Villain in this hand is 29/23/8% 3bet/16% 4bet - 71/59/40 f/t/r cbet stats respectively over 1.5k hands. I have a lot of history with villain. He views me as splashy/borderline fishy maniac. I've been 3-betting the table a ton from all positions and he's aware of that. The biggest pot we played prior to this one is this hand below. I trusted my read and played the hand in this fashion because I have a rock solid read on villain that he always slowplays big hands IP to induce barrels no matter what the board texture so his raising range here is extremely extremely weak:
Merge $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
MP: $582.50
CO: $328.79
BTN: $400.00
Hero (SB): $593.94
BB: $599.60
UTG: $255.76
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is SB with 5
5
4 folds,
Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8
Flop: ($24.00) 6
Q
4
(2 players)
Hero bets $16.00,
BB raises to $53.33,
Hero raises to $125, BB calls $71.67
Turn: ($274.00) 2
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $137.00,
Hero raises to $456.94, BB calls $319.94
River: ($1187.88) T
(2 players)
Final Pot: $1187.88
Hero shows 5
5
BB shows A
4
Hero wins $1184.38
(Rake: $3.50)
With that in mind, villain probably just views me as clicking buttons. Nothing much happened since that hand. He 3bet me a couple of times, I folded one and 4bet bluffed the other which he folded to. I also have a very good read that villain cannot value bet thin at all and that he pot controls one pair a lot on the turn and river in 3bet pots. Villain just won a big pot off of a fish so he's definitely not tilting or anything. Here's the hand:
Merge $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter
SB: $314.66
BB: $162.60
UTG: $657.50
Hero (CO): $1059.65
BTN: $922.98
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is CO with K
A
UTG raises to $12,
Hero raises to $36, BTN calls $36,
2 folds, UTG calls $24
Flop: ($114.00) J
T
5
(3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks,
BTN bets $76.00, UTG folds, Hero calls $76
Turn: ($266.00) 8
(2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $199.50, Hero calls $199.50
River: ($665.00) T
(2 players)
Okay so I know that villain likes to call all suited connectors/suited aces/small pocket pairs against my raises pre-flop 100 BBs deep. I think his cold-calling range includes 22-QQ, TJs, KQ, AQ, AK, AJsuited. I doubt he's ever 4-betting AK given depth of stacks or QQ for that matter. He plays so straightforward that I immediately remove KK/AA from his range when he cold calls since he would want to get more money in pre-flop given stack sizes.
I decided to check the flop since it sucks getting raised, it hits a cold callers range pretty hard, and we have showdown value. I think his range for betting the flop is AK/AQ/QQ/KQ/55/89s/TT/JJ/JTs. I decide to peel the flop for reason I said above plus I have a nut draw. I think his range narrows considerably on the turn when he bets again. I think his range shrinks to AQ/KQ/TT/JJ/JTs/55. He would definitely check QQ here for pot control as well as 89s. I discount him having any random T9s type hand here since he would definitely check flop with that. I also discount a chop AK since i think he plays showdown value with it from the flop onwards instead of tripling with it. I call again, thoughts?
Given all that, do you think a shove here is a bluff often enough to justify a call given how much money is already in the pot? Once the T hits the river he reps extremely narrow since quads is really hard to make. His value range is like KQcc, JJ, 55, JThh, TT
Anyone play the hand differently at any point? Thanks for your input
Two Plus Two
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