9-handed live 5/5 NL. Both villains and hero are pretty deep (300bb+).

UTG+1 (seems like fishy rec player) raises to $20, folds around to button who calls, hero picks up AA in SB.

I've been playing for a while with the button villain, and don't recall yet seeing a showdown. Young asian, seems to be playing standard TAG. I definitely haven't seen him get out of line, and have no reason to believe he's capable of anything super crazy or creative.

Hero raises to $65 from SB (in hindsight, I think this should be bigger, but would love to hear thoughts), both players call.

$200 in pot

Flop: Q 9 4

Hero bets $115, UTG+1 calls, button raises to $415 and still has ~$1200 behind

What's our plan for the rest of the hand? Open to thoughts on PF/flop as well.

I 3-bet to bigger sizes in live games because they never fold. I'd make it at least $100 here.

I'd c-bet bigger on the flop as well.

As played, I'd bet/fold the flop. Standard TAG isn't raising light there once the fish calls. He's got QQ (discounted), 99, 44, and strong draws.

I agree the 3bet sizing needs to be bigger. I'd discount 44 before QQ. Also what strong draws does villain have? It's like 1 combo that actually has us at an equity disadvantage. Having the toppest pair goes a long way. Not saying it skews this to a call just saying there aren't a lot of draws that have us at a disadvantage here.

The slight equity edge we have against his big draws doesn't really matter when we're OOP, deep, and have few reads. He's going to own us if we call.

FWIW, the hand is much different with 100 BB stacks or at a SH game.

yah I agree with this; but its too exploitable to fold here since were still ahead of his range





if the button had QQ he (probably) wouldve 3 bet the original open.

There are alot more combos of drawing hands here than made hands that beat us (44, 99, Q9s(?))

but I believe that needs to be weighed against the fact that hes more likely to just call in position here with most of his drawing hands (except J10cc), especially getting good odds on the overcall

So its more likely from a playing(action) perspective you might behind than just counting combos

Having said that I would call here, reeval turn (check shove blank, check soul-read other)

OP do you think villain could do this with AQ?

Thanks for all the thoughts.

If we have 100bb, we're just shipping the flop, right?

I leveled myself into thinking that the caller in between us makes it a perfect spot from button villain's perspective to raise us off AA/KK/AQ (huge part our range from his perspective) w/ a flush draw, which led me to think that it would be too exploitative to fold.

I assume we have to include AQ as some small part of his range, but I don't think it's esp. likely that this particular villain would put that many BB's in the pot w/ TPTK here.

I agree that I think he would have 3bet QQ pre. I think he probably plays 99 and 44 exactly like this, but there are just more combos of flush draws.

How is he going to own us? It's not like he can just bet/bet jam with an lol frequency here on any runout or that his draws are super abundant.

Is it going to be difficult to play? Maybe. Is it going to be unprofitable to play? I'm not so sure.

Flop is just a fold being this deep, oop, and vs his sizing, PF has to be bigger I would just make it 5x PF being this deep and expect to get a caller.

Agree on PF sizing, and I think I'm mostly willing to concede that flop should be a fold this deep OOP.

A couple questions, though:

What # of BB's would make this a flop or non- turn jam?

If we're folding here, shouldn't button villain be raising essentially all C-bets on any board after we raise the blinds? I don't really expect this particular villain to do that, but that seems really exploitable.

PF sizing has to be bigger with entire 3-bet range at this depth.

With info about villain, flop is just a fold. Most TAG villains don't go out of their way to try to bluff you off the top of your range playing mega deep. Some do but you should generally know who they are when you're playing against them.

Aside from making your sizing larger pre, I like bigger sizing on the flop as well. this board texture isn't getting many folds.

i think Villian can has all sets in his range. but QQ just at a lower frequency. So since he isn't getting according to your reads. the worst hands he can have are combo draws j10s, 108s, kjs, k10s, j8s.

you are about 25% equity vs that range if you get it in. doesn't seem too +ev. i think if you call flop. a good villain will play his hand perfectly against you by taking free rivers when he doesn't improve.

you can fold flop if you want.

Thanks for all the thoughts.

Definitely agree on PF and flop bet sizing.

Results:

I haven't seen the spoiler but this seems like some sort of combo draw to me, maybe j10cc A9cc maybe q9suited or 44 99, yes I agree take qq out of the equation, he would have 3bet pre or 4 bet you. I mean I honestly would have made it 85-100 pre depending how calling stations they were, and on the turn I make it a bit more like 140-160 just for pure value. once we get raised like this I mean they are so many draws where I can call see if he slows down or pray and click it back ( not my favorite option) you have to have a read for that... but it seems like a combo draw to me..

also if you are out of position I would always make my 3 bets bigger just because it is more difficult to play that way.
time to see the spoiler now lol

Grunch:

Is UTG the kind of fish who folds too much, or calls too much? I'll answer under the assumption that he CALLS too frequently.

I think this is a good spot to make a tight-ish fold. My guess is that BTN expects your cbets to be stronger in a 3way 3b pot, so him raising here is less likely to be a draw (wouldn't make sense to iso the fish with JTcc or something). I would even say it's too thin for him to be raising this flop with KK bc you just fold all worse hands correctly and he may get stacked by your QQ combos and sometimes AA. This looks like he's trying to get paid off by UTG V who prob calls too much and UTG's flat can be a lot of draws on this relatively wet flop, so I'd spot BTN a strong value range only and hit the muck. It's just optimistic to think he's light here.

Obv size your 3b larger pre, but you already know that. Live players will make horrendously bad calls pre so go ahead and blast them pre.

Ps: I like the idea of continuing with our hand on this flop if Vs positions were switched.

I like the call. Good analysis on the turn. Opponent luck box river.


Run it once

I agreed, bet pot size on the flop has upside and downside, upside he unlikely raise with K9ss, downside you pot flop he calls, turn you bet big, he c/r or raises your bet, you fold the best hand.

It feels really uncomfortable but if one doesn't continue with AA here what exactly are we continuing with? Monster draws and sets only? Feels really exploitable to be folding aces here. Villains combos are way weighed towards draws no way it can make sense to fold here, QQ can be discounted too imo. Flat and eval turn.

Love that this is still going. A lot of those thoughts were what I had thought at the time.

My main takeaway from this thread is that with better (much bigger) pre-flop and flop bet sizing, I think I could have avoided getting into such a gross spot in the first place.

If your read on villain is correct, fold. Villain's bet size on the flop is not screaming that he wants you to fold, it's a standard raise. Also it's a 3 way pot and you didn't show weakness yet.

Am I right in seeing you raised to 65 pre after button called UTG+1? Then yes, that's incredibly small. 100 is probably minimum actually here. Then pot would be $300. Bet flop for 'bout $240 cause Qx, fishy UTG+1 could have some 10Js I suppose.

But then again if button villain has a set, he's probably gonna do the same and jack up the flop...in which case you're probably already priced in. I mean pot would already be like $800 and button would have to pretty much shove.

Then again, button villain isn't gonna have many draws here...

Anyway pre flop and flop bet sizing were off pretty big.

***edited to add after I read spoiler K9s makes sense with pre flop play, he came along for the ride cause it was cheap and you were deep, but his flop raise seems pretty weird when he could have just called and seen a turn for a helluva good price. I think button villain played this poorly imo, as I would have just taken a card with the low cost***

Am I the only one making it even bigger PF? Something like 120-130, if we put OR in the fishier side. As played, I think bet/folding is correct: that TAG move is too strong; moreover, apart from monsters, every kind of draw he will raise in that 3way spot, after UTG+1 call, will surely be ATOMIC! Well, after spoiler, Kc9c is really on the weaker side of his range, but his a combo draw anyway with very nice equity.

yea i agree. If were folding here, what arent we folding? I dont like calling though, just ship it

shove it in his face, or fold. go with your read. calling is the worst of the three options. we are OOP, what turn cards are good for us? you also have reverse blockers, if you had the Ac, it would be closer to a fold (even though its less likely he would raise the nut draw given the amazing pot odds this competent villain is given). preflop i would make it 4x + 1x for every caller, so $100. flop sizing is terrible on a wet board.