Originally Posted by homeboy604
186 hands is not enough to go on. in this case, situational info trumps your hud info.
I get the feeling you're taking the slightly emotionally-driven stance of HUD's/Robot playing vs Contextual perception + experience.
I've played the majority of my hands w/o a HUD and I'll be the first one to say that everything in poker is situational and that 3b/4b/5b decisions are 90% dynamics-driven, especially with regulars.
OP has given us no such info, so we're to assume that such dynamics haven't been developed between him and villain, so we just have:
-Stats. 200 hands is a decent sample, VPIP and 3b don't take that many hands to converge. Within 200 hands I'm 95%+ of the time extremely close to my true %'s.
-Position and Context. Villain opens UTG a (extremely likely) super tight range, 2 players call and hero, a super tight 3bettor squeezes pretty big against what he knows (and what villain knows that he knows) is a super tight opening range.
-Sizing. A min-4b OOP, which is almost always indicative of an ultra-polarized range, there's no way villain is Min-4b'g JJ OOP like that. Again, BTN vs blinds and such more typical aggro dynamics play completely differently, I agree.
Given all that info, it's my experience that you run into AA a huge % of the time here, and I mean pretty much always until
, and this is important going back to your post about "I'll move up to 2/4 and start 4b'g every other hand and make millions", a certain dynamic has been developed between the two players.
But first time it happens, my advice is just let it go. As someone demonstrated earlier itt, UTG is going to have to be 4b bluffing 7 combos to make a shove a BE proposition.
Honestly don't see it happening. Plus it's not even as though you get some image-EV from jamming 79s into AA, your stack off would be labelled as a "cooler, standard w/e..."
I think these are typical spots where players go broke without a second thought where you can save money by actually realizing that yeah, even though you have QQ and it's the 3rd best hand in the game, given all the info at hand, it's extremely likely you're against one of the other 2 better hands left, likely enough that you're not getting the 45% equity you need to go broke.