Playing a deep stack 2-5NL session this weekend and a super coolerish hand keeps haunting me.

I open with 77 to $20 and a fairly monkeyish villain 3bets to $60. I'm $1100 deep and he has me covered. I call OOP and take a flop.

K73 rainbow. I check middle set, he checks back.

Turn is an off breed K, no flush draw on board. I bet $75, he calls.

River is a 5. I lead strong for $210 and he makes it $465. This raise screams to me that he's trying to get paid off.

I go into the tank forever. I don't have him on a single K like AK, KQ or any other random king after he checked back the flop, although it's certainly a possibility. I also don't think hes 3 betting me with a hand like K7, K3, or K5 as I have a pretty TAG rep and my opening range is pretty thin.

My assessment of the situation is that 50% of the time he checked a K on the flop and now thinks hes absolutely got me trapped and will never get off his hand, 40% of the time he is actually sitting on quads, and the other 10% of the time he's making some weird ill timed bluff.

I decide to ship it in and he snap calls with KK. Deep stack evaporated. I know it's a pretty tough cooler and that's fine, cause sh*t happens.

What I'm wondering is if my read is almost 50/50 that Im actually beat here with 7s full, can a case really be made to just smoothie the river raise and miss out on all the extra value if he has trips?

I agree that villain would check back big percentage of a time Kx on the flop but Id just bet/call otr. I dont think villain would reraise you otr with anything else but fullhouse or some sort of air which means you get called only by better hands.

Bad play on my part I guess. I just couldn't stand the idea of just calling the river to find out that he's holding AK and I missed out on an extra 100 BBs cause I played it safe and put him on quads.

it's not plo and you're not that deep

So how many BBs does one need to have to be considered deep? I consider anything over 200 BBs to be crossing over to deep stack poker.

And yes, its not PLO, but the board texture is so dry that he has an absolute monster hand 90% of the time. KK is just the type of monster that would be checking the flop, certainly more than Kx.

Im just trying to figure out what play is the worse.

Is calling instead of shipping the nit play and losing too much value long term?

Is shipping instead of calling the wild play and losing too many extra BBs long term?

standard bad beat, sorry wp OP, move on and stack chippies.

Off breed K

So you only lose to one combo of KK? Never folding, either reraise or flat. The key is to figure out if he ever has worse hands AND will call a reraise with worse. He only needs two combos of Kx And to call a reraise with those combos for you to be way ahead.

Standard beat you seem to have reasonable logic no need to doubt one self.
Donk flop bet add that to your strat in 3-bet pots OOP also.

Which other hands would you lead on K73r?

Easy shove OTR btw

I'm not a big fan of leading the flop in this spot with that dry board. I'd much rather check to this particular opponent and see if he fires 2 shells with a hand like AQ/AJ. He's almost certainly betting 88-QQ at least once. AA and all his Kx hands are also going to be putting in a flop bet as well.

If I lead the flop I fear he'll fold ace high and even 99 occasionally. By leading the flop, I'm merely crossing my fingers that he has Kx or AA and will raise me.

Against this opponent and with that board, I'm prob only leading with a hand like 10s.

We want to induce a raise/spazz with the donk lead and take control.


Any hand i think im going to lose value on depending on villains tendencies.

Easy jam vs said villian wouldn't even think twice about it.

agree with undercover pro id lead here all day everyday. jamming river is spew btw what do you expect to call you besides quads? you misplayed this one pretty bad op

Where is the value in checking the river? He's going to check back with all his hands that have a little showdown value like 88-QQ, and he might pay off my river bet with those hands.

just call river raise he's never paying you off with less than quads

lol