Ongame Network $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1626401
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

WhyZoSerious (UTG): $430.00
KrisDraper (CO): $561.00
tevtonik (BTN): $484.85
Hero (SB): $396.00
the_doubting (BB): $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with Q K
1 fold, KrisDraper raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $35, 1 fold, KrisDraper calls $25

Flop: ($74.00) 3 7 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $42.00, KrisDraper calls $42

Turn: ($158.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, KrisDraper checks

River: ($158.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero ???


Villain is weakish reg playing 31/24, agf 1,8, raise 1st CO 48, fold to 3b 37, fold to cbet 37, went to showdown 24. I have new account on OnGame so he should not have any reads on me.


What do you prefer here?

a) Check/fold
b) Check/call
c) Bet with normal sizing/fold (or even call?)
d) OB shove (we have about 2x pot left)
e) CRAI


Also reasoning for your preferred line would be appreciated!


Thank you

thx

im villian. just reported you for multiaccounting.

hahaha

anyway its against everything to post hands with screennames...

Is it illegal to chance skins on Ongame?

No its not, but I guess its not good to post screennames here.

That was an accident obv and i can't edit that post anymore

i would probably check call. i don't think u are going to get a ton of credit for a river bet here and if u r raised u r either beat or chopping. could def. see a bluff raise here i think it's a very credible threat given u 3 bet pre which u surely might not do with some 8x hands.

check/calling sounds awesome

You check and call to win half the pot by risking twice the pot some of the time... sounds like a bad plan. Check calling with an 8 seems amazing, though.

If you overbet shove, you think that 33% of his range doesn't have an 8 in it.

If 33%+ or whatever math is (LOL NUMBERS) of his range is 8x, you check-fold.

Check-shoving opportunities could come up, but I think you'll run into 8x too often if the average player gives you room to check-raise here.

you propably meant 16,5%, but thats still untrue if villian is likely to check back chops

Shove and scoop when he folds..lose the fraction of times he has an 8..split when he makes a sick call

I like shoving it is close though. Need villain to fold 66% of the time to break even. His range should not have many 8x hands that called after the flop. Especially if he is weak tight. Your range could definitely have an 8 in it. Lets give villain a range of 88-QQ, AKs for times he floats. Also a range of 78s. If I stove this range then he has an 8 in his hand that beats you 24% of the time. I think he rarely calls here to chop with you. If we take out AKs out of his range then he can have an 8 in his range 27% of the time. Interesting spot but shove is way better then check calling.


Here is the math on check calling. We lose 25% of the time on average if he 2/3 pots it. So

27% of the time we lose 105= ($28.35)
63% of the time we win $79= $49.77
Calling has an
EV of $21.42

Shoving we win $158 70% of the time roughly. =$110.6
chop 5% of the time. So 158/2*.05= $3.95
lose $319 25% of the time. = ($79.75)

Shoving has an
EV of $34.80 assuming he rarely floats and we give him a tight range.

b/c ship it vs k9

Here being oop is a huge advantage because you're first to act on the river. Bet-folding pot seems good to me.

Math wizard confirms 33.33%. We aren't talking about giving Villain an opportunity to check back. We are discussing how often he needs to fold to our shove.

Against a tight passive player, we can get more bang for our buck, sure. Against a solid regular who knows you'll be betting here close to 100% AND that he probably has slightly more 8x hands in his range means that you'll be lighting way more money on fire trying to bet/fold than by shoving twice the pot.