do some quick back of the *** packet math on how much he is making playing 200-300k hands a month at 100% rakeback

IS FTP down? down on 2 connections for me :/

Working fine for me

Meh last couple of months I've averaged less than 150k/month but I get your point and props to you for putting your money where your mouth is figured you would just not post again!

Obv the amount of action I would need to do this considering I am zero star on Stars and shipping the 100% rakeback on FT would be insane - guessing, but would prob need to be 100k min.


Was really just making the point that 3bb is absolutely huge. Once you account for the slightly lower bb/100 rake, more hours to effectively game select due to increased liquidity etc.

If you extrapolate a little as well if it was 3bb gap between zoom500 and rush 400 that implies that gap between zoom200and zoom500 is likely greater than say 4bb/100? I think if that was the case you would almost never see regs moving up in stakes.

Sparky,

I think we've gone down that rabbit hole about as far as we should.

I brought it up to begin with because it is my opinion that rush games are disproportionately softer than zoom and wanted to see if that was a shared opinion or not.

Stars regs are married to their VIP program, their software, midstakes action 24hrs/day, etc.

-

Looking at the underground tracking sites it seems there are 4 zoom regs winning at 5bb+ over 200k+ hands this year (more than I expected, there was only 1 active player winning at 5bb last I checked ~6months ago)

how much do you think the best rush regs are winning at? in terms of bb/100

since there are no tracking sites for rush you probably have the biggest DB on this

Not including bum hunters I don't think anyone is making over 6bb over any real sample size in the 400 games. Not in my database at least. Last year there were probably 3 people consistently clearing 6bb/100.

Anyways back to some important things - check out my boss attempt at carving a pumpkin for Halloween!

Sister did this one

from 2014, owner of sample asked not to be named


so there is at least 1, I don't think the guy is THAT good so i'd guess there are others as well or maybe he's just on a heater

very nice pumpkins btw ^^

Like I said real sample size (min 500k) - not a bumhunter.

220,000 hands in 10 months lol



Put a bounty on it? - 1million hand sample all from 2014 with winrate above 6evbb/100 at 400 Rush - I'd ship them $100 to see that.

I think 220k hands is good enough to start looking at winrates:

220k hands @ 7.37bb/100:


70% confidence true winrate was between 5.45 bb and 9.29 bb
95% confidence true winrate was between 3.53 bb and 11.21 bb

compared to 500k hand sample which would put you at:

70% confidence true winrate was between 6.1 bb and 8.64 bb
95% confidence true winrate was between 4.82 bb and 9.92 bb

Of course the bigger the sample the better but the difference is not drastic, certainly a 220k hand sample qualifies as "real"


I see where you're coming from though since you put in massive amounts of hands at a lower winrate you probably have 200k hand breakeven or even losing stretches all the time even though you know you're a winning player

220k hands @ 1.5bb/100:


you'll be down 21% of the time (vs 0.0006% if your winrate was 7.37bb)

and as the confidence intervals suggest, this player's true winrate could easily be <0bb/100
--

link to variance calculator: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

it's understandable you think 220k hands in 10 months is funny or suggest bum hunter, you've probably played 1-2mil hands

however, if you did not have 100% rakeback and were a rush reg making 6bb+/100 hands wouldn't you also play bigger games? Some won't bother, most would. In the case of the player in question I know he just plays rush when bigger games are not running

All variables considered, I think it's very reasonable this player had a true winrate of >6bb/100 over the 220k sample

FTP rake increasing like on PS?

Oh I totally agree - what I'm saying is if he was playing 100k hands a month I don't think he would maintain much above 6bb.

I'm not saying there aren't players out there who could beat the games for more than 6bb - I'm saying that right now nobody is putting in volume month in month out with a winrate above 6bb/100.

Anything is possible - I just don't think it's happening right now and if it is not for more than 1 maybe 2 guys.

Also a higher stakes guy who plays 10-20k hands a month at rush when he's waiting to get seats is not really a Rush Reg - which is what I thought the question was. If your saying what is the maximum anybody in the world could beat those games for over a significant sample then 8-10bb/100 might be reasonable maybe even 12bb but I don't think knowing that really achieves anything.

I know as much as you - doesn't seem like it needs a rocket scientist to guess with FTP parting ways with Gus and Viktor and their new marketing approach that other changes are likely coming before the end of the year.

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG CashleyCole ($400) 100bb
UTG+1 josht7 ($1,072.10) 268bb
CO birgha777 ($116.55) 29bb
BTN zeon5 ($618.50) 155bb
SB GROZA33 ($362) 91bb
BB bergerehni ($471.70) 118bb

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) josht7 is UTG+1 10 10
CashleyCole raises to $12, josht7 calls $12, 3 folds, bergerehni calls $8

Flop: 5 10 4 ($38, 3 players)
bergerehni checks, CashleyCole bets $20, josht7 calls $20, bergerehni folds

Turn: 9 ($78, 2 players)
CashleyCole checks, josht7 bets $40, CashleyCole calls $40

River: 5 ($158, 2 players)
CashleyCole checks, josht7 bets $100, CashleyCole calls $100

Final Pot: $358
CashleyCole shows
9 9
josht7 shows a full house, Tens full of Fives
10 10

josht7 wins $355 (net +$183)

bergerehni lost $12
CashleyCole lost $172
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superuser

How is he a beast?

Preflop. UTG opens. MP Cold Calls.
What exactly should be paying a river raise off on the river? What does your bluffing range look like in this spot?

hmmm, think river call is kind of reasonable.

unsure about flop and turn.

man shut the **** up

Face it Josh your over the hill - not enough triple range merging to keep up with todays games.

Can I transfer my notes from full tilt to full tilt UK? Lost all colour codes etc.

Can copy relevant files from .com folder to .uk folder.

colourcodes will be in the playinwitdreams.xml file no idea where notes are kept though

can't seem to get my hm2 hud working with full tilt uk either, anybody else had issues? Hands are importing, both running as admin, not sure what i'm doing wrong. HUD is working on normal tables and it appears when I sit out in rush.