^ Nice synopsis, although I would add a few notes.
I'm pretty sure the "top legislators" who are opposing a new includes the Senate leadership, and most specifically Senate President Andy Gardiner:
http://tbo.com/news/politics/new-sta...tion-20141115/
His is part of the anti-gambling crowd, and as the article says, firmly in the camp of Disney. He wouldn't mind letting the table games in the compact expire.
Also standing opposed to the new compact is House Speaker Steve Crisafulli. But his camp is support for pari-mutuels getting expanded gaming:
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/state...noles_74039817
Regarding the Gretna court case, just to make the point clear, the petition by the Seminole tribe to "intervene" is a petition to testify in support of the position of the State of Florida for the court to rehear the case against the Poarch Creek Indians. This article gives good details:
http://www.northescambia.com/2015/06...-slots-lawsuit
I'd be surprised if the request to rehear the case en blanc were denied. I'd be surprised if the decision of the full court were favorable to the Poarch tribe. And I'd be surprised if the State Supreme Case, where as you say the case will ultimately reside, were to find in favor of the Poarch tribe.
Meanwhile, the state legislature could just give slots to the other counties. But that ain't going to happen, imo. Nor will destination casinos.
The action from the Seminole tribe to challenge the state on grounds of table games at the pari-mutuels is a nice legal move for leverage to renegotiate the compact. The legal issues are complex, but I'd take the over on the state winning if it goes to court or federal arbitration.
The real issue is if and when the legislature will act on any of the issues. The table games in the compact expire at the end of July, with another 90 days after until the tribe is required to shut them down per the compact. That leaves just a couple months stretch at the end of the year until the 2016 legislative session begins. It would take at least that long for the state to get the feds to take action against the Seminole tribe if they weren't to shut down the table games.
So if I had to guess, I think the state won't take any action until 2016 except to get administrative delays on the compact process. In the meantime, the tribe will continue to run all their gaming and make their payments to the state. Next year, the legislature will have to finally decide which way they want to go. As an election year, it will be much harder to pass legislation that authorizes expansion of slots or destination casinos, so it will probably be the usual "keep the genie in the bottle" by renewing the exclusivities in the compact with the tribe. But that will require some concessions to the pari-mutuels as well. My fingers are crossed that one of them will be Internet poker.