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Old 01-22-2017, 08:46 PM   #1
justluck22
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Can i fold river?

villain is reg i haven't played much with.

Game theory is very likely a call vs balanced player surely?

However after the hand I started to feel like I could have made an exploitable fold to his river raise. I just don't think player pool is making enough bluffs here to justify calling. Thoughts?



    Poker Stars, $2.50/$5 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $615.74 (123.1 bb)
    SB: $730.19 (146 bb)
    BB: $749.28 (149.9 bb)
    UTG: $500 (100 bb)
    Hero (MP): $500 (100 bb)
    CO: $730.17 (146 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with 8 7
    UTG folds, Hero raises to $11, 3 folds, BB calls $6

    Flop: ($24.50) J T 4 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $18.39, BB calls $18.39

    Turn: ($61.28) 6 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $46.04, BB calls $46.04

    River: ($153.36) K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $118.78, BB raises to $445, Hero calls $305.79 and is all-in

    Spoiler:
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    Old 01-23-2017, 08:11 AM   #2
    duckyfAL
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    i think is a fold on the river, i mean is hard to the v have a flush, but wich hand he is representing ? if he is a loose, maybe if he can make that move with a set, he is a solid reg, he can have a flush.

    See this, the pot is 153, you vb 118 and he raise all in with 445, so you have to put 305 to win 271. Is a complicate spot, but again, i dont think he has so many bluffs there.

    anyways the only hand that he can call 2 streets is exactly tqh he has medium par and then f draw.

    Is a little bit cooler but you can fold.

    Last edited by duckyfAL; 01-23-2017 at 08:19 AM.
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    Old 01-24-2017, 12:34 PM   #3
    lnternet
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    You can't fold 2-card flushes for 4 bets ever. You block his value range a ton. He might show up with a worse value hand. He can bluff.

    If you can somehow exclude 5h4h and most AhX from his range, yes, you have a fold. But how could you possibly do that?
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    Old 01-24-2017, 03:57 PM   #4
    justluck22
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Very interesting points, you swayed me back to calling is correct.

    However, with more thought it comes down him having AhKx AhQx and AhJx Ah10x then 9h10h 4h5h qh10h qh9h Ah10h Ah9h some AhQh and some A5-2h.

    I think it is fair to say only 4h5h i am beating from his value range, which consists of potentially 8-12 combos?

    Then from the bluff range we have 3 AhKx 4 AhQx and 3 AhJx and 2 Ah10x, which is potential, 12 combos.

    I am not over particular about the exact stats, but my intuition is that the average player from the player pool isnt bluffing enough of these combos with the Ah to justify calling.

    Man/most or all AhKx, will not call the river, I think all the AhQx will call the river, I think many/most or all AhJx will call the river, and many Ah10x will just not pull the trigger.

    So now I feel like I am swayed towards folding again. What do you think of this? Still no?
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    Old 01-25-2017, 07:19 AM   #5
    duckyfAL
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    im not gonna be hypocrite, im sure im calling the river because "the heat of the moment" but if you analize really calm, you really are just beating a bluff, and like i say, you dont have enough pot odds to make the call, like i say you have to put 300x to win 250x
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    Old 01-25-2017, 09:32 AM   #6
    lnternet
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    If you are folding 8h7h here he can't jam Th9h or QhTh for value
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    Old 01-25-2017, 09:39 PM   #7
    okno
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Can you fold river here?

    No, not really. I like the blocker bet of $118, although it didn't quite pan out in this particular situation. Like Internet said, how can you possibly put him on AhX. Well played, tough loss.
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    Old 01-26-2017, 01:49 AM   #8
    Monorail
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    I fold this 0% of the time.
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    Old 01-26-2017, 01:34 PM   #9
    iamapod
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    I think the only bluffs he has here is A10 AJ both offsuit with A of hearts and Q9o Q10o with queen of hearts, KQ with K hearts or Q hearts calls river, other Ks that made it to river have two pair and calls, straights call, sets call. Plus sets and two pairs should be check raising flop/turn. This spot is ****ed I usually just say **** you call but thinking about it i think its a fold given that hes a reg that u dont have enough info on to put him on a sick bluff

    Last edited by iamapod; 01-26-2017 at 01:51 PM.
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    Old 01-27-2017, 10:48 AM   #10
    duckyfAL
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    nobody is talking about the size of the bet he has to call to win the pot? , and the V is representing a really strong hand
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    Old 01-30-2017, 07:58 PM   #11
    RoyHobbs
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by duckyfAL View Post

    See this, the pot is 153, you vb 118 and he raise all in with 445, so you have to put 305 to win 271.
    You do realize that once Hero makes a bet of any amount, those chips belong to the pot and no longer can be considered Hero's chips. If the pot going into the river has ~ 153 and Hero makes a bet of ~ 118, then the pot becomes 271. If Villian pushes all in making the pot 716, then Hero can either fold or call ~ 305 to win ~ 694 after the excess is paid back to the Villian. So Hero is betting 305 to win ~ 694 or receiving odds a bit over 2:1 to make the call.
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    Old 02-05-2017, 12:52 AM   #12
    AdolescentPoker
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    You lead out against a calling station for the 2nd nut flush and a double gutter and then when you get the best of it, you consider folding?
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    Old 02-08-2017, 11:33 AM   #13
    ClarkeTheShark
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    You bet all 3 streets with a huge bet on the river as the backdoor flush comes in. You are repping a flush. You have also identified the villain as a reg.

    Taking these 3 things in to account, we know for sure villain is semi-decent. Therefore, he probably will be check/raising this river with a flush the vast, vast majority of the time if not always, most combos of which have us beat. He will not be check/raising with sets and the only hand I could potentially see him C/Ring for value worse than your hand is AQ with a heart perhaps, which probably 3bets preflop.

    That being said, if you know he's really good, I'd say it becomes closer to a call because he can turn hands with the Ah in to a bluff here if he knows what he's doing. With no info on a typical 500NL reg, I like folding though.
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    Old 02-08-2017, 08:32 PM   #14
    adamzerner
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Preflop: Probably doesn't have AA, KK, QQ or AK.

    Flop: Why would he check/call? He wouldn't do this with top pair or an overpair. So this further increases our confidence that he doesn't have AA, KK or QQ. And it also makes us think that he doesn't have AJ or KJ. He's either slow playing a set (most likely jacks or tens) or top two pair, has a straight draw with KQ, 98 or Q9, or maybe is floating.

    Turn: Another check/call, he isn't floating. Doesn't have the pot odds to call with the straight draw, so it's unlikely he has that. Seems to be trying to extract value from a set (or maybe top two pair).

    River: Check/raise this time! I suppose it's possible that he had missed straight with 98 or something and called the turn intending to bluff the river if he missed. It's possible he caught a straight with Q9. Neither of those seem too likely though.

    Anyway, what cards beat you? AQh, ATh, A9h, Axh, Q9h (no other Qxh are calling preflop, or other streets either) and T9h (no other Txh or 9xh would have called). I could see those hands check/calling the flop. It's also possible those hands would check/call the turn and bluff if they missed. Maybe. Seems more likely they'd check/raise the turn.

    However, it also seems odd that a set would be raising here, given the flush possibility.

    All in all, you have to call 305 for a chance of winning about 715, so you need to win about 30% of the time for it to be worth it. This seems like a bit of a screwy hand to me, but I feel pretty good about saying you have at least a 30% chance of winning it, and so calling is the right move.

    Edit: A lot of my confusion comes from the call on the turn, because draws don't have the pot odds. However, maybe the opponent is the type to fall in love with draws/doesn't think too much about pot odds. Or maybe they have reason to think they have the right implied odds. Actually, given that you bet two streaks, perhaps draws do have the right implied odds. It's always tough to tell with that. However, it seems iffy to make that move for implied odds if you don't have the nut flush draw. With all of that said, it seems like a tougher decision, but I still think you have the right pot odds to call the river.

    Last edited by adamzerner; 02-08-2017 at 08:42 PM.
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    Old 02-09-2017, 02:57 AM   #15
    Minatorr
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    No history I'd fold this. Vs balanced players and from GTO perspective, trivial call.

    Dont think you are ever around 30% good here with no history. Yeah sure it's really exploitable but if it's -EV you shouldnt be calling. You dont beat any of his value range. It's not like he's jamming a 5 high flush here
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    Old 02-16-2017, 08:16 PM   #16
    djevans
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Never folding a backdoor flush for 100bb played like this while in game, but after thinking about it, I could possibly find a fold vs an unknown. I would pretty much always call and chalk it up to a cooler. Really hard to say though, nice hand.

    I am betting river slightly bigger. Almost full pot.
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    Old 02-17-2017, 08:07 AM   #17
    banne1992
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    You have to call 306$ into a pot of 697$, so you should call with an equity >30,5%.

    A lot of the bigger flush combos are blocked (k9 ,kq, 10-8, 10-7, q8), left is a10, a4, q10, 10-9 and aq (say the he 3-bets ahqh 60 % of the time). A total range of 4,6 hands

    Lower flushes are 24, 34 and 54. Say that he has mucked these 30% af the time before the river (pre or did decide to muck bottom pair on the flop). Also says that he move in with these 67% of the time and just calls 33% of the time. A total range of 1,4 hands.

    Bluffs, he might chose to bluff with a range looking something like this: 9h9, ah10, qh10, q10h, 9h8, assuming that reg. opponant knows how to work with blockers. These are 3+2+2+3+3= 13 cominations.

    A good reg always have bluffs in his range. Say that an aggressive reg will bluff these hands 17,5-30% of the time, and a conservative reg will bluff these hands 10-17,5% of the time.

    Using the in between values, 23,75% of agg.reg and 13,75% for cons.reg, we get 3,1 bluffs for agg.reg and 1,8 bluffs for cons.reg.

    Your total equity is: (small flushes + bluffs)/(big flushes + small flushes + bluffs)

    Aggainst agg.reg: (1,4+3,1)/(4,6+1,4+3,1) = 49,5% > 30,5%
    Aggainst cons.reg: (1,4+1,8)/(4,6+1,4+1,8) = 41% > 30,5%

    If my assumptions are somewhere correct then this is a call. If the river was say the 2,3 or 5 of hearts, then there's a more big flushes and less small flushes.

    Removing: 1 combination from the small flush range. --> 1,2 hands
    Adding: 2 combinations to the big flush range (k9, kq) --> 6,4 hands
    Adding: 2 bluffs (khq and kqh). --> 3,6 hands for agg.reg and 2,1 hands for cons.reg

    --> ... --> 42,9% against agg.reg and 34% against cons.reg. Still a call.

    Last edited by banne1992; 02-17-2017 at 08:34 AM.
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    Old 02-18-2017, 07:05 AM   #18
    Minatorr
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    ^ That's not how statistics and probabilty works. You're just assigning arbitrary values and hand combinations that favor your conclusion that this should be a call. Low-stakes players aren't often that spewy to be bluffing here, and regs are not jamming any worse flushes. We have a bunch of J/Q/K/A high flush when we barrel this runout, so he's just calling 65hh/76hh/87hh, etc especially when we just bomb this river. It'd take a lot of history to be jamming a worse flush for value
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    Old 02-20-2017, 04:37 AM   #19
    banne1992
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Minatorr View Post
    ^ That's not how statistics and probabilty works. You're just assigning arbitrary values and hand combinations that favor your conclusion that this should be a call. Low-stakes players aren't often that spewy to be bluffing here, and regs are not jamming any worse flushes. We have a bunch of J/Q/K/A high flush when we barrel this runout, so he's just calling 65hh/76hh/87hh, etc especially when we just bomb this river. It'd take a lot of history to be jamming a worse flush for value
    He can't possible have 65h/78h/87h, since those cards are either in your hand or on the board. I do see your point about that he won't checkraise the low flush, and you might be right here. If you're villain here, should you checkraise a low flush here? Let's consider Heros valuerange on this river. Should look something like:

    -All heart-cominations that makes sence to raise from middle position and ain't included in your (villains) hand.
    - Straights: AQ, Q9 (probably suited,
    - All sets, JJ, 10-10, 44 (that you block with 4hxh), 66 (not sure that he bets this on the flop, but he might), KK
    - High two pair combos: KJ, K-10 and J-10.

    Hero is probably not that afraid to valuebet straights, sets and two-pairs. His opponent has just check-called twice and the flushdraws that got there where backdoors.

    Villains check-raise with the low flush will be profitable if Heros calling range contains more sets, straights and two-pairs than flushes. So it really depends on villains thoughts about hero. If villain thinks that hero tends to herocall inte though spots, than he should for sure check-raise the low flush. It villain think that hero only calls with flushes, he should just call with 4hxh. He should also have a wide mix of bluffs in such case. It is hard to make a flush.
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    Old 02-20-2017, 10:33 AM   #20
    HoodedDonkey
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    its very difficult but i dont think i find a fold here, villian will have to be representing Qh9h specifically to beat you here and although this is possible there is only one combination of this hand, which i would expect to raise on the turn, once he realise his equity. his float on the flop and turn then check raise on the river is a super strong line because you have shown alot of strenght throughout the whole hand, but the float on the turn is what leads me to believe that his hand could indeed be Qx9x but not the hearts and there are alot more combinations of this hand. higher flush is possible but not likely because what could he have that can float flop and turn taking into account your sizing which is on the large side, then try bluff a river on this specific card, i dont like it but i think i have to call!!!

    Last edited by HoodedDonkey; 02-20-2017 at 10:44 AM.
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    Old 02-20-2017, 10:39 AM   #21
    HoodedDonkey
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    Quote:
    Then from the bluff range we have 3 AhKx 4 AhQx and 3 AhJx and 2 Ah10x, which is potential, 12 combos.

    i eliminate some of these hands becuase i would expect some of these hands to be pretty polarising pre flop AK AQ from the big playin out of position againts a mp raiser should really be raising pre. and if he is not raising them pre i wouldnt expect villain to turn these hands in to a bluff on this river
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    Old 02-23-2017, 12:13 AM   #22
    shpanko
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    No

    /thread

    (By the way I like your bet-sizing)
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    Old 02-25-2017, 08:45 AM   #23
    aner0
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    no brainer balanced call, if you have any read or data on the villan that suggest you should fold then uhm i guess you could
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    Old 03-03-2017, 04:47 PM   #24
    stkfr06400
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    Re: Can i fold river?

    I would probably have called live and fold online if this make any sense.
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