UTG is a 21/18 (1k hands), tight but vv strong reg, cbet of 75%. His range UTG is super tight and he adjusts extremely well to his opponents (Or at least in this sample is running so that it looks it)

BTN is 25/20 in 150 hands. Competent and a bit more aggressive than most on turn and river.

BB is a massive, 50+ Vpip Aggro Fish

The guys have different samples on me but Im sure Im in the 30s somewhere.

Heroine (SB): $1,475.71
BB: $3,024.89
UTG: $1,564.90
MP: $1,112.56
CO: $1,000.00
BTN: $2,005.20

Preflop: Heroine is SB with 2 2
UTG raises to $40, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls $40, Heroine calls $35, BB calls $30

Flop: ($160) 2 6 Q (4 players)
Heroine checks, BB checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($160) 9 (4 players)
Heroine bets $120, BB folds, UTG calls $120, BTN calls $120

River: ($520) T (3 players)
Heroine checks, UTG bets $325, BTN calls $325

Bluff is another 1.3k to go.

Rest of range...
Would probably c/ship straights (occassionally bet)
c/c 99,TT or sometimes bet like 1/4tr~3rd pot
c/f TJ,8T,QT,QJ+ due to reverse blockers
c/f or c/ship my air, Not sure of frequencies but probably way too much considering how rare of a spot this is,,,

I would bet the river and now I would call the river

Thank you for a thoughtful recommendation.

yw

I don't think c/c is that bad vs b/f or b/c. c/f is terrible if that is what you're insinuating.

edit: didn't read your spoiler

check call with 99....1010 more than likely a bet or possible check raise depending on position and how the exact hands feels at the time....QQ has to be a bet or maybe a check raise to a potential stealer depending on pot size and position......humble opinion from 2/5 reg

thought this was actually kind of played in an interesting way. as played and with the dynamics you've given i flat river, i dont see how a shove is particularly conductive in this spot without them having some history on you.

but you really need to be betting river a healthy amount instead of c/c with your hand, and i dont think its close either.

check turn

dont jam river wtf both can have KJss or 87 (or J8ss)

if we are some random in these games playing 30/29 or something prob a not good idea to cr river.

DEUCE DEUCE???? WHY NOT KING JACK?????

I'll put this as it should be (and would be) imo:

Turn: ($160) 9 (4 players)
Heroine bets $120, BB folds , UTG calls $120 , BTN calls $120

River: ($520) T (3 players)
Heroine bets $325, UTG folds , BTN calls $325

because i think ur god @ poker, can you please explain why check>bet turn in this spot.

also elaborate on how you would play certain rivers etc. pleeeeeease.

lol @ bluffing, just call..

I mean even if call were correct, isnt the decision to bluffraise independent of that since it only depends on FE against better hands?


I really doubt either player has more than 0.25 combos of each straight. Whereas there are at least 3-6 combos of oversets.

this for sure.

Trying to get people to fold sets on boards like that is generally huge spew. I mean, nobody likes folding sets on general principle and even if it feels horrible you can generally argue it's a GT call in cases where you hardly ever have better (and you yourself are saying that the villians hardly ever have straights, and they can't have bottom set either).

Interesting that anyone would say check the turn tbh - I'd like to hear the reason for that.

I'm checking the turn here quite often, we are still in great position for a c/r and a million straight draws and flush draws just came in for people to bet and I'd rather get as much money in as possible than bet and get called by multiple opponents.

Most of the hands that call a bet are going to bet the turn when checked to.

Are you saying that you would never bet with a big hand on the turn then? I mean, I don't hate checking or anything but if you want to bet sometimes (and I mean other than a tiny percentage of the time) it's not he worst hand to have it that range. I guess it partially depends on how often someone will stab at the pot with a marginal hand/draw/pure bluff etc, but with the fish still in the pot I'm guessing that the turn will be checked through a decent percentage of the time with these holdings so I'd tend to fire the turn. I could be wrong though.

i dont see myself folding sets in villains' shoes. i have to be paranoid, tilted, or playing super A+ game for me to even come close to folding t. im sure most of the other midstakes players are like me.

UT can totally play KJss 87ss like this. why not?
BT can totally play 87ss J8ss like this. again, why not?

overset, you think UT just calls 99 on turn? He might also raise. And he would def fold TT. BT same thing, probably raises 99 on turn and folds TT. Really dont think oversets are likely at all.

also just read your spoiler
you think button misplayed 87ss if he has that? why? And you think just flatting turn with 99 in his spot is good? I dont follow.

Because I feel UTG will cbet air alot otf given his high cbet% and the dryness of the board, its good board to cbet and multiway and with a huge donky, cbetting most air seems hard to exploit. Maybe 0.25 is a bit much... 0.5 then?

I think 999 can be raised or flatted on the turn depending on player type I personally wouldnt have a raising range at all as them. It would seem extremely annoying to balance, especially so for BTN. I could be wrong though so pls explain.

BTN absolutely never has even 78 because he literally loses to one combo from UTG(i.e. KJss) 5/10 reg is surely good enough to know this, chance of my overcall is super slim anyway.


Hm... I will c/r sometimes, Not sure how often exactly but it does not seem good to bet never..? Its pretty sad if it gets checked around too.

By shoving here, you are trying to get one player to fold a few combinations by turning what is nearly the top of your range into a bluff. You are risking too much when calling gets you better results. I think you are being optimistic about folding out sets 100% by check-shoving this river against almost any two opponents (possibly for slightly different reasons). I know it's possible some people will fold slightly better hands, and I know strong players probably should fold a set here against a player who they view as completely straight forward, but it just won't happen often in an actual poker game where everyone has 6+ tables of 6-max running and sees they're getting check-shoved on and getting great odds on a call with the third nuts and so many other events having to line up for them to be against a better hand (would you ever check-raise KJ here, could you ever turn a hand into a bluff, I have great odds and a set, I call!).

I don't want to say your idea is poor in principal, but with such a strong hand your options are quite different than if you had a hand more similar to QJ here.

Option (1): Call $325 to win $1170 probably close to 80% of the time.
EV = 0.8($1170) + 0.2(-$325)
EV = $871

Option (2): Risk $1130 to win $1170 85% of the time.
EV = 0.85($1170) + 0.15(-$1130)
EV = $825

Option (2b): Risk $1130 to win $1170 90% of the time. This represents your view in OP.
EV = 0.9($1170) + 0.1(-$1130)
EV = $940

I am in agreement with most in the thread that people just aren't folding 99 here and nobody mentioned that really only one person could have 99, which would change our 85% chance to win the hand in "Option (2)" and 90% chance to win the hand in "Option 2b" to a number closer to 81% or 82%. If this is the case, calling is clearly the correct play. "Option 2b" represents your optimism for folding, which I believe to be incorrect. If somehow it were true, then you are correct that check-shoving here could be more valuable.

For turning your hand into a bluff here, you have to win the hand far more often than you will given that the second Villain will have KJ much more often than a set and that both Villains will almost never fold a set, as exemplified by the responses in the thread and by what I have seen in practice with timing, especially facing such great pot odds.

Feel free to make the EV equations a bit more complex with different assumptions about Villains in the hand. For our purposes and in this situation, we lack information to make a more complex equation that would be any more accurate or meaningful. The crux of the problem is how often they have KJ or if Villains will ever fold sets. There is also something to be said for showing people that you're willing to turn literally any portion of your range into a bluff at any time. That will make plays like this far less likely to work in the future than if you were called and had JT or another clear raise or fold hand facing this action.

yea for real

I really like this statement. If you do try to bluffraise in that spot then it doesn't matter if the call is the correct play, you're bluffing. But do you really think you have FE against a better hand? I don't think so. I'm not a fan of how the hand was played but that's just play style I guess.
As played I think you have to call, I know I would make a crying call there (just to save face) but I think it's possible to scoop this pot often enough to make the call ok.

I'd lead flop/turn&river. But I play live so I get a ton more information seeing my opponents react to my bet that help me know if I'm actually beat or not.