Size matters. - Page 2 - Medium Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

nuggetz87 · 07-08-2012, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldjude

Well with his line, no reg can have floats or busted draws on the river. He has to have SDV and he has to assume that I perceive his SDV to be somewhat weak given that after his 3b pre he declined every opportunity to build the pot voluntarily.

I have to think that this means that although he has SDV, he knows I know it's prob some Ax or Qx hand, so he prob will feel compelled to call a river bet of any size at least some of the time. This is all assuming he's a decent hand-reader (I get the impression he probably is).

The problem is I think a lot of regs (admittedly much less than there used to be) will see an overbet here and just assume that I slowplayed something, and fold. I personally felt like it was close between betting 3/4 pot and making some kind of overbet.

Yeah I agree w all of this...in a spot where his range is pretty well defined as showdown hands but not nuts, and you get to the river with a lot of air but also a few hands that beat him (he's bluff catching any bet) its optimal and makes the most sense to go as big as possible so you can bluff more often.

But in reality I think people fold too much to overbets so pot might be better for now

UnderCover_Pro · 07-08-2012, 09:25 PM

Your fundemental thinking is wrong..Post undoctered results,

Nirwanda · 07-08-2012, 10:25 PM

The more I think about it, the more I like overbetting...

farmslicer7 · 07-08-2012, 10:31 PM

Bet turn. As played id bet normal, who overbet bluffs in this spot. If I had Ax if fold river if I was overbet into.

slowlane123 · 07-09-2012, 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by farmslicer7

As played id bet normal, who overbet bluffs in this spot.

This is a great spot to OB bluff, DUCY?

BLUFFDEEZ503 · 07-10-2012, 03:52 AM

I think river sizing of 0 is kinda sexy and feel like we get hero called an ok amount of the time if we c/shove the river because he knows that we know that its very unlikely hes ever nutted, so he might feel compelled to bet call all his Ax hands and maybe worse once in a blue moon

blainestar · 07-10-2012, 04:36 AM

+1 to farmy

Bet turn 225ish or w/e you normally bet and show him the pile on any non A river. Actually a K would be an interesting river card too but w/e.

You're never nutted and prob not 2xing the river w/AK very often(after taking this line) so a river OB looks a lot like 7x or a bluff. Unless you have a great image/history w/villain I'd assume a competent reg assumes OJ isn't taking this line as a bluff very often at all.

imfromsweden · 07-10-2012, 04:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slowlane123

This is a great spot to OB bluff, DUCY?

No what could you possible mean

trainwreckog · 07-10-2012, 07:48 AM

seems like a weaker villain would interpret an overbet as a crazy bluff and a stronger player would interpret it as an crazy slowplay, image considerations aside.

remember when gabe kaplan made a big river bet on a brick against durrrr on pad after the turn got checked through? durrrr said he folded because he figured kaplan knew that the river changed nothing (apparently kaplan leveled the crap out of durrrr

).

nothing close to the same hand, but i think the river psychology is similar.

Nirwanda · 07-10-2012, 07:59 AM

The reason I like overbetting this river is because it looks like we want to move him off a bluffcatcher, but realizing a 1/2 bet probably isn't enough. I'm not sure his calling range is all too different against our riversizing. I mean, Imagine in villains shoes: how happy are you when you face a normal sized b/x/b line against your bluffcatchers (Qx, weaker Ax etc) ob this board? I'm kind of speculating here, but I don't really think an overbet looks that much stronger here.

trainwreckog · 07-10-2012, 08:14 AM

feel free to correct me if i'm wrong, but i don't think it is a coincidence that op posted a hand where he at least strongly considered overbetting the river after the turn got checked through, and op happened to have one of the very few combos he could ever have for value with that line (7x).

i don't see any posts of hands where any op's are posting hands where they checked the turn back and then were contemplating overbetting brick rivers as a bluff.

domir · 07-10-2012, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nirwanda

The reason I like overbetting this river is because it looks like we want to move him off a bluffcatcher, but realizing a 1/2 bet probably isn't enough. I'm not sure his calling range is all too different against our riversizing. I mean, Imagine in villains shoes: how happy are you when you face a normal sized b/x/b line against your bluffcatchers (Qx, weaker Ax etc) ob this board? I'm kind of speculating here, but I don't really think an overbet looks that much stronger here.

The better the villain is the more I like your reasoning, but given villain is basicly unknown I would bet normal like 3/4 pot.

blainestar · 07-10-2012, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nirwanda

I mean, Imagine in villains shoes: how happy are you when you face a normal sized b/x/b line against your bluffcatchers (Qx, weaker Ax etc) ob this board? I'm kind of speculating here, but I don't really think an overbet looks that much stronger here.

IMO it looks a lot stronger
With a ~psb hero can have 7x, weaker Ax + AK that went for pot control, + bluffs.
With a OB hero is pretty much repping 7x and bluffs.
For a competent player like OJ vs a competent villain this would be an LOL bad bluff line. Why not just bomb the turn? Who checks back the wettest board on earth ott to overbet jam this river.

I'd still fire this turn a high % of the time though

nuggetz87 · 07-11-2012, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blainestar

With a ~psb hero can have 7x, weaker Ax + AK that went for pot control, + bluffs.
With a OB hero is pretty much repping 7x and bluffs.

...why is that?

oldjude · 07-11-2012, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nuggetz87

...why is that?

+1. I could for sure overbet river w Ax or AK.