Dont have HH, but villain is on the taggier side. 20/18. We have no history together, sample is small.

According to PTR he looks decent over 110k hands.

UTG is a regfish who posted and folded pre from UTG. I am MP

Effective stacks are 100bb

Hero is dealt AA

Pre Flop
UTG posts 4.00, Hero raises to 16.00, CO calls 16.00, 4 folds

Flop (32.00)
J 6 4

Hero bets 24.00, CO calls 24.00

Turn (80.00)
J 6 4 5

Hero bets 66.00, CO raises to 365.00 (all-in), Hero?

fold

call

fold

call

call

man i think u gotta call this. A 20/18 prolly doesn't cold call small SCs in that spot, so don't think he can have turned many 2pairs/straights. Also, calling small PPs might be possible, but unlikely. Also, he might raise sets on the flop a %. He could of course have JJ, but also handsl like QQ or other random stuff. Not sure what random stuff a 20/18 is going to turn up with though :s Meeeh, I don't like it, but i think it's a close call.

although i think that he might have JJ a certain % of time, you should call because of the fact that it is more likely that he has Jhxh or spiked a decent draw on the turn and tries to semi-bluff you. it's close, but i guess you gotta call...

I fold, we are getting around 36% pot odds and I think we can't even hit 30% equity
Equity Win Tie
MP2 29.70% 29.70% 0.00% AdAh
MP3 70.30% 70.30% 0.00% 66, JdJh, JhJc, 87s, KhJh, QhJh, Ah7h, As7s, 9s7s, As6s, Ah5h, As4s

And I'm being fairly optimistic about what hands he would call Flop shove Turn with. Would he do something like calling Flop with KsQs and just jam turn right away? I doubt it. Didn't include 44 and 55 just to reduce his value combos since he can be expected to raise quite often

We don't know whether there are any squeeze happy monkeys in the blinds, or twitchy short stacks, so we can't totally discount other big pairs at all. You also don't include 77 an other stuff he could have sometimes.

Meh, seems like a shrug-and-not-like-it call to me.

I'd modify this range with QQ+,AJ+, and way less fds.

Seems a bit optimistic to put many of these combos in his range. Don't really expect people to jam worse hands here for value like that. Maybe some big draws, but with the 3 straight on board there are less of those and more pair + draw which would not be shoving.

He is quite likely to have flatted flop with sets planning to shove some turns like this one which makes the board crazy drawy. Like I'd say it's perfectly possible he'd flat sets here on the flop as much as 75% of the time. Of course just guessing, but I think discounting a tonne of set combos because of flatting flop might be a mistake. The turn is good for his range, he now has straights/2pairs/another possible set. And I don't think he'd ever expect us to bet/fold AJ+, so don't think he's turning many weak made hands into big semi-bluffs here.

I think it's close, but just don't think we see enough of the random draws and AJ-KK hands to make it a close call.

LOL at the one word responses. Thanks for the content guys! /rant

There are so many draws on this board or pair plus draws you could be betting that have such good equity against hands like KJ (not to mention that you're value betting worse) that this seems like a kind of ridiculous spot for you to fold AA since it's a pretty decent spot for him to check-shove a lot of slightly worse hands for protection and avoiding a tough river spot with a face up hand on a scary card. Villain may even have backed into a combo draw of his own with something like Q9 and decided that it's now or never.

I wouldn't be worried about sets that often at all or even many two pairs taking this action. With straights, I would actually expect a lot of people to slow play anticipating a river barrel coming with a missed draw or a worse hand for value quite often. That said, I wouldn't totally rule it out, maybe discount it a bit.

thanks for contributing shootaa. Clear and concise as usual. Just wanted to point out that villain is ip, tho.

I'll get more stats when I am at home. I just can't see anyone doing this with less than 2pair/combo draw that has sick equity against me.