This post is kind of a question about betting/shoving for protection. it's not really a post about if my flop shove is +EV. I'm pretty sure my flop shove is +EV; I'm shoving 320ish into 240 and I think I'm causing enough folds for it to be +EV. I also have an A redraw and, always hilarious, non-nut backdoor hearts. Let's not forget the King-Jack draw. It's +EV. Done and done.
This is Vs a regular who isn't that good. He's about runs like 30/18/3bet% 6. 6% is not that much. I'm not sure how often 3 bets my isos... but whatever I called preflop. I isoed from the CO so I look somewhat stronger and that should make his 3 bet a bit stronger too. Still, I called preflop. The limper is a fish and I iso pretty wide here and I think the reg knows that. My questions:
1. Is shoving better than calling? I realize that if I shove I'm getting worse hands to fold and its only getting called by better but is that really that bad? The pot is already 240ish and I don't know how often villain is 2bl barreling to make an accurate call or fold on the turn so I just shipped. I think shipping here is +EV but I'm not sure if its more +EV than just call/call. Sometimes I think shoving is good even when you're only getting called by better when:
the money in the pot you win + the amount of the pot you're protecting is > the amount you lose when you're called by better and dont suck out + the amount you gain on the next street vs bluffs.
Sometimes "the amount you gain on the next street vs bluffs" may not be attainable if you fold the turn. Like if I flat flop here, I may get bluffed off on the turn or allow KJo to catch up and I lose the pot.
(Some rambling math I don't know how to work out: Assuming my AQ is good... villain has like 6 outs or like 14% per street or whatever. So since there's 240 in the pot, by shoving, I am protecting ~$33. I'm also kind of protecting against the times he has like 76, hits a 7 on the turn, shoves, and I call with my AQ and do not suck out on river. Moving on, assume I fold every turn except an A or Q, so I lose my flop call of $88 every time he bets the turn and I fold. The 14% of the time I do hit my A or Q on the turn and he ships (assuming I'm good), I win the remainder of his stack when he ships turn so that's .14*240ish. Now sometimes I have reverse odds on turn when I hit my A or Q because sometimes Villain has T9s or JTo or AK but whatever... I didn't take this into account because whatever.)
Anyway... if anybody can help me figure out why shoving flop is good, that'd be nice. I need to rectify my beliefs on why shoving flop is good even when it's only getting called by better with the fact that it is a shove that is only getting called by better. I may just need to figure out why betting/shoving for protection is good in some spots. I may just not understand why betting/shoving for protection is better than calling for value.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($1053.30)
Hero (MP) ($400)
Button ($94.50)
SB ($541)
BB ($471.90)
Preflop: Hero is MP with A
, Q
UTG calls $4,
Hero bets $20,
1 fold,
SB raises to $71,
2 folds, Hero calls $51
Flop: ($150) 10
, 10
, 7
(2 players)
SB bets $88,
Hero raises to $329 (All-In),
Total pot: $326
| Rake: $3
Kind of an odd tidbit and something to think about, I'm turning AQo into a draw here, but it's also one that can be value-called on the flop and turn.
Last edited by JooWish622; 09-25-2009 at 12:47 AM.