Poker Stars $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players -
BTN: $531.86
SB: $220.38
Hero (BB): $406.00
UTG: $369.29
MP: $1054.56
CO: $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with K J
3 folds, BTN raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($18.00) T T 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $13.40, Hero calls $13.40

Turn: ($44.80) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $33.36, Hero ?


26/21
Steal BTN: 61%
cbets: 66/52/42
afq: 43/31/21

SB was a shorty-reg

Villain is in general reasonable aggressive OTF and OTT, but way too honest OTR and had in the past mostly his bluffinflection_point there (even in legit spots to fire the 3rd one).
So I would be pretty confident that he will not bluff the river in the vast majority due to his tendencies, but also due to my perceived range - I would perceived mostly fold imo 99, 8x and most K/A-highs OTT and hence my range should be shifted towards Tx-hands OTR - you agree with this assessment?

I wonder what his 2ndbar-range would look like?
In concrete: would you think (readless on this) that he would checkback stronger Ax OTF?
What should be his worst val.betting-hand OTT?
You agree that he should 2ndbarell_bluff every single hand with any eq (like any gutter+) cause I will still have to C/F there enough?

What you think bout this range so far:

TT+,88,ATs,A8s,K9s+,Q2s+,J9s+,J7s-J6s,T7s+,97s,As7s,As6s,7s6s,As5s,7s5s,6s5s,As4s,6s 4s,5s4s,As3s,4s3s,As2s,ATo,A8o,K9o+,Q8o+,J9o+,T8o+ ,97o

Here I would have "only 31% EQ and hence it would be OTT even vs. this described villain a clear C/F imo (don`t even need to make any further analysis w CREV, I`d say) because I am OOP, have some RIOs and though he will not bluff for them most part OTR, he will do it likely > 0%.
But maybe my range is off...

Pretty acurate range imo (I dont expect 8x to bet, I doubt he fires every gutshot, may fire broadways, but w/e). I't just not a great spot to barrel imo, because you pbb fold a lot of your range otf...

.. except that you decided to float KJ OOP, so he may be inclined to fire a lot of barrels against you. With that dynamic I would c/r turn as played and expect to have him fold everything less than TP

.......................

c/r turn reps a tiny value range, but if he's really betting als his air with some equity, it wil be pretty hard for him to counter a c/r. My experience is that he just folds those hands without some crazy dynamic

seems like a really straightfoward c/r

No reads, call and bomb the river. Which one? It depends, like any strat post, with little reads.

this line could make sense, cause villain will often stop bluffing imo OTR given that your range is kinda tripsheavy, when you call the 2ndBar.
So you could take this line in a somewhat balanced manner...

And yeah, had no relevant reads, otherwise I would have obv. posted them.

He probably has his entire OTB opening range on this turn so I would just c/r.

don`t say that C/Ring OTT is not +ev, but it seems bad for villain to cbet this board w 100% of his buttonrange.
Not sure if you also should not cut some ppor-EQ-airhands OTT out of your range, from your cbet-range OTF, on this particular board.

Anyways,
any thoughts on the idea from txdome?
Seems like a line which you could somewhat reasonably use and developing around a gameplan.

Why? Hard to see you not folding way over the 40% or whatever is needed to make the cbet profitable.

when you cbet those boards 100%, then you do it also on ton of boards as well.
This should result over time in a pretty high cbet-stat - and from this point on ppl can pick up on you wide and weak cbet-ranges...

It`s still a common leak many players have - cbetting too much and with too weak of a range, imo.

I don't really like leading the river cause villain is going to call with Qx and by c/r the turn we could possibly get him off of it on the river.

This, turn seems like a clear check raise. If you get called I dunno whether we should bet river or not if it bricks off.

would not feel so comfortable tbh to follo though OTR cause he should also have a decent amount of Tx-hands in his 2ndbar/Callrange...

Also, where`s the problem (gameplan-wise) when he calls 100% our riverlead (should we C/C) w Qx, when we do it also with our Tx+_combos?

If you knew that I cbet this board 100% how would you exploit it?