This hand took place over the weekend in a 5-10 game at Foxwoods. Villain is a HS regular who regularly plays the biggest games in the casino at any given time, and is sitting in on this particularly (and unusually for Foxwoods) juicy 5-10 game on this day. Hero is relatively new to the 5-10 scene over the past few months, but guesses that Villain views Hero as a competent regular.

Villain's stack is ~$3400 and Hero has him covered. We're playing 10-handed.

***HAND***

CO posts $10, Villain (UTG+1) raises to $50, CO folds, Hero (BTN) 3-bets to $155 with 65, Villain calls.

Pot: $335
Flop: QJ7

Villain checks, Hero bets $175, Villain calls.

Pot: $685
Turn: 9

Villain checks, Hero bets $450, Villain calls.

Pot: $1585
River: 8

Villain bets $1600, Hero ???

Thoughts on every street would be much appreciated.

I would just call pre unless you think that villain is folding too much to 3 bets. When villain opens utg+1 in a 10 handed game I don't think he will fold much to a 3bet as his range is quite strong. Further more it's unlikely that the blinds will squeeze for this same reason.

As played I like the flop c-bet. (Villain will probably fold TT 99 88)

I would check back the turn, I don't think villain is folding very much of his range when a 9 rolls off. he's calling with any Q and JT. I'm not sure what he's folding besides maybe KJ or AJ.

I would fold the river. Most of the non-straight hands that villain has have a good amount of SDV that I don't think villain would turn into bluffs. (Maybe AJ and KJ but your turn bet folds most of these hands out).



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Thanks for the comment. I think you're right that villain will be continuing with a lot of his range on the turn, but I fired a second barrel because:

1. I want to have some bluffs here, and 65cc works nicely because it has zero showdown value but could hit a very deceptive nut hand on the river, and
2. If he just calls the bet, he's extremely capped and my plan is to overbet blank rivers (and clubs)

Thoughts?

The obvious scare card is any 10, however I cant really see how likely that is against most opponents. I could see 10-9s or A-10d as a loose opening but that's a loose call OOP as well. Pckt 10s should fold the flop usually. If he could open with 10-9s or A-10s, then J-10s is in his opening range as well and even Q-10s. That's such a small range of his hands though.

Would he play Qs or Js like this? Potentially, based on how he views your 3! range however I would expect him to x/r the turn and give himself a better chance of playing for stacks.

I could see AKdd playing the hand this way potentially and AQs.

I wouldn't expect most of his calling hands on the flop to fold to the turn bet but I can definitely see the logic behind betting turn however I would only bet if you would continue with the top of your range as well.

Personally I would just call pre. Unless he's getting out of line because he is used to playing much higher stakes his range is going to be very strong here 10 handed. He is also less likely to respect your 3bet given that you are on the button. On the other hand I don't hate using a hand like 56s as one of your bluffs, so I don't have a big problem with it.

On the flop: I'm not sure I like a bet, Sure you can fold out 88-TT but this is just a board that hits so many more hands in some way that I don't think we're going to get enough folds.
On the turn: I think I like to follow up as played with another barrel. It continues the story of a big hand plus we just gained a huge amount of equity. I'm still not sure we're going to get a whole lot of folds though so I don't dislike checking back and trying to realise that equity we just picked up
On the river: I don't see too many bluffs here. Maybe AK of diamonds but most other hands have some showdown value and he isn't going to turn them into bluffs very often. I'd expect to see JT or T9 almost every time here(If I made the call, which I wouldn't)

I would just fold pre. It's not like he's a whale or regfish that is terrible postflop, and you have 6 high. Yeah sure you have position, but you have 6 high against a competent regular who 5xed it pre from EP. Additionally, you're going to get squeezed here a non-zero % of the time. From the BB, I'm defending.

OTF would just give up. Hits his range way too hard, we don't get enough folds. Not many good cards to barrel OTT either.

OTT as played, I don't like the barrel either because we don't get enough folds and we get x'red here a lot.

OTR, I call because we're at the top of our range, we don't really block any bluffs although we hold 65cc, and I think a competent HS reg conceivably has a bluffing range here.

I'm fine with the 3 bet with a 56cc for deception.

Flop. No problem with a C bet but obv fold if X/R.

Turn. It's tempting to continue here with added equity but a X/R presents a problem so I might check back in position and give myself a chance to realize that equity with a favorable river card.

If the higher stakes regular views you as a thinking player who would fold two pair or over pair to a large bet such as you're facing, then there is some merit to him trying to bluff you here. He likely does not have any idea you made the straight, albeit the lowest one possible. How often does he show up with JT, T9, TT, KT here?

I think villain's value range is pretty small on the river. Let's say he opens pre and calls the 3-bet with every reasonable TX combo, so T8s+ (an aggressive estimate). On the flop, I think he check-raises KTdd, ATdd, T9dd, T8dd, and maybe KTcc and T9cc. He might also check-raise ATcc and T8cc, but I doubt he'd flat with them (and if he did, he's check-raising them on the turn). That means' his TX flatting range is QTs, JTs, 2-3 KTs combos and 2-3 T9s combos. On the turn, he would absolutely check-raise his remaining KTs combos with two flush draws available, and would continue to call with QTs, JTs and the 2 remaining combos of T9s.

This means villain gets to the river with at most 8 combos of TX. The problem, as many of you have pointed out, is what types of hands he could bluff with. Hands like KcJc make some sense, but there aren't many of those available. That said, he only needs to be bluffing 4 combos to make me indifferent to calling with my bluff catchers.

Perhaps the more important question is whether or not 65s really is the best hand for me to call down with? If we assume I have zero TX combos in my range (and I'm not sure that's true -- I probably should know that lol), wouldn't hands like QQ or JJ be much better to call down with, since they block the biggest portion of his value range?

I think given the dynamics you described about you being new to this game, and villain a reg in some of the higher games, I suspect he has you pegged for understanding he won't have many Tx in his range here, and knowing you won't as well and not going much further than that in his meta. So I don't think he's bluffing.

I don't think there's enough he's turning into a bluff here either that really makes sense, so I lean towards a fold.

To your second post in here though, I don't think you need to have a lot of bluffs on that turn and board. At least I don't think it's optimal to have a ton of bluffs in a 3-bet bluff here once you're called on the flop. You'll typically have a pretty wide checking range IP, and I think that's fine.

Isn't it possible he has you pegged as having very few 10s here? I still lean towards fold too but I feel like it's super close. I guess we could have 10-10 / J10s but he easily could exclude those from our 3-bet range when making the decision to bomb river.


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I really shouldn't have too many 10s in my range, which is why his bet makes sense, and he should balance with the appropriate number of bluffs.

Correct... that's why I said:

And TT/JT are rarely betting that turn fyi.

I think villain is aware our range has little Tx combos and could be turning KQ/AQ even into bluffs here. You look like AA, you have to fold Vs river donk. Sizing is a little worrying but yah I think it's v close as well.

You said villain plays the biggest game at Foxwoods but you didn't say whether he was any good. Have you ever played pots with him? Or have you witnessed him play any keys pots that might be useful in this hand. If he is a good player beating the highest game in the room then he should be bluffing this river a decent amount of the time or he is exploitable the times he does have a T. As others have said you are at the top of your range so call.