Had no info on villain. Game was 2-4, 6 handed.

Hero in BB: 8 8

UTG open raises to $6, button flats, Hero flats.

FLOP:

Q T 8

Hero donk bets 2/3 pot.

UTG flats, button folds.


TURN:

J

Hero check calls a 1/2 sized pot bet.

RIVER:

3

Hero checks, villain over bets-- $100 into a roughly $85 pot.


Hero's play? (again, no read/no info on villain)

It's impossible to put villain on a range of hands with a 9, but Q9 certainly has to be in his range. Of the other speculative 9s there are : T9, 99, J9 ofc , K9, and possibly 89. But this hand is complicated by the fact that hero is OOP. By checking the turn and river, villain is wide open to try to steal this pot, thus expanding his range (range of hands that hero's set beats).

We lose again QQ(3), TT(3), JJ (3), AK (16) if villain is not a monkey I dont see profit to call here (not enought bluff in his range). Easy fold

Would he bet so big with any of those non AK hands on this board though? His over bet tells me straight or bluff.

the reason you check the river is with the intention of calling (barring any reads)

Youve induced a bluff here so you should be calling with a higher frequency; also you have a very strong hand (ahead of any 2P hands he could have and bet; hes not betting his 1P hands like this (probaby)

I dont know if this is live or online; From my experience (live)players at these limits so rarely overbet bluff, which would lean you towards a fold in this spot; but online I think you should be calling

Not really a huge fan of the donk lead on this board even more so if you think villain can have J9 in his range.

I do think its hard for villain to really have any 9s besides 99 and A9s suited after raising UTG. However, i think his line looks ALOT like AK. This is a pretty bad line as a bluff and AK just makes perfect sense. He calls flop with 2 overs and GS. bets turn when he makes the nuts. once you call turn i don't think many people try to bluff you on turn. Looks like he is trying to extract max value from a 9 IMO.

lawl, villain's not doing this with 2-pair. Villain knows that we can't have the nuts here, so he can do this with the nuts himself for value vs 9x, but he can also be doing it with 9x himself trying to get us off a chop because he knows that he's freerolling. I've got a bridge to sell to anyone who truly thinks we're good 35% of the time here.

vil raised 6 on a 2-4 table. That's essentially a limp and I would automatically exclude AK, QQ and JJ from his range. At the same time 9x speculative hands are now a big part of his range. I would lead otf since you can get a lot of value from TP and two pairs. Ott x/c is fine and fold otr. Size is screaming for value.

I would also raise Squeeze PF against 2 "limpers"

Hint: it's 200nl hand op is an imposter

???

not winning often enough to call the river. villain checks back some hands that he perceives to hand showdown value.

just gotta fold

Readless I think this is a simple fold. I don't see enough obvious bluffs. I keep it simple and just fold.