3bet Pot with KK on ****ty board, Do I have another street of value?

[gbtl]

Opponent is 22/19/7 player, opens 55% of BU and folds to 3bet in this position 4 out of 9 times. I assume his range comprises many suited connectors and suited broadways. He is kind of a station/a little passive, WTSD 34% and AF about 1.5-2, folds to Flop cbet 40%. I think he's definitely not folding stuff like gutshots here.

I think my best line is b/f Flop, c/f T, but I don't know if I should b/f R or c/f R. C/f R seems so nitty but I think he still has some AX in his range and I'm not sure if I can beat >50% of his calling range.

Calling range assigned to villain: 66-TT, A7s-AQs, AJo+, KQo, KTs+, 78s+, 8Ts+

Poker Stars $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $874.73
BTN: $491.51
SB: $314.00
Hero (BB): $430.00
UTG: $199.55
MP: $453.20

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with K K
3 folds, BTN raises to $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $34, BTN calls $24

Flop: ($70.00) T 8 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $46, BTN calls $46

Turn: ($162.00) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($162.00) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $80, BTN calls $80

Flop: I think I have 57% equity vs the range of hands he will continue with. And I'm bet/folding since I think this guy isn't bluff raising very often and I have about 35-37% equity vs his range of sets, twopairs and pair+OESD

Turn: If villain never raises and calls with any hand he wishes to continue with, I will have 35.88% vs his range. If I discount 99/88 and two-pairs from villain's range, I now have 39% equity vs his Turn range. However I think a few AX hands, as well as many pair+draw hands will continue checking behind on the Turn so I doubt I have the playability or equity required to c/c the Turn so I will c/f

River: Now I'm questioning this part. Villain checks behind on the Turn. I'm putting him mostly on TX hands, and a couple of AX hands which may have chosen to pot control. I gave him a calling range of A7s, AQs, AJs, AJo (didn't include AQo to discount his AX combos), TJs-TKs, and my equity is 30% vs this range. Furthermore I didn't include some 9X hands which he might have which further decreases our equity.

So I'm thinking this should be a C/F instead. Thoughts?

[nikinblinds]

against a really good villain, id be happiest c/f flop. v this guy, i like your thoughts on b/f flop and c/f turn. As played river is too thin imo.

[dangerfish]

Originally Posted by nikinblinds

against a really good villain, id be happiest c/f flop. v this guy, i like your thoughts on b/f flop and c/f turn. As played river is too thin imo.

Really check folding this flop? I can think of a few other lines but non of them involve check folding KK here. I think the T and R are dependent on hero's game imo as to whether or not it is too thin.

[daveh07]

hahaha to the guy saying to C/F against a good reg. River is to thin. C/F is in order here. NH.

[moobaa]

looks like a good spot for C/C riv with this action

[OurSurveySays]

c/f is fine vs so many opponents here.

[JReezy]

Bet all 3 streets

[ilikeaces86_]

Nikini,

Good regs love to fire half pot on this board in 3 bet pot if you check the flop. They prbly check back some single pair hands but that is about it. I hate a c/f. c/c is fine though on flop imo.

[Khal Drogo]

Originally Posted by nikinblinds

against a really good villain, id be happiest c/f flop. v this guy, i like your thoughts on b/f flop and c/f turn. As played river is too thin imo.

No way! And I like reading your posts normally...

Agree that c/c is actually a decent flop line to mix in.

River bet is probably okay but very close to being too thin.
Checking is probably best with the intention to fold I guess.

[PenelopeCruz]

i like a flop c/c vs a mediocre reg a lot more than I do vs a really good reg

[Alexos]

i like a bet vs a passive mediocre reg because it's unlikely he puts us in a tough spot, but c/c vs the aggro mediocre reg. vs the good reg all options probably suck but i'd still prefer c/c i think, most people recognize this is a board we give up on and stab too often for us to warrant a c/f.

[adam001]

c/c flop > b/f flop >>>>>>c/f flop

if I bet flop tho, im betting this turn then c/f riv.

Now you have a faceup hand on river, doubt you are ever getting called by worse, id probably literally put u on exactly KK here with ur sizing and betting pattern, lol.

So, as played c/f riv but expect it to go check check a bunch and win i guess.

[KingDan]

check folding the flop is not even a little bit reasonable

[nikinblinds]

[blainestar]

screw a street, jam river for a highway of value