Never folding in game.

In afterthought I dont hate it and I think your reasoning is sound.

I think you're a decent amount of the time, more than people here think; you should still probably call though.

Interesting hand

you can go a really long way in analyzing this hand by making some preflop assumptions. specifically, how confident are you in the frequency with which villain opens key hands like 65s, A6s, 86s, 22? Ingenol makes a very good point that there are no combos of 76s in V's range. In any case, if the sixes are not in villain's range and the 22 is, we can fold since we don't beat a single value combo, and we probably don't expect villain to bluff raise with 88-AA or some 7x combo he somehow plays.

Now, let's make it interesting and say villain plays 65s and A6s and 22 but not 86s (which I think sounds most plausible). As far as villain's line, I'm not shocked to see him play any 6x combo or quads combo like this (though I can definitely envision other lines which are probably better- I'm just talking about how people in fact do play). Anyways, making no postflop assumptions w/r/t villain's range, that gets us to the river with 4 combos we beat and 2 we lose to, and we are gettting 2.3 to 1.

Our line really, really looks like 6x to me, but I'll give us a whole bunch of flopped sets just to be congruent with OP. Say we call flop with the preflop combos 64(2)/65(2)/86(2)/A6(2) and then (to pick a round number) all of our 22(1)/77(3)/66(1)/76(4). That gets us to the river with 8:9 6s full: better in V's eyes. Now, say villain holds 6x: in that case we hold 4:5 6's full:better, making any potential raise to take us off a chop highly -EV relative to call given V risks $936:$610.

So, the short answer is that if we think villain raises 6x or a bluff more than ~1/4th of the time then we should call (given preflop assumptions). One reason to call is that villain might think we very rarely slowplay a set on the flop this deep, and so villain might think we are near capped at 6x, and so villain might think he can raise with impunity thinking his range is less capped than ours, and thinking hero might fold the chop sometimes. Or he might just raise because he thinks he is always at least chopping.

Say instead we slowplay a flopped set 1/3 and a flopped 76 1/2- now we have 8 6x combos versus 4 better. As slowplay flop frequency decreases, we become more and more exploitable by bet/folding 6x+ hands on the end.

Anyways, let's say villain is clairvoyant and knows we fold 77 to his jam. Say he holds 6x. In that case, we bet 9 combos on the river and call with 1-2 of them (do you call 76 and not 77?), making his raise very exploitative of our strategy. So if your panties are really in a bunch in this spot, then you can play a mixed strat with 77/76 such that villain is indifferent to raising with 6x as opposed to calling with it.

I'd just raise flop though, top set hurr durr hurr

And I mean, I said this hand was interesting insofar as counting combos in weird narrow range spots is kinda cool. But I'd never fold here in a billion years without some rock-solid preflop read that he can't have 6x combined with some rock-solid postflop read that he won't spazz off one in a thousand hands.

I think your reasoning is pretty good tbh, but I would still never fold. He needs to spazz like once in a billion years for us to make this a call, and he probably does.

i'm not trying to say i'm 100% right folding here (because i know i'm not), just wanted to get some disscusion going about this, imo quite interesting, hand
thanks for some strategy input, finally

hah I remember wondering why you tanked so long (had the 6s)

don't think you should fold given what you knew at the time.. tourney regs are usually huge spazzy idiots

This

Also, lol @ folding toppest boat to a tourney player

op is a confirmed superuser

too bad we arent deeper so we can get him off 22

this thread makes me miss 2007-2010 soooooo bad. I'd like to time travel and post OP 3 years ago and read the replies. you think people are "durrr hurrr top boat!"-ing now...

in 2008 every1 would shove naked 6 OTR ;-P

You seriously giving him credit for quads? Snap call and fist pump when he shows you the A6s

A+

1) If you have all the answers, why are you making the thread? You had a read and went with it, and you seem to believe it was correct, so why post in an attempt to confirm what you seemingly already know? You thought folding then was fine and you do after the fact, so why discuss it?

2) You've got $425 invested, folding top boat for another $660 is weak.

3) If he has quads, checking the river to you is a horrid way to get stacks in. He's got another $936 to get in the center, almost 3x the pot. What does he expect you to have that will bet a sizable amount on the river AND call a CRAI for it all?

4) Bottom line, this is a cooler, nothing more. If he has 66 or 22, he cooled you after one outing you on a later street. You take your lumps and move on.