BTN and SB are regs, but neither is really overly 3bet happy or squeezy. BTN's overall 3bet is 7.5 and SB's overall 3bet is 6.4. The big blind is fishy. Stats on villain are below. I'm not sure I really like pre-flop all that much. Who is considering calling pre-flop?

(MP is also reg and also a reg who doesn't 3bet a ton [5.8 overall] and I am likely not seen as someone who 3bets a ton, so with a fishy big blind and all regs who don't 3bet a ton in between maybe he uses a wider UTG opening range [I don't know].)

As is, any comments on flop, particularly sizing? And plan from here, including sizings and reactions?

Thanks.


Villain stats:

27/20 over 2,400 hands

UTG PFR = 20 (MP is 17)
Fold to 3bet = 49%
Call 3bet = 36%
4bet = 15%
Fold to cbet = 52%
Fold to cbet in 3bet pot = 48%
Check/raise flop = 11% in 97 opportunities
Fold to turn cbet OOP = 45% over 11 opportunities
Call turn cbet OOP = 27% over 11 opportunities
Raise turn cbet OOP = 27% over 11 opportunities
check/raise turn = 3 times out of 30

Hello, it would be interesting to know how much you 3 bet co vs utg.
Given that is range should be really strong to c/c this flop this flop when you cbet in that specific configuration i would probably c/back turn here. His realistic range should be something like QQ+,JJ,,AKs, dont know if he is the kind of player who flat hands like jts qjs kjs and pp3 preflop.
I don't expect to have so much FE and we can't assume to call a check raise with around 25 pourcents of equity without making a big sizing.
I would be quite happy to check back here and take the free card, you can also or proabaly have to check back AK in that spot so its not a problem to be balanced here between big hands, give up and draw.



It depends on your strategy in those positions reg vs reg but 3bet or flatcall seems ok for me. You can possibly fold in a tight strategy aswell i guess.
Cbet and sizings are ok for me. Personally vs decent player i'm not a big fan to have a 3betting range here.

.

On this texture I think your betsize is really efficient in forcing 88 to fold (the flop,) on the turn he does not figure to fold for the same sizing if he did not fold the flop. If you think you can size your bet in a certain way to manipulate his inflection point I would do that. He may react differently with KQ, AQ, QJ, to difference bet sizes, and this is where your read of how he plays turn/river is really important.

It is reasonable to triple barrel any river on this board, because you have the top of your drawing range and the bottom of your showdown range, and your range is uncapped, and his range is capped, so he is going to have to make somewhat of a gross call where even if he is pretty likely to call your bluff it isn't even that bad to have this hand in your bluffing range (with draws that are this strong or stronger) as part of a default game plan. It might lose money in a vacuum depending on the opponent but because of the amount of equity you have and the action so far I wouldn't feel terrible about a bluff not working.

Preflop as I've stated many times, personally I don't have a 3bet range in these positions against any reg at least half-decent (which means the vast majority at these stakes).
I flat 100% if there's a fish in the blinds, otherwise maybe 50/50 (unless pfr is a beast, in which case I usually shy away).
You rep very polarized when you 3bet here imo, which is why I don't like it and the reason I don't consider pfr's flatting range capped at all. I've seen pfr show up with AA plenty of times in these spots, and I think it's a good strategy to flat that specific hand because of how infrequently you will be able to continue vs a 4bet (considering his blockers).

As played, bet turn for sure because you should have a decent amount of fold equity still and all other options seems meh.

Your are right guys 2 barrels here it's super std what i do in game quite automatically but here on 2+2 i check, Shame on me ;] .
You probably still have FE even thought i don't expect him to have a lot of hands folding turn and he might not check raise here that often to make the check back more profitable than a 2 barrel.
Plus the fact that yu can take his whole stack river when yu hit and that yu will always want to 2barrels your big hands here, anyway..
So maybe size quite big turn to profitably call a shove if he decides to check raise and maximize your FE vs the weakest part of his range.


Totally agree that yu should flat pre 100% if you have bad players behind.
Im also ok that yu could shove any river if yu know that vilain is solid enough to fold AK on the river, its not that obvious but yu will put him in a hard spot.

My 3bet range vs. this villain here is probably something like:

~99% of AA;
~85% of KK;
Some suited A's like this hand and maybe some low suited connectors or gappers like 54s or 64s; and
Maybe some QQ.

Maybe I should look at that.


What is the bet size on the turn? I was on other tables and did not properly think through my bet size here. Here is further action:

Hi,

Am I reading the HH wrong? Hero is CO and Villain is UTG, why is hero acting first OTF and OTT ?

Wow, I did not notice this. The hand history must be messed up somehow. Villain acted first on the flop and the turn. He check/called the flop and then check/shoves the turn.

If you pm me villains name I can give better advice

As played can't really bet fold since you have 25% equity against a set. And I think it's probably a bet to fold out qq JX type stuff if you think he's peeling flop wide vrs you. Don't mind preflop in a vacuum assuming you want to bluff in this spot. But I wanna know that the other dude is leaking whether it's folding too often pre, flop, or turn before I 3b with a plan of attack for the specific leak. Don't wanna just 3b for balance sake against a stationreg

My brain just assumed you were the small blind, because of the "folds" that follow your 3-bet, and acting first on every round after the flop.

The hand history is really screwed up and being CO obviously changes a lot of things.

With BB being Fishy I prefer flatting this hand.

As played I bet/fold turn about 125ish

Doing a quick calculation you need about 27% EQ (if I did it right) And I think you have about 22%. So seems like a fold. Definitely sucks but I still like the turn bet.

The problem with your eq Calc is that's it's a 3b pot we have the nfd and a gutter and got raised. That's annoying so annoying. So we pick up an additional 5% f u equity and that makes it a call. Also if villain is a nemesis that adds another few f u % equity.

Also if he ever does this with a worse draw and we fold it's a mega disaster.

For a smallish mistake ev wise I wanna see his hand just incase so I can make adjustments to my pf range if necessary

While playing, I estimated roughly around those same numbers and I folded. It seems gross though. And like my turn bet sizing can't be good and, as I said, I actually rushed it and didn't think enough; and maybe this is around the worst turn bet sizing possible here. Agree with that?

But even after thinking about it now afterward, I'm not sure what a good sizing would be.

I think we will have plenty of AK JJ AA type hands that we can call with so, I don't mind just folding.

I think 125 accomplishes the same thing. I think we are targeting Jx QQ type hands. It roughly sets up a PSB on the river.

I think I would flat pre flop your in position you can always take the lead away on the flop and it puts him in a spot where he has to c bet into you. Even as fishy as he is a raise UTG you still have to give some respect.

Do you ever fold here I know its not relevant to the hand as played but just curious.

On the flop as played I am sick because a call is bad odds if he calls two streets and a raise is going to be huge chunk.

If you had flatted you could have a cheaper raise here invest the 50$ on a flop bluff that maybe has more FE than the pre flop raise.

and on the turn gosh I really am terrified to bet into him again because he withstood a 3 bet for 50$ and called 50$ on the flop with draws out there feels real real strong now.

I think you just check it back you sure earned it and you gave yourself 2:1 on the flop too see two cards so let him give you your free roll to the nuts and you did good math and will win long term.

really good post

This is interesting - are you flatting pre because you'll get squeezed a lot at higher limits?

Wouldn't a fish in the blinds make you more likely to 3bet as we don't really want to play a premium pair multiway?

Talking about the PFR - as you don't see his range capped - do you think it's a good idea if you're 3bet when you're UTG to not have a 4bet range? I.e. flat AA, KK, and anything else? Assuming the 3bettor has a mix of value and bluff of course, obviously we're always 4betting against a guy who only 3bets QQ+ and never folds to a 4bet.

Because if so I might start trying that myself.

That's part of the reason.

Doesn't concern me that much tbh, 3way pots with fish (and IP vs reg) are fairly easy to navigate.

AA maybe, because it kills his 5bet range and rarely overcards his KK. Guess it depends a lot on his tendencies in 3bet pots as well. If he's the type who x/folds a lot or just fires one and gives up, you're just making him realize equity for free most of the time.

Turn card is like Christmas. Bet to set up stacks shove any non bowl river