UTG: $343.57 - VPIP: 57, PFR: 25, 3B: 4, AF: 1.5, Hands: 205
MP: $688.83 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 19, 3B: 6, AF: 3.1, Hands: 1762
CO: $406.00 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 17, 3B: 10, AF: 2.3, Hands: 706
Hero (BTN): $550.67 -
SB: $407.45 - VPIP: 38, PFR: 19, 3B: 9, AF: 1.6, Hands: 349
BB: $76.45 - VPIP: 56, PFR: 2, 3B: 2, AF: 3.0, Hands: 688

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 7 7
1 fold, MP raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30.00) 3 3 6 (2 players)
MP bets $18.00, Hero calls $18

Turn: ($66.00) K (2 players)
MP bets $45.00, Hero calls $45

River: ($156.00) J (2 players)
MP bets $122.00, Hero folds

there are 2 regs that play against me with this strategy.. they 3barrell me every time with 3/4 pot at river and i can't bluffcatch them. i raise always flop with fd and set. if i 3bet them they 4bet me 33% of time and when i
5b them light they're always toprange but theyr about 25/19/8 21/19/8, when they flat 3b they do the good fold... i dunno if this is only badrun and they're always toprange, the board hits always their range and never mine and i can't be believed but it's so sick.
if i raise river they sometimes bluffcatch me, but never when im nuts..

i thought to slowplay fd and set on drawy boards too and push the set and the flush if i close, and to raise bluff any turn and push any river, obv with "any" i mean only when i can rep a winning hand also on the river.
so here i would like to transform 77 in bluff raising and betting 3/4 on the river.
some other advice against this regs?

here is a fold on the turn? on the river? on the flop???

Why would you raise sets on the flop if they always tripple barrel?

Slowplay more often, tighten up pre, call them down lighter

haha such a good board to triple barrel for villain against your range. Only problem is his MP raise is tight and hits this range pretty hard whereas yours doesn't. Have to fold the river unless you think he does this with 80%+ of his range.

they often 3barrell on any k,a,q,j on dry board. the c/c hands with mid value and they fire with air/tpgk+ but here he have hit i think...
3 days ago against this two regs i didn't fold a bluffcatcher, and i was still lose money, now i started to fold, but it's like they have always a better hands than me.

Fold turn. After such turn you will face river bet close to 100% and playing a guessing game

If he's betting turn 100%, then it's not too tough of a guessing game most of the time, especially on this river. From what everyone so far is saying and OP describe sounds like Villain is barreling 100% of his preflop raising range on this flop, turn, and river. After making that assumption, people are saying fold the river, which is incorrect. You should be calling here against such an opponent.

You guys can adjust the range I chose if you like and maybe find a different, probably better number. I was pretty king and jack heavy on his opening range here. Maybe some of his slightly better hands like 88-TT don't find a value bet as well, which would help your call. Generally, I like to try to solve for about the worst case scenario and take on assumptions if we can't call with what we get from the worst case (he makes all the thin value bets).

Based on OP's recorded statistics of the player, we have him opening around 20%, possibly more, from this position. I chose a range heavier in Kx and Jx to make sure we could be comfortable about our decision. Some of you may want to add JTo or a few JTo combos to the range.




After choosing the range I ran the equity to show that we have just under 38% equity, making this an easy river call based on my assumptions about his range.



OP is facing a bet of $122 into a pot of already $156, which means we need to win the pot a good bit less than 33% of the time and the data shows that we win the pot almost 38% of the time. "Easy" call.

The turn bet isn't just about the turn.

It's about the implied River bet.

Fold the turn and make things easy.

it's ok fold every made hand on scary overcards that hit his range having a lower wwsf% but maybe an higher net won?
isn't this an unbalanced strategy?

hard to give a good answer without more reads on villain and your dynamic here...

but I think river is a fold in this spot, where he can be vbetting like 99+ for value on this runout, and I think this turn/river combo actually doesnt always get trippled as a bluff with all the bluffs in his percieved range, but thats a generalization of a group of regs avg, possible this guy always bluffs. Id rather call a river that polarizes his river betting range more, for instance if the river was the Jh. Dont really like jamming river here after flatting 18$ into 30$ on flop on a flop with a fd on it, as I think some hands will talk themselves into a bet call with whatever they are vbetting with putting you on turning ~77 into a bluff, as it looks on on the surface like a great spot to do so.

2 Shootaa: You assume that he opens 20% in this position? It's not really true for 23\19. I would say it's closer to 15-16%, also I doubt that he would cbet 100% on this board and 2 barell 100% too. so their range reduces on like 20-30% on flop and 30-40 on turn, after that their have around top 50-60% from originally 15-16%. let's go through this:

it's his pfr range: { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, ATo+, KJo+ }
I made it more polarized with connectors as I doubt that he will open K8s or so there and not open like 87s, you could make some changes there as well, it's 16,5% pre

let's say he cbet 80% of this on the flop, which is pretty much. we will have like 12-13%

{22+, AJs+, AhTh, AsTs, Ah9h, As9s, Ah8h, As8s, KJs+, KhTh, KsTs, QJs, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KQo}. I folded down worse hands from his range or make en assumption to follow with only flush draw or backdoor FD on hands like KTs A9s etc.

Then we cut another 30% on turn(having cbets like 80-70 is a very reckless, but we think that the turn K is very good for continue, we will have like 9%+. I assume he wouldn't barrel combs like 22,44,55, 76, 65 and probably some % of broadway.

{66+, 33, AJs+, AhTh, AsTs, KJs+, KhTh, KsTs, AJo+, KQo }. It's 10% against them we have like 30% with 77 on this runout.

If we are sure that he will bet 100% river no matter what card comes(it's a bit rough to be honest) than we call 45 on turn +122 on river and pot will be ~400 on river so we will should have like 40%+ which isn't true. If we will call turn and call brick rivers we will have 32% if river is 2(brick) and 18% on this particular river(J), so it's a clear fold too

2 N0fknway: it's not about folding every made hand it's about folding bottom of your range, if you had 99-JJ there than your equity on turn is 40% vs his range and river equity is better too, so you fold worse and call better and it's a balanced strategy

@zanetti: his rangee might be tighter if he's positional aware, so oke his opening range might be tighter. But the description of villain states that he fires away on a lot of board, so we can assume that 633-K will be barreled (close to) 100%

for example on ktx and he oop, he c/c flop, c/c turn, and check river while i check myself too..

from mp he open 21/19
cb flop 68, cb turn 48 (but against me i think the value are more higher and i would like to see where this stats can be seen..


ok, maybe this is a problem, i float or semifloat too much against him and they get too much value on turn cause after that they are ready to bluff or vbet on a lot of cards on river...

http://i40.tinypic.com/2r2lnhg.png
he is positional aware...
i keep the ep opening too for have more hands but 32 are still low...

definitely slowplay AA/KK and set super often vs this guy. I don't know what u think of his barrel frequencies but if u think it's like 80% then it might be a call. But I doubt it is that high and I fold on this particular River while calling a blank river T and below.

If the flop was 3 low cards maybe I would bluff ship but it's a paired board so we can't rep so many sets

pf too?

If you're folding this turn as often as most of you guys are suggesting, you'll be run over quite easily against anyone who is reasonably aggressive, not to mention the Villain OP describes. That means you're folding 80%+ of your range on the turn to a bet on about 50% of the cards that could come out when your range is somewhat face up... usually not a good game plan. I can see an argument for folding at some point without enough information, but OP has given us enough information to make folding the turn too snug against the range we're facing.



To Zanetti4:

I did see that OP listed Villain as having an average PFR of 19% over a decent sample size. Keep in mind that 19% is his average preflop raising percentage. In this hand, Villain is in an above average spot to take down the blinds (middle-to-late position with at least one historically docile opponent (OP) yet to act).

The upshot of this is that he'll be raising with more than 19% of hands, more than his average. If he knows he'll be able to win a lot of pots uncontested by people who fold far too often post flop, he should be opening even wider than simply the positions indicate. I'd say a 20% PFR is conservative here, but if you want to make it exactly 19% and run the numbers, go for it. I just don't get the argument behind choosing a 19% PFR other than that's what the stats read. The data still won't change the math enough to make the turn or the river a fold given OP's description of Villain.

15% is closer to most 19% PFR's UTG opening range. I think for both the ranges you gave, which aren't indicative of OP's reads on this player at all, still are both calls according to you. You said you have 40% and 32% equity for your respective examples if I understood your post. You tightened the ranges of Villain in three different spots where it's unwarranted given the description of Villain.

You actually think this Villain type is checking this flop 20% of the time versus OP's description of himself and the dynamic the two have? Highly doubtful. I'm betting if you rounded up everyone who plays 400nl and averaged their continuation bet percentage here, it would be 95%+. If that's the case, Villain is almost certainly 100%

He's barreling this turn with this dynamic 100% of the time and certainly NOT checking this turn a third of the time. That just doesn't make sense for his bluff or value range given the dynamic and opponent.

On this river and against such a face up range, I would assume an extremely high barreling percentage from this Villain. Maybe something like 80% sounds more reasonable to you? But for him to fold out 77-TT every single time, a third barrel is a fantastic investment for Villain on the river... so he should be betting 100% of his range again.