I agree with this.

The advantage of calling here OOP lies in villain value betting worse and bluffing. If you don't think he'll do that (you think he checks behind AJ and isn't bluffing much on turn), then it seems raising is better because his calling range is wider than his betting range. (It's a two tone board, so you could be raising with flush draws maybe)

Against more aggro villains, calling is probably best. Against this guy, seems raising is better.

raising flop seems kinda bad, but protected pots always kind of mess me up. Really don't feel like people bluff them a lot which I guess would be a case for raising as we want to get $ in the pot and won't be able to bluff catch a lot. But at the same time given all of that it seems really bad for us to be bluff raising the flop, so our range looks absurdly strong. Probably AT+ and gutters with fd's.

Also don't know why people are discounting KJ so much from villains range. Plenty of regs flat KJ here pf imo, it's what 55 to win 100? So CO needs about 33%(?) equity to flat pf vs BBs perceived range of 77+, AT+? Add in the fact that you could play a deep pot vs the SB who will want to tag along a decent bit.

Oh I probably also fold river if I can force myself too, don't feel many people play AQ like this. What do they want to get called by? Exactly AT?

im still in the call camp. if im villain i have no reason to think AQ/AT isn't good on the river

Hey Jude,

I haven't played poker in a while, but how do you play AQ here if you're villain? Do you bet smaller on river? Do you bet turn?


I dunno, we need to call like 850 to win a total pot of 1900 so we need to be right like 44% of the time. There are 9 combos of AQ and 3 combos of AA we lose to for a total of 12 combos. We probably discount AQ somewhat based on bet sizing? Does AQ bet turn? Let's say we beat a total of 9 combos? We lose to like 4 combos of KJs and some combos of KJo if he has that in his range... let's say total of 8 combos?


I dunno, my main question is how you play AQ? All streets? Do you check flop sometimes? Check turn?

I am almost certain this is a call given preflop. His range can be pretty wide, and even with the river jam his value range still loses a good amount to Hero's hand. Add that into a range with a small amount of value that we lose to, + bluffs, +underrepping our hand immensely= call.

Joowish, we need to be good here like 30,5 %

how about there are two pots going and a single percentage can not sufficiently express how often we need to win in order to call. its no likely but totally possible that we lose the main pot but win the side pot.


to those raising flop, what other hand(s) would you raise there? I suspect you have no clue what you are doing.

+1, the arguments put forward for raising are just horrible.

This thread is like the twilight zone. If someone besides OJ posted this hand they'd tell him to move it small stakes and stop being so results oriented(no offense OJ, I enjoy your strat posts/contribution). If we assume raising the flop is terrible(which I don't agree with), it still has to be miles ahead of flat calling and folding anywhere with this board/run out. Your reads on this guy would have to be ****ing amazing to fold this hand after playing it how you did.

winna winna chicken dinna

How about a good rationale for raising flop?

why would villain have kj or even kj suited? makes no sense at all to me. assuming he does not hit he loses anyway and if he hits he s less likely to win money from the hand.

I don't necessarily think raising the flop is the nuts. Imo it depends way too much on OJs image/history/current game flow etc with villain for us to say clearly raising sucks and flatting is the nutter butters. What I think does suck is being light years ahead of your perceived range, in a 3 bet pot, with 3rd set and flush draw bricking,never putting in a single raise, and folding on a safe-ish run out. Obv OJ got beat here but overall you're going to own yourself so much more trying to make hero folds in spots like this than you would just hitting the call button and taking it on the chin.

Maybe if the guy is the worlds biggest nit who doesn't vb 33 and AQ and won't ever bluff here (even though OJs range can almost never call a shove here) then I could see this being close or maybe a fold.

I dunno, I guess if there's this much discussion on both sides maybe it's not as clear cut as I think but I just couldn't ever hit the fold button here without some airtight, his neck is pulsating and he gulped, type online reads

Yeah, I mean ended up calling cos I knew I was seriously underrepped and if he was just f***in' around early in the hand I thought he'd feel compelled to go down with the ship.

I wasn't really concerned with my flop play, but I appreciate all the input on the hand, it reassures me i'm not quite as big a station as I thought .

If you are in villains shoes what do you perceive OJs calling range to be on the river?

To me the hand is just really weird bc of the protected main pot on the flop.