RESULTS:
I ended up calling
Villain had 10
9
for turned boat, Hero loses
I appreciate all of the thoughts on the line and ranges.
In the end I had a couple of main thoughts which obviously were wrong in this spot.
On the Turn
I felt a turn lead accomplished 2 things. First, it gave me a chance to take down the pot vs a weak flop float since my Q high had no showdown value. Second it set me up better to get stacks in if I hit my massive draw OR bluff shove a total miss. I did not properly think through the specific scenario which happened when I hit top pair on river.
I honestly didn't think check at all on turn so since several people advocated that line I am going to explore that more in future spots, thanks!
On the River
I felt very strong that his value shove range was limited almost exclusively to full houses in this spot. My river check I knew would open up his bluff range.
For his value range, my general thought was...
---I block a lot of QQ and Q10 combos that boated river
---33, 99, 10/9 often would have 3 bet my flop raise on such a wet board (obv wrong in this spot)
For his bluff range I had
---A
K
---A
Wheel
---78 (mostly
) rarely other
---Rarely A9 or JJ turned into bluff or something else random
In the end it was truly about 50/50 in my head so getting almost 3/1 I decided to call.
I think biggest mistakes in my river thinking was A) was underestimating Villain's willingness to peel a card on the flop against my raise with top 2 pair and B) Not putting enough stock in how small his bluff range was.
Thanks for all the helpful commentary, turn and river were interesting to me and I find it valuable to hear different PoVs on lines and ranges.