lol go back to your hole

well i thought you were being sarcastic.. my bad

I cant believe I have a boat/quads ~25% of the time. Feels like a lot less :P

I thought this response was overly harsh no?

Renton - I think your estimates on how many boats ppl show up with here is VERY player dependent.

Some players will raise most of their sets / two pairs on a flop like this, leaving them with VERY few boats on the river, and mostly just 68s and A9 as their primary hands stronger than trips on the river.

It's a sick river spot though, as I think this is a perfect c/r spot for all of villain's value hands, and consequently bluffs as well. I'd imagine most villains would assume hero is capped to trip aces here.

@Griffey I strongly agree with your post. I agree that as a default line many people raise this flop with most sets and balance this with draws and that their calling range is actually significantly weaker than your estimates. I could see AQ being very close to the top of your range with this line, and I think for many people it probably would only be behind combos of A9 and AK. My original thinking was that this should be a fold, but it's concerning if you are only calling with your A9 combos and folding everything else. What do you think your range is on the river, and how would you play your flopped sets and draws?

Are there really so many players raising their sets on this board in 2014?

The river is an easy bet fold. If your the type of player that calls it off then you need to check behind. Anybody justifying a call is just leveling them self.

When you have a monster and you think that A made your opponent a strong hand, you go for the check raise for value. You don't go for the check raise to try and get your opponent off a strong hand.

uh, anything that beats a draw?

I'd say yes give him credit until you see him do something that gives you a reason to not give him credit. This really isn't that big of a fold. Great players make these folds all day long and that's why their win rate is what it is.

bet/fold large.

I'd agree about bet/folding, don't level yourself

If I'm 12 tabling a stake I know I can crush, then it's less likely that I'll know that the big blind is a weaker player to the extent that I'll drastically change my opening range in a given spot. So depending on how many tables your opponent is playing, he may or may not have adjusted.

You have a few conflicting ideas here. It's weak not to value bet AQ here, but it's a bad river to bluff. Villain can play well versus our bet, but it's a bad river to bluff.

So I think when you're saying that it's a bad river to bluff, then you meant that we do not credibly represent a bluff all that often, and you'd be correct. So just because we have trips with a good kicker does not mean that it's a value bet, and I think the absolute strength of the hand can be deceptively value in some instances. Almost no matter how you slice it, we have at least a pair by the river (or one of a very few missed flush draws). Why would we bluff with a pair when it's incredibly unlikely that our opponent is check-folding a better hand. I mean, he probably doesn't even play KK this way.

So the point about AQ being high up in your range should probably be ignored. It's probably at the bottom of what should be a value betting range on the river, with boats making up the majority of what you can balance with credible air. And because we kind of ruled out the profitability of turning a hand into a bluff, it makes sense to value bet rarely and balance it with the rare instances that we have a bluff.

check back river you fish. what the f do you think he bets AT on the turn? Its not SB vs BB ffs.

And what the f do you think you bluff with ( the 3 combos of flushdraws you have) ?? You prob too weak tight anyway to bluff.

Good to see people are still clueless.

Good posts renton & shoota.

What is villain's range of hands that he bets twice and check/calls the river with that we beat? I'm surprised so many regs ITT seem to be focusing at absolute hand strength and saying things like checking back "feels weak"

are you never raising your sets?

Probably. It's hard to imagine a hand other than 77 in my range that I'd want to raise MP vs CO on A75 board.

Villian maybe balancing his river check raise range that include unimproved value hands with the lead when hero calls flop/turn.This texture is perfect for that so villians river checks are not transparent in overall strat.

Hero has options.

If you cant spot the sucker...

lol

Seriously tho, the guy wasn't mass tabling mostly bc this site doesn't have the traffic. Even in the case villain is 20 tabling, I cant imagine ever coming to the conclusion that villain was on too many tables to spot a 60 vpip whale (given they were at the table a few orbits). Of course he could have lost focus for a bit, but that's certainly not the norm for anyone winning at mid/high stakes.

Fold. It'd be nice for you to at least raise some turns on boards like these to clearly define his range on the river

I feel as though ppl think checking back AQ is 'weak' here because of what it means for the rest of their range (ie: they are checking back every Ax).

By contrast I think most ppl auto bet all Ax here (which probably isn't good). But this explains why ppl find it difficult to b/f AQ here, cause again of what it means to the rest of their range. (ie: folding their entire betting range).

I agree with Shoota that we should just have a narrow value betting range here with boats, maybe some strong Ax like AQ and some bluffs, and only b/c with boats.

Sure. I'm not trying to get into a subjective argument about whether or not some guy I don't know at all is paying attention, just that making assumptions about his river check-raising range based on the big blind being a weaker player is a pretty weak extrapolation.

Some percentage of the time, the UTG player will have an overly wide opening range. Some percentage of the time his range is the same as it always is. On average, the difference is not a large one, especially factoring in that he's bet the flop, bet the turn, and check-raised the river. So the fact that the BB is weak isn't necessarily a large factor in this hand as far as this river decision.

As a default I bet,

This river line by villian is one few players utilise often,
and most should deploy a lot more to exploite the nits infesting lower mid games or thinking player who can fold with our weak showdowns and nut.


I do lean towards B/F even if MSNL has turned into night of the TAG fish.

comes from the clown who base his vb/calling range on which limits villians can afford to play.

results?