Quote:
Originally Posted by daveh07
He raises you 38% of the time in 3-bet pots so already we can take out every possible draw out of villains range.
This seems a bit blunt to me, just because a guy raises cbets a lot here doesn't mean he'll raise/fold a gutshot or low flushdraw instead of taking a turn with decent equity and money behind.
Overall I don't think the turn is as bad as people seem to think. You should fold out any gutshot type hand, most floats probably and you get value from 9x which isn't an all too insignificant part of villains range. Especially since he's so raisehappy on flops and thus can be expected to raise/snap flop with a fair amount of his Kx combos. Also, we lose the pot a ton when we check turn unless we have a good feel for villain (in which case this thread doesn't exist). Facing a turn bet without a predetermined plan is awkward and on so many rivers his range simply jumps ahead of ours and c/c thus becomes a lot less attractive.
River is a checkfold though in my opinion. I don't expect him to show up with a busted gutshot and if he raises that many flops Id expect most if not all Axs flushdraws to have raised flop. Most other flushdraws have a 9 in them or are combodraws that have already gotten it in at some point. I kinda feel like this river checks through the majority of the time if we have the best hand.