My session stats is 19/14/af2.69/3bet3.8 1330 hands

The villain is 19/15/af3.8/3bet9.3 441 hands

I hit the nuts on flop and I overbet the pot to thin the field, charge for draws and get value from +TP.

Turn action?

River action?

$2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

BTN: $433.82 (108.5 bb)
SB: $491.46 (122.9 bb)
BB: $439.60 (109.9 bb)
Hero (UTG): $455.04 (113.8 bb)
MP: $468.88 (117.2 bb)
CO: $339.58 (84.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8 9
Hero raises to $8, MP calls $8, CO calls $8, BTN folds, SB calls $6, BB calls $4

Flop: ($40) T 7 J (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $56, 3 folds, BB calls $56

Turn: ($152) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($152) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $120, Hero ???

fold now and very well played on every street bro

fold river.

usually a flush bets the turn here so your range is face up on the river.

Bet the turn and look for timing tells to determine opponents hand strength. If he snap calls your turn bet, then bet river as well as he probably is far behind you.

As played I personally call unless my opponent never seems to bet... but that is rarely the case.
btw u bet way 2 much when u have it and i'm guessing bet small when u don't.

Not really sure how you can ever consider checking turn. Bet/folding there is much better than checking and flatting his river bet.

Really? 4 callers, and you don't think he called my flop cbet(overbet) with FD?

It seems obvious to me that I'm beat here on river.

However, I find your point of view very interesting so. Keep it coming.

Bet turn for 1/2-3/4 pot to check back the river. Don't let a free club peel off on river.

What's a good bet size on turn

I think most opponents will probably never fold 2 pair / set / overpair /AJ / KJ / QJ to your over bet without a read that you overbet nutted hands (and even if they know that they still might not fold). Lots of people will fold their flush draw unless they somehow have str8 outs and or overcards as well when you over bet. Villain could also have something like QK/Q9 and think he's going to mess you up if he hits.

Yes the flush got there and opponent could also have a boat. But i think a lot of the time people will bet JT, QQ, kk, AA, KQ, Q9, AJ, KJ (sometimes) all of which you are ahead of + its not a ton of money so i call (unless opponent has seen me over bet nutted hands in the past and or rarely seems to bet or never goes for loose value).

villain doesnt have QQ KK AA given pre, mucks a bare KQ Q9 and most AJ KJ on the flop and never bets it OTR, and is not going to just spazbet JT here because he has twopair.

so yep snapfold

If you're so confident that your turn check back is good, then river is the easiest fold ever.

river is good yeah

flop is absurd.. ly strange. I'm pretty sure I never ever want to overbet anything there. At the same time it's not impossibru to contruct an OK overbet range and it might work exploitively cause people don't like folding draws..

why did you overbet flop? Id be c/cing this specific hand as a default btw.

feels like you just owned yourself with this line as i can see some better villains floating this pretty wide to target your turn checkback range on 1liners/clubs.

No one likes a jam on river? Villains range is capped towards flushes (expect him to raise all sets on flop) and we can credibly represent boats with the line taken.

well that happens with any bet size, doesn't it. if the bigger bet size induces more floats Im happy as **** to bet the nuts like that eh.

ofc, but when we checkback this turn after cbetting 4way and opening utg i think good villain will deduce we dont have a flush particularly often and he can have lots.

People do have AA-QQ there sometimes. I know because I could easily show up with those hands as i only 3 bet them vs opponents that peel light or are incorrectly 4 betting my 3 bet range. Sometimes there is more value in having those hands post flop IP vs people that never give you credit post flop but play super honest pre flop + you have the added value of people squeezing and you can now come over the top and they will never give you credit for a hand.

People don't like to fold top pair period. Most people justify to themselves that villain is over betting his draw to gain additional fold equity so they call top pair regardless of kicker and amount of people in the pot. Now similarly if villain has a draw and is facing an over bet they usually peel especially if they have position because they justify it to themselves that they will get paid off if they hit (which is rarely the case but whatever). If it was that easy to get people to fold top pair I'd over bet WAAAAAY more. But it isn't. I'd say villain usually has to get burned on average 2x from a certain action such as calling weak holdings vs an over bet before their actions permanently change. Prior to those 2x getting burned its a crapshoot and they make up justifications for calling just about everything (especially if they have position).

My point is: You can't just say this is a fold or a call as there are 2 many factors regarding previous history that are not available for analysis. And yes people do spazzbet JT. I would never not "spazzbet" JT in this situation as i would probably somehow justify it to myself that PFR could have a Jack (never has a flush after checking turn) and will never fold to my $120 bet. I wouldn't put him on a srt8 due to his early opening position and if he has a full house then he'll probably just raise me in which case i'll fold.

Shove. You rep a boat extremely well and have no air other than possibly kq in your range

+1

solid game plan as long as villain can hand read.

Villain's hand looks like quads, so gl with that.

If he folds every hand but quads do you think it's a plus ev shove?

I didn't think of that but definitely a good option. His range on river is exactly Flush but based on the sizing it's probably Nut Flush. He never plays set this way IMO. So yeah you could shove this and turn your hand into bluff on river which will work if the villain is smart.

The only problem is if he has the Nut Flush, he might level himself to call putting us on lower flush.

I usually cbet on flop 1/2 or 3/4 pot with strong hands but here I had the nuts on extremely wet flop texture and I'm oop against 4 players. I felt overbet would thin the field and charge draws and +TP better than the normal cbet size. I also think overbet doesn't necessarily give away the strength of my hand. It looks very well like TPTK or +QQ that is trying hard to fold out or thin the field, or strong semi/bluff, or pure air.

honestly think about what parts of this statement are true, accurate or part of a good overall gameplan.

I disagree with you on this one. You have the nuts oop against 4 players on super wet action flop texture. Would you rather charge max or min? Pot size bet or overbet is superior to smaller sized bets.

If you think smaller than pot size bets are better then explain it to me please.