Are my bet sizings alright?

Bet river bigger considering he would've 3bet before?

If he was chasing I priced him way out on flop, but really, at 2nl when people think they can stack you when hit, are people following the pot odds too closesly?

what size flop 3bet am I folding?





Thanks

A lot of people will def just call with Ac regardless of sizing, especially the flop you can just hit pot and people will call with lots of hands because the absolute bet size is not that big.

That being said I think he will bet flop with a lot of his range and you don't have to donk here, think it's a pretty good spot for a check raise.

Never folding flop because we're only dead against QQ, against a flush we've got decent odds still, and he may very well get it in with AA, KK, AcX, KcJx, 22 etc.

I agree with everything but was curious about the check raise option. Wouldn't you be concerned about them having a flush? It would be roughly a 35/65 situation which is not horrible but is still pretty bad to get it in wrong. What would you do if you got raised after you c/r?

Actually, similarly, what would you do if they raised the flop bet? I suppose still call (and correctly so) given the range of hands you mentioned.

i would check call the river, sometimes they missread the hand thinking you are the chaser, so they bet a bluff sometimes bigger than your value bet on the other hand if you are losing well you won't get a shove on the river + you will lose less (or even fold if ur read goes to that).

I think he can get it in far lighter than just with a flush or better, but he obviously can have a flush yes.

Against
QQ,22,KcJ,AcJ,AcK,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,AcT,AcQ

We're above 50% and I don't think that's an unreasonable range, even left out some hands that he might also get in like KcQx and I've not even counted for the WTF-factor.

I would raise in all situations on flop that would allow me to.

woops just noticed i left out a couple of flushes there, silly me, shouldnt make too much difference though

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I like the bet sizing, looks good ap

This is a very interesting discussion so I'd like to elaborate a bit on this one and add some numbers.

If you take into account all the Acx and Kcx hands they may have, indeed we will be ahead a good part of the time. Actually, even the majority of the time against the average Villain.

That said, I think there are a few different cases to consider because the opponent's range will be slightly different:

1) We check-raise the flop.

The problem I have with this option is that Villains often won't c-bet a monotone flop if they didn't hit it. This flop is more favourable for the caller rather than the preflop raiser. With drawing hands (KJ, AK, J9) and even made hands (weak Q, JJ, middle pairs), they may well check behind and get a free card. In some of these cases, this means we won't be charging them when we are ahead and they may well beat us with the free card. Since we are indeed ahead of everything but made flushes and QQ, donking makes more sense to me. It makes even more sense if we are planning to stack off on this flop because then we don't fear being raised.

If we check, Villain bets and we go for the check-raise I guess it all depends on Villain's abilities. First, it depends on how tight they are preflop. In this case, the tighter the better for us because there are some flushes that they will never have 76, 65, 54, 43. On the other hand, the looser (fishier) post flop the better, because then we'll get value from more drawing or otherwise speculative hands.

I think an average Villain's (not a complete fish but not a great player either) continuation range facing a flop check-raise will probably be something like:
QQ+, JcJx, 22, AQ, AcKx, AxKc, AcJx, AcTx, KcQx, KcJx, KcT, QdJc, QT, Ac9c-Ac3c, Kc9c, Jc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 4c3c

We are well ahead of this range but the better the player the less speculative hands they'll call with. A better player post will probably call with KK+ (with the club), QQ, 22, QT and made flushes. Against this range we have 48% equity which is roughly a coin flip so the decision to stack off in not that terrible either but is it worth it?

2) We bet and get raised.

This is a bit different because Villain's range is way narrower. Unless Villain is a complete fish, they wouldn't raise hands other than sets, two pair or made flushes. This is excluding the occasional min-raise probe bet to check if you have the flush. So Villain's range when they raise our flop bet is more similar to the latter where we have about 48% equity. In this case, is it still worth re-raise shoving?

Note that in all cases, if we are facing fish / calling stations then definitely we should be trying to gii on the flop one way or the other. Fish will call much lighter with worse holdings and despite them having more random flushes (92s kind of hand) it will still be profitable in the long run.