I think hes folding Ax to an overbet more than people in this thread think. Were repping such a narrow range when we overbet (7x). Imo this isnt a bluff that 95%+ of regs will ever make, its just always 7x. Even if your known for being one of the more lag/creative regs, if you overbet big, i think u get a lot more folds here from Ax than u think.

I think over $500~ would be a mistake. and ove under $320~ would be a mistake.

+10000

I would bet 3/4 pot.

I think there is a lot of

AJ, AT, Ax in his range, as well as
KQ, QJ, QT,
also weak flush draws and some TJ, KT, 9T combinations

AQ is near the top of the range, as played, but unlikely. I think the sets will for sure have bet turn or river. 6d7d is a possibility, but then that would mean he thinks he's slowplaying now, also unlikely.

All the 8s probably fold on the flop, except A8, Q8 and 78, which all probably bet on the turn.

It is possible that one of those stronger hands checks to you on the turn because you have the lead, and then on the river just misses a bet or wants to show down, but it is unlikely.

It seems like villain's range here is pretty weak, unless he had specifically 6d7d, puts you on an AK type hand, checks the turn out of weakness, and then checks the river thinking you will value bet, maybe fixin to raise.

But yeah, 1/2 to 3/4, still get a lot of folds. Some of the arguments for overbetting are good, and maybe the math might make it profitable, but in real terms I feel like most of the time he will just straight fold to the overbet.

agreed