$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
PartyPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($400) 100bb
UTG+1 ($405.46) 101bb
CO ($400) 100bb
hero (BTN) ($549) 137bb
SB ($222.30) 56bb
BB ($501.50) 125bb

vil - strong reg, open 20 utg, fold to 3b - 55, 4bet 16

Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) hero is BTN Q A
UTG raises to $10, 1 fold, CO calls $10, hero raises to $36, 2 folds, UTG raises to $84, CO folds, hero calls $48

Flop: 3 3 8 ($184, 2 players)
UTG bets $50, hero calls $50

Turn: J ($284, 2 players)
UTG goes all-in $266, hero ($266)

He 4bets 87s utg about 20 min before, and I expect him to 4bet wide here, cause I sq a lot. So my plan is to push AK JJ QQ, and call AA KK AQ KQ.
I obv can just shove flop, but its unbalanced, and I think he would call my shove w AK.
What would you do vs ch turn? And what do u think in general about this hand?

I would definitely raise the flop, and I don't think it's unbalanced. Giving him a free card in 50bb pot would be gross with TT/JJ. If you want to balance your nfd/TT-JJ range with a few combos of KJs, knock yourself out.

Sometimes the most +ev play is so stark that you have to deviate from your preferred "balanced" strategy and form a mixed strategy around that max EV play. This is one of those times.

yah I agree with Renton, I'm jamming all day.

The only reason I'm not jamming is cause I think he'll somehow jam worse if I peel, so I'm calling turn.

std. nh, move on. dont see why you would jam flop to make him fold Axdd and 78s etc. + he can bluff on cards that hit you
+
you call/fold most of your range in this spot no?

Yes. Forget about balance. I dont like jam flop cause I just make him fold worse hands this way, 78 this player bet/call here I guess) And I dont expect him to cbet AK here, maybe only AxKs.

OTT I fold KQ AQ and call KK AA, so yes I fold most of my range (but in this hand I called)

my std size IP

Guess that regarded the fact that you're squeezing at all.

It's a sick load of barf though.

IDK I'm pretty sure it's basic poker 101 that strong draws have the most equity on the flop and lose value on most turns. That you were faced with a tough spot on the Jd turn would seem to prove this.

Whatever "value" you lose by making him fold worse hands to your flop raise you gain and then some by how great your equity is when he has a value hand. If he has KK, he'd love you to just call the 50 so he can get it in against you with with a 3:1 advantage on 80% of turns. And if you're intending on folding this turn, then the flop was an even more obvious shove.

Not sure I follow that last bit. If villain has KK and will shove any turn, then hero shoving the flop, or calling the flop and turn, works out exactly the same. If you knew villain had KK and you fold on a blank turn then you make a gain in equity.

I agree, I don't think balance matters that much in very low SPR spots like these.

I just go for max EV in 4bet pots since they are kinda rare (for me anyway).

Vs. red KK assuming he would check fold on an ace turn, and we'd call and lose on king of spade turns.

EV(shove flop) = (0.399)(184+50+266) - (1-0.399)(266+50)
EV(shove flop) = 9.58



EV(call, fold turns) = (3/44)(50+184) + (8/44)(0.9091)(50+184+266) - (8/44)(1-0.9091)(50+266) - (32/44)(50) - (1/44)(50+266)

EV(call, fold turns) = 55.87

If we add that we call on Q turns incorrectly,

EV(call, call flush and queen turns) = (3/44)(50+184) + (8/44)(0.9091)(50+184+266) - (8/44)(1-0.9091)(50+266) - (29/44)(50) - (1/44)(50+266) - (3/44)(0.7045)(50+266) + (3/44)(1-0.7045)(50+184+266)

EV(call, call flush and queen turns) = 48.13




Vs. AhKh, assuming he shoves every turn

EV(shove flop) = (0.5126)(184+50+266) - (1-0.5126)(266+50)

EV(shove flop) = 102.28



EV(call, call A/Q/s turn) = (2/44)(0.3068)(50+184+266) - (2/44)(1-0.3068)(50+266) + (3/44)(0.9545)(50+184+266) - (3/44)(1-0.9454)(50+266) + (9/44)(184+50+266) - (30/44)(50)

EV(call, call A/Q/s turn) = 96.56



TLDR conclusions:

Because of the paired board, shoving the flop isn't as great of a play as it otherwise would be. Even though we have a 12 outer, we only have 40% equity vs KK. Even still, shoving is better vs AK specifically, especially if we feel like he'll check fold a Q turn (its the worst card for his range so it seems like he should.

Also, the fact that he bets 50 instead of 150 makes calling an inherently attractive choice with position. Sorry I went on my righteously indignant tirade about raising the flop. I still believe that the flop is a raise vs his overall range, and the reasoning is I think we're too likely to make equity mistakes on turns such as this. The more of an easy fold or call this turn is, the more I like calling the flop.

As played it's an easy fold on the turn. You'd need to win the hand 32.6% of the time to call. Even against a wide shoving range you don't win this frequently. For example, even against a range of 1010+ AJ+ you only win 32% of the time. I like 3b pre and definitely wouldn't raise the flop, as I think you only get worse hands to fold. Standard hand, easy turn fold.

Renton555 thanks for your post.

what's going on in this forum? how is that a wide shoving range?

i prefer a flat pre. as played i play it the same. it's not nec about having a balanced flop raising range (which you prolly don't), it's about villain being very likely to never fold anything better (as you've stated yourself) - that strat in itself works as an exploit for villain (it shouldn't if you balance your raise). so how does shoving make any sense, when all it does is to fold out worse? you can't argue that it's due to protection because the resulting EV of that should always be < than the EV you gain from getting another bluff in on avg, esp because we are ip and can bet turn ourselves when checked to (maybe he's folding AK then?). as others stated, if you're very confident that the guy is never bluffing worse than AK on the turn or is underbluffing in general in these spots, you can fold, but then again, if you think the guy's never bluffing like this, pre beomes even more of a flat instead of a 3b/call.

it doesn't just fold out worse hands at all. he can be betting with all sorts of random crap, pairs, lower fds etc and by not raising the flop you gave him the initiaitive to jam the turn where you can't call 2/3rd of the time and he's jamming on all your bricks

if you raise the flop he probably folds some of his pairs you're flipping with and get it in vs his draws.



"not folding out worse" is great an all when you have an actual made hand or have good reason to think your opponent will check the turn to you, but in this case you have neither.

since people are worried about "folding out worse"lets say he jams all turns he would fold on the flop.to start with some of that range includes specifically ak which he might fold on the flop and has you crushed on the turn (cue all the posters who never fold ak on the flop in this spot lol)

if you're gonna fold turn bricks that means 32/47 times you fold and you call the other 15.on those 15 turns where you hit you prob have like 85 pct equity (he'll have pairs w 4 outs,and ak, some of the time)

so 68 pct of the time you call the flop and fold the turn "when he has worse" losing 134 dollars on the hand.

32 pct of the time you call when he ships, and have 85 pct equity in an 800 pot, winning 280 dollars on the hand 32 pct of the time for and equity of about 90 dollars won on the hand.

if he's just gonna jam every turn (which is likely) you're losing 44 dollars by "not folding out worse" when he has worse.

the only way "folding out worse" is a bad thing is if he's a spazz tard and you're just calling every turn no matter what knowing his range is **** and you have it crushed. otherwise "not folding out worse" is burning money.

like i said not folding out worse is all well and good when you know you have the guy buried w a made and will make more money in the long run if you let him hang himself or if he is likely to check the turn . in this case not folding out worse costs yourself 44 dollars-so you better have a ****load of other good reasons for not raising the flop.

i just explained why folding out worse is a good thing- and as for ak he's far more likely to fold it on the flop to a jam than he is to check fold it on the turn.

if you're gonna not raise the flop it's gotta be bc his 4 bet range is so ****ing tight it can basically only be aa kk qq.

... This is not a bad thing? You have a ton of equity against AK. And by shoving you fold out all the random crap he has that he 4 bets wide with. When he has an overpair you still have good equity. As played you have to fold the turn unless you have a very good reason to do otherwise.

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I think that shoving 1010, AK, and AQ is pretty wide. What do you think his shoving range is in this spot? As played do you think this is a call?

I vote for jamming flop. I think AK would likely fold for two reasons:

1. His 4bet range is 16% * 20% = 3.2%. This corresponds well with AA-JJ, AK, and very little else. He can fold the bottom 40% of his range vs a $316 bet to win $234 pot.

2. His $50 bet, if made with AK, seems like an attempt to save money. A standard $90 Cbet would borderline pot-commit him vs jam, since he'd only need to put $226 to win $800s, so he bet smaller to give himself a way out.

4bet 16?, 4bet 87s UTG? i m going with a 5bet and i m very happy about it imo.