i think all streets here are up for debate. The villian in the hand is playing 25/20. 67% open on the button. high agression factor on the river.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $10/$20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12853242

UTG: $3,947.52 (197.4 bb)
MP: $1,420 (71 bb)
CO: $5,973.40 (298.7 bb)
BTN: $2,624 (131.2 bb)
SB: $2,548 (127.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $2,269.98 (113.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 J
3 folds, BTN raises to $40, SB folds, Hero calls $20

Flop: ($90) Q T 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $60, Hero calls $60

Turn: ($210) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $160, Hero raises to $490, BTN calls $330

River: ($1,190) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $783.42, BTN raises to $2,034 and is all-in

What are your stats?

Gonna assume you're probably on the looser side since you defend J8. Prob folding river, if we're loose, we can have lots of value-hands that we play like this on the flop (87, J8, KJ, T9, Q9, 66 is concievable as well), and we shouldn't have a ton of bluffs (guess random Jx and FDs from our side, but only Jx we can have left is like AJ, maaaybe J7s, and we're probably not floating a ton of hands that make FDs on this turn, unless OP c/cs every Axcc which would be weird, also leaving out hands like Txcc and Qxcc as these prob won't raise turn). He can't expect us to fold out any part of our value range, so it doesn't make much sense for him to ship anything with SD value. Only bluffs he could play like this is random Jxs or FDs that he plays like this on the turn, but I don't think there are enough of those to warrant a call on the river.

Guess it can swing to a call if you guys have some really agggro dynamic going on, but think that would have been worth mentioning in the OP

I'm folding and... ehhh I prob don't defend this pre. It's one of the best hands I won't defend I guess, but if I don't think btn is bad I am just folding.

Also I think I like a check/call on turn and check/jam most rivers.

You have to at least call pre against a guy opening 67%. This hand might fall into that fringe category against 67% where you don't really want to call and play your top pairs super aggressively because of how marginal your holding is, so it might be a bit better to just 3bet and take it down pre super often. I don't mind calling though, obviously.

From his perspective, every hand in your range is actually a bluff catcher on this river. Even 66, which is actually the only boat you can have.

At the same time, he is repping a pretty narrow range for value. 66, TT, QQ, T9 and KJ. There's no way 78 ever jams the river since you have bigger straights and occasionally the boat with 66.

I'd just toss it here and take a quick note that he jammed over your river bet in a spot where he represented a very narrow range for value. If in the future I encountered a similar spot, I'd take the info I learned from this hand, also take a look at his W$WSF, and his general river aggression, and give myself the opportunity to make a more informed decision.

Also, if we are going to c/c the flop (which I don't mind since the board is rainbow, although I think we are getting barreled incredibly frequently on almost every turn), I much prefer to go c/c again on the turn since I think whenever this turn gets barreled that villain will bet the river >80% of the time. After c/c turn, I like making a decision on the river based on his sizing and the card that falls regarding whether to just c/c again or c/jam.

Just admit it, you don't wanna fold. =p

v good posts. thx

May i ask a noob question? If we flat J8o, won't our range contain so many missed overcards on flop, that a cbet will be very +EV for villain?

if u fold every time u dont hit a pair, then yes.

I dunno the answer. Maybe it's a bad call. We have 44% equity w/ J8o vs a 67% opening range. I'm not the right guy to ask that question.

Np, thnx anyway. I wasn't trying to say it's wrong, it seems like a decent hand vs a min-raise, was just thinking, we have so many missed overs on low flops.
Oh, so you check pre-flop equity vs opening range, i didn't think that would be relevant.

Well, on this flop then for instance(this seems like a decent flop for us, to me..)
If our defending range is something like this: 88-22,A9o-A2o,KTo-K7o,QJo-Q8o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o,87o,ATs-A2s,KJs-K7s,QJs-Q7s,JTs-J7s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s

QsTd6c flop combos: 406c
406 * .6 = 244c
Im trying to construct a range that can handle a cbet:

Value check-raise: 66 QT QJ Q9=36c
Bluff raise: 36c random bdfd hands

Check/call: Q8 Q7s ATs KT JT T9 T8 T7s 88 77 A6=93c
OOP floats: KJ K9 J9 J8 98=80c
=245c total

Are we still be able to c/c down enough though when we check-raise a lot of toppairs? Am i right in thinking we flat any Axo, or is that too loose?
Appreciate any advice, and sry for posting in higher forums.

we are value betting a few worse hands so I dont think you can fold this. A case can be made that it's a spot where people are not bluffing enough, but we are playing 10/20 in 2012 so I wouldnt make hero decisions without a lot of info.

this is more so a case for folding than one for calling. I'm glad to see people say that this a defend pre since I thought I may have been defending too wide to min steals w like JTo. I'd fold pre vs anyone good.

Defending this wide by flatting against anyone decent seems like burning money. Folding river, this flop+river actually smacks our range so I don't expect too many bluffs here. It's exploitable for sure, but I think that I'm the one doing exploiting, not him.

Calling pre only gets you to flop, having 44 % equity is actually a reason to fold here. Granted, this hand flops decent pairs, but it's still too loose.

fold pre

you're going to be uncomfortable putting much money vs an aggressive opponent with position when you hit TP with J8 as he won't allow you to SD cheaply.

and when you don't hit TP but instead turned a monster you still end up feeling uncomfortable stacking off against this opponent which just means defending pre here OOP against this guy is not going to be profitable in the long run. if you're not comfortable with him stealing your BB everytime there are ways to adjust other than defending very loosely when he has position....

fold pre, a lil too loose to defend against a better opponent, as played river is a fold.

why did u multiply the flop combos by .6?

% time villain's bet needs to work=40%(we need to defend 60% of our range to be unexploitable on that street)

What if villain barrels 100% of the time after he bets... Too many other factors to figure out than just the up front math.

not quite.

Even if it were true that 60% defend is locally ok, it doesn't really mean much because villain's bluffs have equity, so he is still better off betting than folding behind when we defend a full 60%.


this simple type of analysis "bet x = defend 1/(1+x)" only holds in simple toy games. it surely never holds on a flop in holdem. It can give a guideline, sure, but saying it like this is the math you need to know to win is nonsense.

I'm pretty sure it's a stylistic preference as to whether you play each street independently of the others or if you form a plan beforehand as to how to play and stick with it almost no matter what.

Most MSNL players likely fall into the category of "form your entire plan beforehand so as not to avoid tough decisions", and I feel like HSNL players say "play each street independently and just make the most +ev decision at each point in the hand."

Probably the average MSNL players' advice is better for SSNL players. Not so sure that's the case for MSNL players trying to reach HSNL though.

All that said, yeah after spending more time thinking about it, I do think that the defend is a little too loose given my average ability and being just a MSNL player.

I would love to see a db of hands from a strong midstakes player where they choose to take the c/c flop c/r turn line in these spots just to see if you guys are even close to being balanced.

Is anyone trying to bluff or value jam worse on river after you make such a ridiculously strong line?

@Dave: Hmm, i think you missed my point. I was just using the GTO math to see how difficult it was to defend enough vs a cbet on this flop(which seemed good for our range, to me), and have a decent call down range aswell, when we have a range as wide as that pre-flop. It turned out that i had to put so much value hands in a c-r range, that c/c range become too weak i think.
Im not as good as MSNLers at this though, i only play SSNL, which was why it was posed as more of a question(or i hope it came across that way anyway).

@Internet, I agree, if we account for the equity of villain's bluffs, we would need to attach a call multiplier to the c/call range, making it even harder to defend optimally.

Ah, i should have worded it differently.
Perhaps: 'We could defend 60% of our range to be unexploitable on that street, but need to think about how strong our range will be for the next streets'.
I will take more care next time when posting, thnx for the warning.

I should prob not have posted in first place, my bad.

your posts were perfectly fine, so yes, better not post here

What about T9, Q9 in hero's range?

def fold pre