he has barely any data and hasnt given any real reads. this is why i hate giving strat advice in threads without in depth reads.

I get the feeling you're taking the slightly emotionally-driven stance of HUD's/Robot playing vs Contextual perception + experience.

I've played the majority of my hands w/o a HUD and I'll be the first one to say that everything in poker is situational and that 3b/4b/5b decisions are 90% dynamics-driven, especially with regulars.

OP has given us no such info, so we're to assume that such dynamics haven't been developed between him and villain, so we just have:

-Stats. 200 hands is a decent sample, VPIP and 3b don't take that many hands to converge. Within 200 hands I'm 95%+ of the time extremely close to my true %'s.

-Position and Context. Villain opens UTG a (extremely likely) super tight range, 2 players call and hero, a super tight 3bettor squeezes pretty big against what he knows (and what villain knows that he knows) is a super tight opening range.

-Sizing. A min-4b OOP, which is almost always indicative of an ultra-polarized range, there's no way villain is Min-4b'g JJ OOP like that. Again, BTN vs blinds and such more typical aggro dynamics play completely differently, I agree.


Given all that info, it's my experience that you run into AA a huge % of the time here, and I mean pretty much always until, and this is important going back to your post about "I'll move up to 2/4 and start 4b'g every other hand and make millions", a certain dynamic has been developed between the two players.

But first time it happens, my advice is just let it go. As someone demonstrated earlier itt, UTG is going to have to be 4b bluffing 7 combos to make a shove a BE proposition.

Honestly don't see it happening. Plus it's not even as though you get some image-EV from jamming 79s into AA, your stack off would be labelled as a "cooler, standard w/e..."

I think these are typical spots where players go broke without a second thought where you can save money by actually realizing that yeah, even though you have QQ and it's the 3rd best hand in the game, given all the info at hand, it's extremely likely you're against one of the other 2 better hands left, likely enough that you're not getting the 45% equity you need to go broke.

at my stakes this is a standard squeeze with a wide range on the button so maybe im over thinking it.

the math is so close that i'd just get it in here as well.

You pbly have a higher 3b% than OP :P

Don't think it's that close. AK was included in the calc and that Min-4b imo takes AK out of the value part of the ultra-polarized range that this kind of 4b indicates.

Honestly given sizing I'd say it's KK/AA or a bluff and with such a tight opening range UTG, what is he turning into a bluff? AQo? 88?

He's not even opening AJ UTG, so what's left? Do we think he's min-4b/folding TT? 99?

So maybe he's turning AQ into a bluff, but if you're really only against KK and AA for value and I think that's accurate given OOP sizing, villain's going to have to be turning AQ into a bluff an awful % of the time to make this a profitable call.

Actually I'll run the calc just out of curiosity.

Ok, here goes, someone pls correct me, I could easily be making a mistake but I think this is accurate:

-Hero jams villain folds, hero wins 204$

-Hero jams, gets called by AA/KK has 18% equity, loses 391$ 82% of the time (-320$) and wins 523$ 18% of the time (94$), so EV = -226$

So villain has to be bluffing more than 50% of the time for a shove to be b/e.

I know that only giving AA/KK for value is extreme but I think we can agree that such a small sizing OOP is clearly indicative of a very polarized range and that villain is not doing that with JJ or even AK.

So if my calc is right, villain would have to be bluffing 53% or so of the time to make a shove b/e, seems like a clear fold to me, but again only because of position, stats, and mostly sizing in that context.

Just get it in.

I did the math above. I don't know if the general setup of your equations is correct but I can say right off the bat some of your numbers are wrong. Hero doesn't win $204 with a jam. There isn't that much money in the pot.

secondly I think it would be pretty rare for a TAG player to not have AK in his 4betting range, and the sizing really isn't that small considering villain has position. Taking AK out of a midstakes TAG regs 4betting range in this spot is just silly, it's basically MSNL 6max 101, 4bet AK vs a sqz with players left to act. Whether he makes it $110 or 120 they are going to end up with a 1.5 spr on the flop and hero isn't going to change his decision to flat/jam/or fold based on those 10 dollars.

this spot isn't even close to as close as some of you seem to think it is. the guy can have JJ here.

he can if he's bad or he thinks you're bad/crazy. not a lot of value in 4betting JJ and calling it off in this spot as villain.

agree to disagree i guess. this is how i'd play JJ here as villain, fwiw. i'd be pretty comfortable about it too.

You would min 4 bet JJ OOP against someone with HERO's stats? Honestly? Where is your coaching listing? Would love to watch you play some hands, let me know what site you play on if could go over some hands with me.

Wow I read wrong, thought someone said Hero was button, so villain not OOP. Sorry for any confusion. Playing JJ that way could make more sense then.

I misread and thought we were button when we are sb.

Not to be a nit, but the AKs hands are in the 16 combos of AK. I'd also expect this type of player to call the 3-bet more often with AK in position than with AA/KK but they could have JJ sometimes also. I dunno, it looks close either way.