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Line Check KQss Line Check KQss

04-17-2017 , 09:24 AM
2/5 full ring @ my local brick and mortar. V is early 30's, thinking player that I only know to be a successful 1/2 reg. I have never seen in my 2/5 games. One of the very first hands I see him play he limp/3b OOP with KK and x/c the V's jam on Axx ddd. He's right as V angrily spins up the QQ. Neither had a diamond. V snap jammed after his check, so I can tell he's not just clicking buttons.

We're $650 effective after about an hour or so and he's lost a few pots. He's very talkative about hands he plays. Analyzing the action, etc. Borderline, annoying. But, whatever...

I open the CO with KQ to $20

He puts out a very deliberate, calculated 3b to $85. In position, I choose to call and see a flop.

Flop is 1094 ($175)

He leads for $140. I choose to just call.

Turn is 9 ($455). He jams/I fold. He shows QQ.

In retrospect, calling the turn feels really, really bad. I feel like he's jamming nearly all turns and we are leaving ourselves with less than a pot sized bet on the turn. Should this simply be a fold and move on vs. his flop bet? The sizing just seems a little big to flat and eval. the turn. Thanks in advance for responses.
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04-17-2017 , 11:45 AM
I think you are right in saying that he will jam Turn almost always. So it becomes a rather simple math problem. I guess you will call on all J,Q,K. A spade will not give you enough outs to call a turn shove (which is a minus). Also a Q or a K are not that great, as he will show up with better quite frequently. I'll assume a simplified range of TT+,AKs,AQs,AJs (representing some bluff shoves but also some bluffs that will dominate you if you hit) that he will shove on any Turn. As I said not 100% accurate but simplified:

Your stack if you fold Flop is $565.
If you hit a J, you have around 91% to win a $1300 pot (EV-stack=$1183).
If you hit a Q, you have around 45% to win a $1300 pot ($585).
On a K, you have around 57% to win a $1300 pot ($741).
If you do not hit and fold, you will have a $425 stack.

So (4/47)*1183+(3/47)*585+(3/47)*741+(37/47)*425 = ~$520.

As you would have $565 after a fold, you should fold and calling is around a $45-mistake.

As I said, it is a very simplified calc and it becomes a larger mistake if he e.g. never bluffed or played better than always shoving on your outs. On the other hand it becomes better, if he bluffs more often or gives up on some turns, allowing you profitable bluffs etc. Imo it will not become profitable tho with realistic assumptions.

So, fold flop.
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04-17-2017 , 03:04 PM
I think folding the flop is certainly the right move. You can beat the bottom of his range with a K or Q on the turn and of course a J helps. More times than not, if you hit a K or Q in that scenario you are still way behind. Even without him jamming the turn but instead being able to make a standard bet, I think the proper call is fold the flop.
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