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Old 02-07-2012, 04:36 PM   #16
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

@Shootaa: agree with what youre saying, that's why I think against this specific villain my line is good.
By the way, I just check-fold flop against someone with such a low fold to cbet.
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Old 02-07-2012, 05:52 PM   #17
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodCallYouWin View Post
i would probably check call. i don't think u are going to get a ton of credit for a river bet here and if u r raised u r either beat or chopping. could def. see a bluff raise here i think it's a very credible threat given u 3 bet pre which u surely might not do with some 8x hands.
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Originally Posted by imfromsweden View Post
check/calling sounds awesome
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Originally Posted by shootaa View Post
You check and call to win half the pot by risking twice the pot some of the time... sounds like a bad plan. Check calling with an 8 seems amazing, though.

If you overbet shove, you think that 33% of his range doesn't have an 8 in it.

If 33%+ or whatever math is (LOL NUMBERS) of his range is 8x, you check-fold.

Check-shoving opportunities could come up, but I think you'll run into 8x too often if the average player gives you room to check-raise here.
this is a huge leak , check calling i mean . You are getting valuetowned when you are behind, and if you are splitting you are just getting money in neutrally. This is a -ev situation or neutral situation only, never positive.

also check raising is absolutely terrible for the same reason. Check raising the river is giving villain big odds with a straight on the board, if villain ever folds to a CRAI it is a big error. Its really rarely happening, and sometimes, villain has an 8 , so you lose a % of the time, and the rest of the time split. So that is not good.

also sometimes we have an 8 here. shoving here playing the board also balances when we do have an 8.
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Old 02-07-2012, 11:58 PM   #18
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

OB jam, not close
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Old 02-08-2012, 03:38 AM   #19
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

Do you guys really think he folds a split very often if we bet or shove? I guess I just think he's going to call his splits pretty often, and if we shove we just lose a lot more vs 8x vs when we just check/call.
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Old 02-08-2012, 05:43 AM   #20
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

But he's going to shove like every time we check it I think. So when we c/c his shove we lose every time he has 8x and scoop only 1/2 the pot when he doesn't.
Even if he calls every time we jam we still only lose the same amount of money, and it's unrealistic to think we don't fold out chops ever.
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Old 02-08-2012, 06:01 AM   #21
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

yeah obv if we think he shoves 100% of the time if we check then shoving ourselves is better, not completely convinced he does that tho
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Old 02-08-2012, 08:45 AM   #22
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

I would jam it in. I agree that people do rebluff in this spot quite a bit
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Old 02-08-2012, 06:21 PM   #23
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

seems to me like he can't have 8x too often... only 78 and 88. anyone agree?
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Old 02-08-2012, 07:28 PM   #24
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Re: NL400 - odd river spot

he plays pretty bad and he can have a lot more 8x than that unfortunately for those who want to jam here.
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