you would have bet turn with AK, and yeah you could do this with Ax to get him to fold a chop vs a range thats likely either Qx or Ax and c/f'ing or c/c'ing to a normal sized bet, but both folding to an OB, which I think would be a good play.

I think we can basically throw balance out the window here as its very unlikely you will be perceived to be OB bluffing here and should probably only do it with air, initially anyways.

Pretty much that and it's quite a parlay for you to cold 4b ax, and take a bet/ch back/2x ob river for thin value/get off chops line without history w/villain.

I'm not thrilled about what checking back this kind of hand ott does for our value range

sorry I keep picking on you but what does this even mean? 7xhh and 8xhh (pair and flush draw) are such a small part of our range for getting to the turn in this hand. changing how we play that tiny part of our range shouldn't really change anything in the opponents plans.

we can still bet the turn with a good mix of made hands and draws if we check back pair + flush draw.

$780

Any particular reason?

Because it's a perfect spot to overbet. You're never checking a monster on the turn with so many draws out there and check back turn / overbet looks completely FOS, which it is except you have 7x which is basically the only hand you rep and he's going to have a hard time putting you on that so yeah just overbet.

That being said I think one could make a strong case for virtually every sizing, overbetting is just so damn fun though so I default to that whenever it seems reasonable although in this case I really do think it's best

You never overbet river with AK or Ax here, get real. If you did, this should be a snap overbet with trips then, why are you asking?

I doubt villian will put to many 7x hands in heros 4 betting range unless you have been 4 betting a ridicolous amount of his 3 bets

results? pm me or put in spoiler pls

Don't really see how villain can ever have AQ here. His line obv looks like Ax and Qx more than draws. I probably wouldn't overbet shove because I doubt I'd ever do it as a bluff, I most likely bet $280ish.

just wanted to say that villain has a busted draw 0% of the time (unless he has some SDV).

Questions:
Do you only OB back door disguised hands?.
What board do you consider OB given previous action?.
How freq do you OB bluff?.
How freq do you OB nut?.
What range are you trying to fold out/call with these OBs?.
Do you only OB on river?
Do you size OB depending on desired outcome?
Do you target certain players with your Obs based on history?

Oh those are your only questions? Well then.

On the big side, not an overbet. Reasons, Ax will fold to an overbet a lot. Qx folds to almost any bet. With Ax, the only thing our sizing will influence is the amount of timebank he uses before clicking call.

No worries. IMO it correlates to a lot of spots(that could be where we disagree) and your 3barrel range will be a lot more nutted with less bluffs. In theory you could just 3bbluff more but the reality is most of the guys checking back pair+fl draws in spots similar to this don't 3bbluff enough.