folding a set of Jacks when villain takes a fishy line? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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folding a set of Jacks when villain takes a fishy line?

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06-15-2017 , 12:04 AM

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

2/5 @ the Venetian
Effective stack = 500.
Hero opens UTG with J

to 20. UTG+1 (villain) min raises to 40. Folds around, Hero calls. Pot=87.
Flop K

check check.
Turn J

Hero checks, Villain bets 125, Hero calls.
River A

check check.
Villain shows KK.

is there merit to folding the turn? I dont think villain would check the flop with AA or AK, so it seems likely that villain has KK (or maybe QQ) when he takes this line. The overbet on the turn further confirms the suspicion that villain has KK.
Thoughts?

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06-15-2017 , 12:24 AM

lil feller

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 1,428

Quote:

Originally Posted by hyperknit

2/5 @ the Venetian
Effective stack = 500.
Hero opens UTG with J

folding a set of Jacks when villain takes a fishy line?

: to 20. UTG+1 (villain) min raises to 40. Folds around, Hero calls. Pot=87.
Flop K

: check check.
Turn J

Hero checks, Villain bets 125, Hero calls.
River A

: check check.
Villain shows KK.

is there merit to folding the turn? I dont think villain would check the flop with AA or AK, so it seems likely that villain has KK (or maybe QQ) when he takes this line. The overbet on the turn further confirms the suspicion that villain has KK.
Thoughts?

Well it certainly suspicious anytime somebody willfully surrenders initiative, you can't pinpoint his range on exactly KK or QQ. He could have nines, Eights, AJ, AQ, maybe even AT. I think Bluff catching is a reasonable line to take here. I say thank the poker gods for a run out that didn't cost you your stack, and move on.

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06-15-2017 , 04:50 PM

horse84

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 2,574

if this is not a troll-post:

it is not part of a good gameplan, to fold a set vs one bet! But i do think there might be circumstances in a live game, where you could have a really good read on someone allowing to get away from this hand on a blank river. But 2/5 in the Venetian during wsop time is not the kind of game to have that read.
no, we are not folding sets.

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06-16-2017 , 11:19 AM

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

Quote:

Originally Posted by horse84

well no, of course this isnt part of a gto game plan. Im more wondering if we can make an exploitable fold here because of villain's bet sizing. The bet sizing screams KK. Sure it possible that a player could run a sick bluff by sizing like this without KK, but villain is clearly repping KK with this line...

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06-17-2017 , 01:24 AM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,904

I would have led the turn.

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06-22-2017 , 04:32 PM

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,048

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

I would have led the turn.

lead turn $60

can maybe fold if he raises as you are only beating KQ but still a tough fold.

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06-28-2017 , 03:31 PM

JasonP530

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 2,323

Don't fold the turn. You should bet the turn and check this particular river. He has a lot of AA/AK that might check this flop that you can get value with. Be sure not to bet too big on turn/brick rivers

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