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XXXX (BB): $1,621.85
XXXX (BTN): $235.31
HERO (SB): $600

Pre-flop: Dealt to hero 9 A
(1 folds), hero raises to $15, villain calls $12

Flop: ($36) 4 5 9 (2 Players)
HERObets $26,XXXcalls $26

Turn: ($88) K (2 Players)
HERO bets $64,XXXX calls $64

River: ($216) A (2 Players)
HERO bets $174, XXXX raises to $1,513.85,

guy is 32/25/10% 3b over 500 hands, he has been running really well this session, but he hasnt been getting out of line, he shoved river pretty quickly.

i think i am percieved to be quite aggro and barrel heavy, dont think he should see me as a station. I only have to be good 26% of the time, against someone that is semi creative can i just call it off here.

I would assume that that he would think the Ac would be a fairly bad card to barrel, and as such he would perceive your range as fairly strong, making his bluffing frequency lower. We get a good price, but considering he isn't doing this with worse for value and we are only bluff catching i think i find a tightish fold. Def a tough spot with this dynamic though and i can't find too much fault in calling either.

I think the Ac is a great card to barrel and I think it is a great card for him to turn a hand into a bluff too. so flip a coin. I am a call station though

Id fold since on that board he very rarely has a flush combo he folds pre river, and since its bvb there are a tonnn of them (ie. way more Kx, couple more 5x possibly) Would have to be bluffing a lot to make up for this imo.

Just thinking about how many worse hands call our river bet? I assume if he's aggro he raises the flop/ turn with alot of his 2p+ hands. Whats his raise cbet stat?

one thing to take into account, his raise cbet %~ how often is he raising cbets, and do we expect him to be raising most of his flushdraws?

i would probably base my decision on this river on that. if he raises cbets a ton, i'm going to expect him to be raising his flushdraws almost always, in which case i'm calling river. def would need a decent amount of hands/time played to know if this was the case or not.

if his raise flop cb% isn't very high or is in-line, i'm pitching.

lol im a station too, i have changed my mind about two times since reading the replies from top to bottom.

yeah good point, a lot of the flushdraws will have connected to the board on the turn, and this guy has a 0/8 fcb on the turn

he only raises 5% of cbets. I think the river bet is fine, i had triple barreled twice before and he folded both times so i was expecting him to call me down light at some point, i think he will have enough worse two pair combos/kx that isnt folding anyway.

only 5%, i did fold but it did feel like 50/50 at the time.

Fold. Get rid of it. To much out there.

Interesting hand, but hard to add more than has already been said. Having said that, it seems such a close spot that flipping a coin might not be your worst option here, although folding is probably slightly better - there aren't that many hands he turns into a bluff instead of trying to bluff catch compared to his legit amount of value hands.

ur river size is strong so i think he rarely bluffs

I think you made the right decision....

there's $880 in the pot and you have to call $320. I think it's such an obvious bluff raise spot for him that you have to call and be good 27% of the time.

I think in your spot most people would have QT, JT, 67s in their range when they bet the river.

May i ask a few questions?
How would you play 88 and 77/66 from the flop onwards?

Wouldn't these be too loose a cbet for hero on this board? Or do you think since it's BvB, villain will have too wide a range to continue enough?

Damn, i ran out of editing time. Apologies for two posts.

It's just if your river betting range consists of: KK+,99,55-44,AsKs,A9s,A5s-A4s,KcQc,KcJc,KcTc,K9s,Kc8c,Kc7c,QcJc,QcTc,Qc8c,Jc Tc,Jc8c,Tc8c,87s,76s,65s,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,A9o ,and this is assuming you don't bet Ax/Kx on the river, villain has a really hard time calling 9x. He has 16% equity with J9o, so optimal bet size for hero would be a little under 1/4pot. If you 3barreled 88 though(i think 88 is vbet on the flop if you don't have a c/c range, and perhaps this is too loose on the turn as a bluff), then he has 25%, so optimal bet size would be 1/2pot.

I don't understand gameflow that well though(i play 100nl), so your bet sizing may be best with your history. You may also have vastly different pre-flop/cbet bluffing ranges to me as well. Just wanted to know if it was because of history, or if this is the river sizing you would make without history as well?

Also, you could consider turning 79s 98s 9Ts into bluffs on river to widen your bluff range?

I think villain calls the river bet v rearly with worse so this has to be bet/call or check, not sure about sizing.