BTN: $767.16 (153.4 bb)
SB: $516.90 (103.4 bb)
BB: $706.90 (141.4 bb)
UTG: $846.94 (169.4 bb)
MP: $1,883.80 (376.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $679.10 (135.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K J
2 folds, Hero raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($31.50) 7 J 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $24, BTN raises to $70, Hero calls $46

Turn: ($171.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($171.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero ?


it's a long time ago since I've posted a hand on a forum, so here we go again.

Villain is super aggro pre, 3bets a ton out of the blinds vs steals, ~11% otb and 13% vs the co (overall stats, not btn vs co or anything), coldcalls ~11% too over quite a big sample. I gotta say that I never really paid much attention to what he's 3betting or coldcalling, so I had no idea at the time.

He's been quite aggro postflop, barreled a bunch, even with weird 3rd pair hands that didn't really make too much sense, but almost always gave up on his bluffs by the river.

So I'm wondering, should I vbet vs his 98, T8 hands and rep 3x, 65, 54, other floats? Sizing? Will he ever bluff if I check?

I would fire off about 122. It's a trending thing to raise cbets and then check down w weak tp or mid pair hands now.

Id prob check this particular flop/river combo but be valuebetting a lot of other ones. I would prob fold to a decent sized bet or call a smallish one, but would def call 100% vs some ofc

depending on villain, id either bet 115, or C/C bets, ?overbets?

Yeah I'd bet as standard, $124, it's not as if he's shown much strength after c/b turn, and by checking I don't think he's going to bluff frequently + you play perfectly vs his strat of raising then sding mid strength hands. Get's interesting if he raises, I'd likely call due to him probably barreling 910 on the turn, his value range being small in general and in his mind, he appears very strong.

mind to elaborate a little bit on this?


And to all others: If river was a 3, how would that change our plan? I guess OJ would still bet with the assumptions you posted, right?

This is what happened

River: ($171.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $116, BTN raises to $365

probably just fold. he could have t9 or 88.

Sounds like a good plan. It's all about how often he'll turn hands into bluffs and how often he thinks you'll turn hands into bluffs. All options are certainly up for consideration against different players at different times in this spot.

I'd bet by default because you'd bet your bluffs and because his default is very unlikely to be to bluff when you check the river. You won't have too many 7x hands relative to Jx hands in your checking range, at least by default, and so you might as well attempt to get value from a worse Jx or an 8x hand and occasionally worse.

agree with mperich. I dont see villian calling with 8x if we bet (atleast not often enough) and i dont think he plays weaker jx like this often enough either.

having troubles thinking of a hand that bet calls this flop and now needs to bluff this riv

+1 to all of this... and how many bluffs can we really have here?

no?

not sure if he perceives us to bluff with 7x to fold out his 8x, but probably not with this sizing.

are you suggesting we shouldnt vbet the river with anything?

unless its perceived that you are bet calling this flop often with hands like A highs, but I think villains range is heavily weighted towards either hands that are definitely folding such as 89/air or hands like maybe 88/9T that are raising. It's also conceivable that he decides this is a good spot to bluff raise river given he might think he can get a lot of credit for 9T here, so if we do bet I think it should be to bet/call with that read.