50bb table.
Villain had shown some crazy tendencies. Flush card hit on the river and he donked with a pair. So I had the impression that he was an aggro fish.
Against such a wide range, 70% VPIP, do you like my play here?

iPoker - €4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: €441.60 (VPIP: 73.33, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
SB: €337.40 (VPIP: 27.88, PFR: 23.03, 3Bet Preflop: 14.58, Hands: 337)
BB: €122.00 (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 49)
Hero (UTG): €200.00
MP: €200.00 (VPIP: 24.03, PFR: 20.16, 3Bet Preflop: 5.49, Hands: 270)
CO: €68.00 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB €2.00, BB posts BB €4.00

Pre Flop: (pot: €6.00) Hero has Q A

Hero raises to €12.00, fold, fold, BTN calls €12.00, fold, fold

Flop: (€30.00, 2 players) 9 J 9
Hero checks, BTN bets €21.00, Hero calls €21.00

Turn: (€72.00, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets €50.40, Hero calls €50.40

River: (€172.80, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets €120.96, Hero calls €116.60

I would b/f flop
As played i would fold turn and wait 4 batter spot

flop is a good call but turn feels really close to me.
I probably wait for a better spot in position to pick him off.

Other way around for me.

Ya the turn makes it even more unlikely he has a pair. Maybe bet the turn, I don't think he would raise bluff, try to 'price out' a draw. If he calls turn the best I would hope for is check check on river.

As played the river sucks, he could have gotten there with as much as a 7 and as you know he could be bluffing. That's when you do your gorilla math and decide based on his tendency what is the likely hood of each option and decide.

Ummm, no.
Ace high beats 3 pairs.


To add something constructive as well, i'm folding turn, as we should have enough better hands and might "look like Jx" in the recreational's eyes when we x/c flop.

woops

How come? We're often ahead on the flop and drawing live to 6 outs if not. I get the counterfeit factor for his small pps on the turn but we're drawing dead to his turn range that beats us and basically can only win the hand if he's double/triple barreling everything a high % of the time.

Not only it is the other way around, check/calling here is plain awful

Flop and turn is good. You can play if differently but vs loose aggro range I'd play it the same.

River, I feel the aggro fish who bet three times reasonably big isn't bluffing there often enough to call. When they check somewhere or bet smaller, they bluff tons, but the most aggressive line possible is usually still not filled with enough bluffs.

But if he is aggro enough you can call down of course. Tough to comment on from the outside.

I think flop and turn are ok, I probably just fold river

Thx for the feedback. I went with my read that he was crazy and I don't regret my decision. He had made some random 7x and 5x opens + that bluff I saw. I wouldn't do this vs most players, but this fish was a special case.
And as Internet pointed out, I saw him make many b/x/b bluffs or similar.
I later got my money back from those bluffs he made.
I also think that he might slowplay turn, esp. with Jx

iPoker - €4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 110.4 BB (VPIP: 73.33, PFR: 26.67, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 15)
SB: 84.35 BB (VPIP: 27.88, PFR: 23.03, 3Bet Preflop: 14.58, Hands: 337)
BB: 30.5 BB (VPIP: 23.91, PFR: 8.70, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 49)
Hero (UTG): 50 BB
MP: 50 BB (VPIP: 24.03, PFR: 20.16, 3Bet Preflop: 5.49, Hands: 270)
CO: 17 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 9 J 9
Hero checks, BTN bets 5.25 BB, Hero calls 5.25 BB

Turn: (18 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets 12.6 BB, Hero calls 12.6 BB

River: (43.2 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BTN bets 30.24 BB, Hero calls 29.15 BB

I think you overestimate the reads you can have after 15 hands. Feels like you're mixing in reads you got after this hand.

Without originally looking at the spoiler, I was thinking the flop smacks our opponent's range quite well. I think his range is weighted wayyyy more towards value than bluffs. Regardless, against his value hands and the occasional bluff, we have ~30% equity and we are getting ~40%(?) pot odds. Basically -EV.

If bet is less than pot you're always getting less than 33% from the pot.

If P is the pot before the bet and B is the bet size then the equity you need to call is:

B/(P+2B)

So when B = P, equity = P/3P or 33%.

Yea youre right. This makes it barely profitable or break even. Pretty close spot IMO