Originally Posted by smellmuth
he barrels JJ+,QJ,KQ+,AK,67s,89s,9Ts,KT for sure. undiscounted thats 53 value combos and 36 open enders/gutshots. with 53 value combos he has to fold 32 combos for shove to break even, assuming 18% equity when called, so shove is profitable if he barrels every AK and doesnt 3bet 66/77. its gonna be pretty close either way. that also assumes he folds KT and 9T, which if he doesn't is a disaster for you, since thats 22 undiscounted combos so he only has to spazz occasionally with those hands to make our play unprofitable with this specific hand. also, although sizing doesn't indicate it, he could have AJ as well and might call off with that too since you rep pretty much nothing but a draw jamming on this texture.
Agreed, also the turn card that came is a terrible card for our opponent in view of our range because it smacks us so hard. I think we have very little fold equity. Maybe AK if he even decides to barrel that. Our opponent isn't even leaving any room really for him to triple barrel the river which puts him more at a value hand here. I am folding turn always against a competent opponent with this hand.