NL200 set flop, full turn VS raise/push river - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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NL200 set flop, full turn VS raise/push river

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03-28-2014 , 06:40 AM

iloveUSAfish

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 35

Poker Stars, $1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #25322791

CO: $237.40 (118.7 bb)
BTN: $166.15 (83.1 bb)
SB: $203.66 (101.8 bb)
Hero (BB): $218.89 (109.4 bb)
MP: $373.70 (186.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8

MP folds, CO raises to $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($9) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($9) J

(2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero raises to $24, CO calls $20

River: ($57) K

(2 players)
Hero bets $50, CO raises to $209.40 and is all-in

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

Hero?

oppo stats VPIP: 19, PFR: 12, 3B: 2, AF: 1,4, Hands: 326
no much info vs villan...looks tight passive

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03-28-2014 , 07:44 AM

TIMMEH

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 89

I dont like your turn sizing, i think its a bit too big.
It would be quitte an exploitable fold, since i dont see many passive players v-shove less--->AQ. I also dont think alot of players are turning here hands into a bluff, or bluffraise that much ( for example A5dd).

In game i could imagine it being a correct fold vs most players, game theory wise i dont think you can fold here.

My geuss is here to see KJ like 70%+ of the time.

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03-28-2014 , 10:47 AM

tobe4funas

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 5,661

youve got a full bro

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03-28-2014 , 11:36 AM

Griffey24

adept

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 899

What are villain's cbet stats?

I would be surprised if anyone checked back JT/Jx on this type of board. I suppose it's conceivable that KJ checks back, but heavily discounted.

The only hands that maybe make sense here are KJ/KK, but even those seem unlikely after flop chk back. Q9 makes sense if he's the slow play type.

As played I think it's more likely he shows up with a straight Q9 or AQ than a boat imo.

I'm obviously never folding this. It just doesn't make sense, and when things don't make sense I click call!

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03-28-2014 , 02:46 PM

wesdaco

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 205

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griffey24

The only hands that maybe make sense here are KJ/KK, but even those seem unlikely after flop chk back. Q9 makes sense if he's the slow play type.

As played I think it's more likely he shows up with a straight Q9 or AQ than a boat imo.

The only AQ that makes sense is AdQd because nothing else is calling that HUGE overbet on the turn. Im leaning towards him having Q9 because that makes sense for his check back range. I think KJ is out of the equation because he cbets the flop with that

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03-28-2014 , 03:35 PM

noiserawker

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 39

Most people would bet top two or TPGK on that flop so if he has a boat he played it strangely. More likely is that he doesn't think you have a boat (maybe because of the large turn raise risking losing customer), and has decided his straight is good enough to go for value. I'm not folding here, also sometimes fish go crazy with trips.

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03-28-2014 , 05:41 PM

SnowmenBullets

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 132

I can't put him on a hand. The flop check is doing my head in.
Although it seems the most likely, with the double gutter and nut flush, even A

should be betting the flop.

I'm calling and I hope you did because curiosity is killing me.

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04-01-2014 , 02:07 AM

OnTilt24/7

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 215

you should call because you have a full house

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