Villain is 29/22 10 3bet - 48 WWSF - 24 WTSD - 50 W$SD - 53 AFq - 74 F3B - 38 Steal - 5k hand sample

I think he's a winning player. Definitely gives me a tough time but the few times we have shown down and I had a good hand he's shown down some weird weird floaty crap.

Other player is a fish, so take that into account when you think about his opening range on BTN.


$4 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players


SB: $549.85
Hero (BB): $491.50
BTN: $562.60

SB posts SB $2.00, Hero posts BB $4.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero has Q K

BTN raises to $8.00, fold, Hero raises to $32.00, BTN calls $24.00

Flop: ($66.00, 2 players) 2 J 6
Hero bets $46.00, BTN calls $46.00

Turn: ($158.00, 2 players) K
Hero bets $92.00, BTN calls $92.00

River: ($342.00, 2 players) 8
Hero


EDIT: Villain is American and were playing on an American Network

All you need to do is not fold. I would chk/snap here. You want to have a c/c range on the flush card riv, and he probably expects you to value-jam AA+ every time, so he should be shoving when checked to a lot, and...

This makes a good case for a c/c.

seems like a standard all in to me. don't really like c/c on this one.

Its a pretty scary run out if he has Jx. Do you think he'll call a shove with Jx? If you dont think he does seems kinda lame but maybe c/f is best.

at first i liked bet-bet-bet, then i realized the 8 on the river was a heart.

now, idk, i guess it depends how frequently you think your opponent is going to bet air or a worse 1pair hand when checked to, versus how frequently he's going to hero call you on the river.

...described villain sounds a lil fps and by checking you can plausibly rep having cbet the flop because thats what ppl do, and then followed thru on the scarecard turn and then having given up on the river when the flush was completed and he called with a K and J out? so mayyybe lean towards c/c? doesnt seem to be a clear consensus itt.

Looks like a really clear check to me. Leaning towards check fold, but I don't know. Sure check fold feels a bit dirty but against the majority of the population I expect it to be correct.

Need to know a decent bit more about opponent before you can profitably c/c here imo. His f3b is semi-high even though it will likely be lower btn vs blinds and being 3 handed, fold to cb and fold to cb in 3b pot stats would he helpful as would your image/stats. Again does he raise cbets frequently, is he the type to flat his entire range until river including nutted hands/hearts? Over a 5k sample you should have a decent idea about these things. OTT, with stacks and board texture he should expect you to jam river frequently + his club floats bricked thus even though he may float flop frequently, I doubt he's floating the turn too.

In regards to hands he's turning into a bluff, doubtful he jams aj/qj, possibly j10-j9s, 1010/99 (which should be folding turn for a number of reasons) and a few aq/a10s combos. I don't think jamming yourself is going to be great either, guy doesn't appear to be stationy and your image would have to be v loose, which I'm assuming isn't the case.

Without more info I'm c/fing, I don't feel the hands he's turning into a bluff outweigh his plethora of value.

I'm pretty surprised to see people suggesting c/f here. Maybe it is just because it has been a long time since I've played 2/4?

With given info, I think jam is best. He may be floaty, but his range is already somewhat restricted because of his high fold to 3bet, and it's hard to say whether or not he'll be double floating AQ and weak pairs here, and whether or not he'll turn those hands with showdown value into river bluffs. Because of this uncertainty, you end up playing guessing games if you check and he jams. Though I guess you could resort to optimal calling frequencies if you check.

Given the runout and that villain quite likely expects you to 3barrel your entire unimproved 3bet range, I think it is very likely he calls river with AJ (and maybe even some worse Jx). He may have more combos of better hands than he does of worse hands, but it's close enough that the value you gain from preempting an unknown number of bluffs makes a jam +EV imo. Even if it only a breakeven jam, I still think it is our best option as it can have some positive effects on our overall range and image.

easiest jam ever.

I wasn't considering a c/f fwiw. I ended up betting $96 on the river, wasn't sure if it was terrible.

Shove or check call, He likes to give you a tough time and he seems fairly aggressive, I would like to assume that if he had a flush draw or some random draw he would have raised you on the flop to get you off of most of your hands. So I doubt very many flush draws are in villains range. JQs,JA, JTs, 99,TT are a large part of his range on the river. Betting $100 makes your hand look like QK or something strong trying to milk out value from him. I think if you check this river like another poster said he probably doesn't think you have a calling range so he could turn his mediocre hands into bluffs here such as JT,99,TT etc to get you off of a J or K, He might think you are FoS too if you shove here.

Shippity ship ship let villain hero with AJ.

yeah i dont like c/call - on such a dry board v will often raise fd on flop so u can discount those a lot. Jx is most likely imo so ship is good

we are bluffing this turn a lot and this river is a good one to bluff so villain shouldn't only have the nuts to call us.

seems like an image prob, w/ my image I would def jam river(not that close), but it realy depends on how he views you, and what he think of you in 3bet pots.