My session stats is 20/15/af5.2/3bet3.7 368 hands

The villain is 24/21/af3.0/3bet12.5 Flop CR 33 135 hands

His CR is kind of high so I think he would CR KT.

He doesn't have missed straight draw here because CRAI bluff at this point is suicidal.

He is representing QQ, JJ, Q7, J7, or may be 77 because of my small flop cbet.

Could he CRAI with AA-KK, putting me on QJ?

He has one of the 7 hands I listed above and I knew this during play.

So 5 combo beats us and we beat 2 combo.

Which one would you pick?

As you can see I bet too big on turn and river, and now I can not fold this hand because of pot odds.

Would you bet smaller on each street to keep an option opened to fold to a river CRAI?

Small boat sucks IMO because of too many bigger boat combination.

$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

Hero (BTN): $508.23 (127.1 bb)
MP: $753.15 (188.3 bb)
CO: $437.01 (109.3 bb)
SB: $409.10 (102.3 bb)
BB: $146.33 (36.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 3 3
MP folds, CO raises to $12, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30) 3 J Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $14.25, CO calls $14.25

Turn: ($58.50) 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $55.58, CO calls $55.58

River: ($169.66) 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $166.66, CO raises to $355.18 and is all-in, Hero ???

he ain't bluffing, but lets call and hope he has AA!

I actually think you can fold here, though it's obv close. Work on your sizing.

honestly if the only hands we think hes doing this with that we're ahead of are AA & KK, this has got to be a fold. I would even go as far to say that AA & KK are probably not in his CRAI river range, despite the runout. This is mainly because of your sizing, you full pot the turn, and then full pot board pairing river - this would be a somewhat suicidal play, and is very unlikely imo.

So then it comes down to if this guy is ever turning weak showdown hands into a bluff here, and I am just failing to see that - esp w the given stats you have shown you were playing at at the time of this hand. Def a fold, guy has QQ or JJ

$188.52 to call/$880.02 to win = 21%

Two combo win/Five combo lose = 28%

I hope I did the math right. Correct me if I'm wrong.

So I think it's a call.

No, that's wrong. There are 10 combos of QQ, JJ, Q7s, J7s and 77; 19 combos if you include Q7o and J7o. There are 12 combos of AA and KK.

It's really questionable if he opens Q7o and J7o, or if he c/calls a cbet w/ 77. The reason I said you can fold is not incorporated in these numbers; it's what the other posters said - he is rarely bluffing and your sizing is polarizing your range to a hand that beats AA and KK or complete air; in either case shoving in his shoes w/ AA or KK is bad.

That being said, people spazz, or do this w/ AA or KK occasionally + your getting great odds, that's why it's close.

OK my bad then, wow, that many frigging combos?

Can someone do the correct math %? I really wanna know what the numbers are....

First of all, learn how to count combos. Just google "poker hand combinations" or "hand combos" or smth. Download pokerstove or equilab.

Now, what correct math are you looking for? If you think that your opponent is taking this exact line 100% of the time with all the hands you listed above and never ever shows up with any other hand, then you win 12 out of 22 times; or 12 out of 31 times if you include Q7o and J7o.

So what now?

Thanks man, yeah I'll look that up later for sure.

12/22 = 54%

12/31 = 38%

Wow, could that be right? That looks too good to be true.

So against 21%, this is obvious call just math wise?

But if you consider game flow, dynamics, and player tendency, I think this gets a lot closer between fold and call.

Use weights to incorporate these considerations into your math, and math will also tell you it's close. For example, if you think he's doing that w/ AA or KK only 25% of the time, then there are effectively only 3 combos. You're are winning 3 out of 13 times, or 3 out of 22 times, respectively.

That would make it a fold right? But then again, people do bluff here occasionally, so if you add a few bluff combos here it's close again. You can also discount hands like 77, Q7o, J7o + you can also discount all of his other value hands to some extent because he is cbetting or c/raising flop with those some % of the time.

Hope that helps. As suggested in other threads, you should really work on your fundamentals. I don't want to discourage you from posting, but some of the stuff (including the above) is just so basic that I doubt people will put too much effort into responding.

using combos to assess/justify lines often ends up in u just confusing urself more and increases the likelihood of u playing incorrectly. The frequencies in the way that people play different hands is so variable that trying to analyze in a vacuum is futile since even 1 small thing can sway the decision.

i personally think his likely hand is 77 even tho theres only 1 combo. i think i would just end up calling if i was at the table if he is at all capable of turning a hand like J8 into a bluff with this line, since it wwould be hard for u to have a hand able to call since he has J blocker, and u only called pf.i also think sizing looks sorta bluffy/polarized, so it would be possible to induce him to bluff more.

id prob prefer to bet bigger on flop and smaller relative to pot on turn and river. i think if he cks the flop after raising pre, he already made up his mind whether hes gonna be c/f ,c/c, or c/r , so sizing smaller doesnt really bring more hands along. i would also be firing larger with my air too, which is fine b/c we will take down the pot there or later on quite often. i'd prob also be value betting all my value hands for like 22

he prob aint bluffing, but whatever. there are bigger things to worry about than deciding to fold a boat getting amazing odds. id prob just call it a cooler and move on.

Thanks for all your help. I am a noob who just started posting hands just recently so please bear with me.

I am still reading "Poker Math that Matters" by Owen Gaines, and it's taking me forever to finish because I just hate reading any books in general and on top of that I actually hate math even though I was a B+ math student in college.

The reason I posted this hand is because I wanted to hear your comments and opinions on his hand and his line. I will wait some more and do that later. I don't wanna spoil it but it's far more interesting than my hand.

I wouldnt fold.

a flop c/call by villain looks super strong here. have you ever seen him open raise preflop and then check away the lead before? you better start taking some notes on this line for this player for future reference so you can better define his hand ranges in this type of scenario. review all your hand histories with him and see if you can detect any useable patterns

Pretty sure he's not jamming KK/AA, but you never know, might give him a combo or 2 for the small chance he plays those hands like this. We'll be toast alot here, but always a chance he's trying some crazy bluff given we can only really have 33 as a boat. Pretty long shot, but folding now would be mad imo. Call and see his 77