Loose reg who 3bets 18% vs btn, no reads on his SB coldcall, he bets turn 30% oop when flop checks thru.

Hand Information
No Limit, 10 BB (4 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 1 CO ($1215)
Seat: 4 Hero ($1156.5) Dealer
Seat: 6 Villain ($3840.55) Small Blind
Seat: 9 BB ($1851.82) Big Blind
Dealt to Hero
**

Preflop (Pot:15)
CO****FOLD
Hero****RAISE $20
Villain****CALL $15
BB****FOLD

Flop(Pot: $50)
***

Villain****CHECK
Hero****CHECK

Turn(Pot: $50)
****

Villain****BET $37.5
Hero****RAISE $118
Villain****CALL $80.5

River(Pot: $286)
*****

Villain****CHECK
Hero****???

I think given your line, your perceived range looks like mostly draws that missed, and villian should Hero a bunch in this spot, So I like betting pretty 235ish+

Don't really like the turn raise and I probably check back now.

+1 there are a many draws that missed and a big bet on the river i think is the best line

he has lots of potential to xr river so unless you plan on calling I would check back

why do you say this?

looks like clear value given your line

I'm not very much into raising the turn because of the fact that I won't do that too often with my bluffs or semibluffs so I think it would be a pretty umbalanced line where you would have too few combos for bluff. It's true you don't rep much because all your strong hands are betting on the flop and you're basically repping set of 55.

On the other hand, I like the raise in case his fold to 4bet is low (something like 35-40%). In that way his 3bet will not be polarized and will include hands like J9s, 97s, T8s, 86s, TT, 88 in his 3bet range, which means he doesn't have those hands in his calling range. Given the fact he doesn't have those hands in his calling range there aren't many combos which beat you and I would gladly bet-call the river (simply because you don't rep much with your sequence and he might be aware of it and try to convert his hand into a bluff because you'll hardly ever have the nuts or set because you bet those hands on the flop and he doesn't have many combos for value because most of his strong hands in this board are 3betting pre)

So, given the fact you don't rep much and he's capped, I would choose the second option in case his 3betting range in SB vs BU is not polarized (which I think it won't)

He potentially has 66/88 and J9s in his range (we don't know his range afai can remember from op) as well as a bunch of missed draws...

I don't think he has all of the combos you mentioned given his 3bet SB vs BU. 18% of 3bet, in case it's not polarized which I doubt coming from SB, includes 88 for sure and might include some combos of J9s and 97s. As we are blocking set of 66 and he might have 1/2 combos of J9s, I think it's not a real horror to bet-call the river given the fact that the aggressor doesn't rep much on the river (J9s is betting the flop, sets are betting the flop so we don't have those hands in our range)
In case he's not 3betting 88, which I doubt, I think he might not be check-pushing the river given the fact that there aren't 50% of worse hands that are calling a shove in the river.

Him cold calling the SB defines his range a good bit, without an exact % it's fair to expect weaker broadways like QJ/A10 and maybe the odd middling pp. As he didn't 3b the turn stuff like 66/88 is unlikely, so in my eyes you only lose to q10 otr, if he's rivered the toppest of pairs with say qx spade/club he won't fold thus vbet accordingly. My main issue with the hand is the turn, having a raising range here considering what you check back the flop with seems bad for quite a few reasons.

Just how many draws do you even have here?

Yeah I also don't like my turnraise in hindsight, but curious what people thought when I got to the river like I did.

I'd just check back the river since the hand has showdown value. Bottom two pair might not necessarily be the best hand at the moment but you probably lose more by betting and getting called (or raised) vs just taking/losing the dead money in the pot.

^ wut ? You sound like we had third pair.

I'd usually Vbet, nobody ever folds Qx with a FD that hits, more importantly ppl station a lot with Tx in this spot.

Probably stupidly so, because I think the player pool underbluffs a lot here.

You sound like we have the nuts

I dunno how many Qxs hes not 3betting. I would be pretty surprised to get called down by Tx here but maybe my experience differs from others.