail. If the tribe were to prevail in court and get continued Class III gaming without payments to the state, then there is also no longer any incentive for the state to continue exclusivity to the tribe. The state would then have to expand gaming throughout the state to maintain the gaming revenues, and the tribe would lose their dominance in the Florida gaming market. I don't think either party wants that scenario.
Last edited by PokerXanadu; 12-04-2015 at 07:22 AM.