Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
^ That's not how statistics and probabilty works. You're just assigning arbitrary values and hand combinations that favor your conclusion that this should be a call. Low-stakes players aren't often that spewy to be bluffing here, and regs are not jamming any worse flushes. We have a bunch of J/Q/K/A high flush when we barrel this runout, so he's just calling 65hh/76hh/87hh, etc especially when we just bomb this river. It'd take a lot of history to be jamming a worse flush for value
He can't possible have 65h/78h/87h, since those cards are either in your hand or on the board. I do see your point about that he won't checkraise the low flush, and you might be right here. If you're villain here, should you checkraise a low flush here? Let's consider Heros valuerange on this river. Should look something like:
-All heart-cominations that makes sence to raise from middle position and ain't included in your (villains) hand.
- Straights: AQ, Q9 (probably suited,
- All sets, JJ, 10-10, 44 (that you block with 4hxh), 66 (not sure that he bets this on the flop, but he might), KK
- High two pair combos: KJ, K-10 and J-10.
Hero is probably not that afraid to valuebet straights, sets and two-pairs. His opponent has just check-called twice and the flushdraws that got there where backdoors.
Villains check-raise with the low flush will be profitable if Heros calling range contains more sets, straights and two-pairs than flushes. So it really depends on villains thoughts about hero. If villain thinks that hero tends to herocall inte though spots, than he should for sure check-raise the low flush. It villain think that hero only calls with flushes, he should just call with 4hxh. He should also have a wide mix of bluffs in such case. It is hard to make a flush.