Oh come on... there's no flush and only one straight on board. Even nitty mcnitterson is jamming a set of 3's on the river.

This is my point, this matters a lot, and 55 also beats 33.


Actually no, no hes not.



Anyhow, this isn't going anywhere, lol.

oops quoted myself!

dude, u played live for long enough to know that old recreational guys very seldom raise vs such a strong line w anything less than like 2nd or 3rd nuts.

I disagree that Villain views 99 differently as 33. That said, I don't think he ever has worse than 33 as a value jam except MAYBE K9.

Have seen enough 'passive' guys blow up on river with missed fdraws. There is an excitement in bluffing, especially live when hands don't come along too often. Add the valuehands that you beat, and call

I think he's got:

85% 67cc
10% k5s
5% 55

sorry, had to. hehe, this thread.

Nitty McNitterson is def not jamming 3s here but it's a call with pot odds as such and I'd verge on saying the original post is an anti climax. The analysis is done and i think people are underestimating his bluff frequency vs a triple barrel making this, for me, a call all day long.

The question is how often we're ahead on the river, and I think we're almost always behind.
I smile and call

I give us 37.5% here as a rough estimate, and make a crying call. I think the general point Nate's making is good in that even if most older guys will have a pretty narrow range here, a few are going to be fairly wide here as well, calling down light, and then raising river with K5/55 type stuff. In real life though, we'd usually have a more detailed read based on just how the guy is dressed and stuff and it would usually be a more clear call or fold, but envisioning the guy as a tourist with a decent amount of money who's still on the older side, I'd call this. It's close enough though that I'd fold 55, and it wouldn't take much more of a live read to make me fold it.

so what did he have?

It's unlikely the same percentage gets away from a crying call in real life.

When I voted

34 votes under 50%
42 votes over 50%

I agree with Boccia on this one. Too much info already covered but I think this is a crying call at best.

Andrew,

I dont think you are right or you must be playing in some damn nitty live games! You have to call here, you beat enough of his worse value hands and I dont think 99/KK/67cc scare me enough given price and that KK is discounted a lot cuz of preflop and 99/KK wont always take this line postflop.

The idiot factor live cant be discounted either, where he can have AA/K5/33/something random. If you play super nitty live games I can see why people always want to fold here but without more information on the opponent this is a trivial stackoff and while you have sound reasoning I think your assumptions are way off base.