I considered this. But 3 things stopped me from doing it.

1) I think my line looks strong enough that all non KX hands are folding the majority of time on turn.

2) My stack size made my river shove only just over half pot, so FE wouldnt be high

3) BB donk shoved, def not the right line with his entire range imo.

Still not sure if I'm a fan of the bu overcall on the flop, but I think Irishman is 100% right that the flop bet sizing makes his range significantly wider than normal. I was sorta with Jude (assuming std sizing) that my range for overcalling in btns spot is almost exclusively 33, 77...maybe with Kx some of the time. Because of the sizing though, I think it is possible for button to peel flop w/ a much wider range. If I'm in Hustler's spot, if I decide to fire turn, I fire river too, though I think in particular the K turn might be the worse turn card to bluff based on the action.

Also, the more I look @ it, I think BB might have Axcc and possibly full houses in his range depending on how fpsy he is.

I think if you are not intending to shove river, the turn bet is pretty useless. Kx is a very large portion of their ranges here, especially Oldjude's. Also, a king is like the worse card to barrel, because other than the fact that few people are bluffing in that spot, you should expect to get looked up a lot (i.e. people like to hero). Especially w/ your exact hand, I think you have to fire river if it checks to you

the btns range just isnt 77/33 but when the hand is played like this ill tell u he has exactly that a large percentage of the time..


STOP BEING SO WORRIED ABOUT A PLAYER'S ENTIRE RANGE WHEN ITS SO OBVIOUS WHAT HE HAS SOMETIMES.

still this
I mean the ranges i posted earlier were like worst case scenario and it pretty much had to be a perfect storm for us to fold

also... your op is a bit misleading saying that the BB is a "very" good reg. And I'm not sure who HustlerLA is (is he outed?) but I would not be folding this ever.

Well I think what you are saying is correct if I intend to fold out KX hands but that was not my intention. I do agree and did realize at the time that there are KX hands def in thier range but I also felt that all non KX hands were def folding and I could bluff at a fairly good price.

I need them to fold >37% of the time to make the bluff profitable. Given that the cbet was small and thus it gives them wide ranges, I felt like they had KX less then 37% of the time, so I went for it.

As an aside if I wanted to bluff out KX hands I prefer a turn bet of 255, and a river shove.

yeah let's not worry about ranges at all, let's try to put him on an exact hand! what do you think here, 7 diamonds and 7 hearts? no, he'd probably timebank with that, so he's definitely got the 7 of spades for sure.

he has exactly that a "large percentage of the time"... and that's why we do ranges, to figure out that "small percentage of the time"

best post so far

c'mon man

I am not sure if thats the case or not. I assume you would agree that a 5s turn would be a 8s turn would be a better card to bluff? But that is because I have more equity when called. But when I bet the turn K I am now credibly repping a wider range, than if i bluff raised, or bet an 8s turn, where i would only be repping 33, and 77. My FE vs JJ-QQ, AA would be lower on that 8s turn but my equity would be way higher, so its a tradeoff.

fwiw, an offsuit T or something similar would be the worst type of turns to bluff imo.

havent read the entire thread but i think calling would be pretty optimistic

I think you are correct that you rep a wider range on K turns, but people just don't fold (or usually at least). I also think betting turn just to fold non K and not follow up on river isn't too good. Since you are to act behind jude, I think I'd heavily weigh his range towards Kx (KQ, KJ, KTs primarily) once he calls the flop since the action shown by bb was fairly strong and he'd have to worry about you if he has QQ or somehting. Because you have blockers to 7s full, if I fire turn I am trying to rep almost exactly 7s full and intending to fold Kx a bunch.

This does work the opposite way though. I mean most people in this thread have either said fold/call and if called then folding river UI because with what's in the pot it would seem pretty crazy for you to be bluffing here. And you prob already know that oldjude likes to think on these levels and is always folding the river

So like I said in other thread you only have to worry about getting BB to fold. Which with BTN behind him, he should really be folding everything but 33 and 77, and maybe calling with AK half the time. Considering how he played it aswell, it's hard to see him having these hands too often.

good point BD. Although i suspected BU had a boat on turn, i was not going to fold to a turn or river bet if BB had to have folded. BTW results i timed right down to 0 and folded(because i was just so torn i could not make a decision, rarely ever happens to me) but it was the combo of BB leading flop and BU overcalling along w the BB making an incredibly strong call on turn(KJ at the very least imo)that prompted me to fold. and then the BB made a very strange lead jam on the river(???). great hand, and i am now very confident i made the right laydown. man my threads rule

I agree that the BB lead jam is strange and bad no matter what he had, and I think you were beat a ton there by BB even though you had me beat.

As an aside, just wanted to say from your threads and from your play, that u seem to be both good at poker and a cool person.

Did you see the J9s hand that i accidently folded ( i posted it in FTP reg thread)? If you dont care I would be curious to know what you had, just by some outside chance you had the nut flush, I could make myself feel better for not misclick timing out!

i didnt have a higher flush than you.

and thnx btw.

I would definitely not fold turn. I'm curious what happened on the river.

see post no. 65

I think you need to bet the turn yourself for 300. As played, I think I call and maybe fold to a river shove on button's part.

Did btn call?

No, the BTN folded 67s. What an idiot.

I would say its very likely after that river action that BB villain had AK.

There were a lot of good FTP MSNL guys posting in this thread. I really respected a lot of players games in here, any of them still play?

Dude you must have been drinking like a lord and reminisce to bump 2009,
I also wonder myself what happened to some who used to post here like silent assassin were is this dude! A lot of the Americans dropped out years ago!