Villain is 24/19/2.7 over 1,900 hands. Other stats:

Cold Call = 9%; Call BB vs. Steal = 23%; 3bet = 6%; 3bet SB vs. Steal = 11%; 3bet BB vs. Steal = 6%; Fold to Flop CBet = 52%; Raise Flop CBet = 7%. he has called turn cbet 3 times out of 4 and folded the other time. He has folded to the only river cbet I have seen him face.


Any thoughts appreciated. Thanks.

what is your value range here? QQ+? JJ+? flushes+? seems like a good place to start, although his tendencies may be more important here.

In a vacuum I think I'm pretty easily value betting QJ+.


Unfortunately I really can't say much about his tendencies. This year I've been playing on two sites. I'd call one of them my main site that I play the most hands on and the other the other site that maybe I have a table or 2 going. This is on the other site and I just haven't payed as much attention to the games on this one and don't have as good a feel for the players.

Fold, even though he's not repping much since sets usually raise the flop people just don't bluff in this spot anywhere near often enough to justify calling. He has JT here like 75% of the time imo. You can easily have a full house here so he's never CRing worse for value and I just don't see this being a bluff very often at all, especially since you have the Ac. I only call here if villain is a spewy fish.

Super-standard-in-line-reg always has JT here in my experience.

Easy fold

Feels Like I already commented on this thread

Standard fold imo

All those stats don't say anything more than he is the most standard reg ever. That said, most default regs don't make these kind of bluffs with any frequency. I'd rather call with QJ for the blocker.

Additional questions to consider:
-Is he ever calling pre with JTo?
-If he almost always raising the flop with a set?

fistpump timebank, then fold showing one card the Q of spades

think its a spot that gets underbluffed also he should have all of 22/66/TT/JT

ive been running some calculations on the GTO megamaster 3000 and this is a call

**** GTO, everytime I call this spot villain has boat.

GTO says call. Most people don't bluff at the right frequency here. Against most people it's a fold then. Against those capable of bluffing its a call.
That simple.

Hey Minsk do you play on WPN under a similar sn?

show your work

Yeah I do. No I wont show you anything.

Ahh cool played with you some

Despite the fact he's only repping 6 combos of JT and 3 combos of 22-66 (given the fact that some of them will play aggressively on the flop), I can't imagine him bluffing a hand here.
He doesn't have many busted draws, 98 possibly and only the suited combos (given his stats in the BB) and one of them has a flush, the other draws such as 54s, 53s, 97s, 87s are not calling the turn.
He must be converting hands into bluff such as Tx, possibly a Jx, because of blockers, to justify your call and I pretty much doubt that a player of his characteristics does something like that in this spot given the fact that your sequence looks pretty strong.
In case you have HM2, I would use the stat of WSD when raise river but you need a big sample for that and I don't think 1900 hands is enough, but just in case you have a big sample of someone, I would use that stat.

I think it's a pretty standard fold.

Think it's a fold, you have better bluffcatchers to call with