2/5 NL

Hero on button with AQsd ($500)

Limp from CO ($800)
Hero raises to $25
CO calls

Flop ($55):
AQ5dxd

CO checks
Hero bets $30
CO raises to $75
Hero ???

Just sat down at the table, but CO has been very sticky through 10 hands. He's played a majority of them and had one hand where he flat called for $15 with AA against 3 other players.

I don't expect any players in this game to be raising with any kind of flush/straight draw, Ax, or Qx. Is it best just to flat and raise turn or raise now to pump more value into the pot?

I wouldn’t 3-bet the flop with this info.

I'm just calling

I prefer raise, i just don't think this xr sizing from CO is credible and want to extract value from a5, diamond draws and other ax.

I realize this isn't a terrible flat, especially with queen of diamonds, but also seems like flatting this hand could also ruin having a sound re-raise range. Which again is a problem vs. Smaller 2.5x sizing.

Villain is also described as sticky, which means that despite bad plays like flatting aa preflop, we still have greenlight to go for value against wide range here.

Obviously OP’s reads/thoughts could be off, but they’re definitely an important consideration given that he’s the one at the table. He said the following:

———-
I think this is heavily weighted towards sets, given that this particular V can have AA and QQ despite just flatting pre. That being said, I’m not good enough to fold just yet without more history/for this price.

I get it. It's just a case where there is evidence we should step back from OP's read for a second.

1. Villain has 80%+ vpip in short sample
2. Villain limp-calls some big pairs at some frequency
3. Villain is sticky

These 3 points, and card removal, strongly suggest that villain has xrs that are not just sets. Villain does not sound like a no set, no bet player. And even in this short sample his play can perhaps be viewed as erratic. I think its fair to say that many players with 80% vpip have fishy min-raises in the wheelhouse.

Call is still a good option. I'm mostly arguing that i don't see enough read-based evidence to want to dismiss raise too quickly. Realistically, hero should almost never fold this hand at any point, and its mostly a tactical question of the best way to get in the money. Getting coolered for 100bb is no big deal. I think $200 spr on turn gives villain more of an escape valve.

I call and come over the top of any bet on turn if it’s it a diamond.
I don’t mind getting it in with 2 pair against a maniac.