Long time player, first time poster!
Local 2/5 NLHE game, eight-handed. Players at this room are generally capable, some very much so. I assume that players at this room know what they're doing until they demonstrate otherwise. Villain sat down about a round ago, so no specific information about him.
Stack Sizes:
SB (Hero): 650 [8
7
]
UTG: 370
UTG+2: 500
CO: 505
Pre-Flop:
UTG calls 5
UTG+2 raises to 20
CO calls 20
SB (Hero) calls 20 with [8
7
]
BB folds
UTG calls 20
Pot: 85
Flop:
[T 7 8]
I flop bottom two, and am happy to check with three players behind and reevaluate, likely planning for a C/R squeeze if conditions are favorable.
SB checks
UTG checks
UTG+2 bets 60
CO raises to 145
Action on SB with 290 in the pot.
DISCUSSION: Do you fold, call, or raise?
I figure the c-bet range is pretty wide for UTG+2, but CO has a pretty well-defined range here.
Value that we're behind (12 combos): J9s (4), TT (6), 88 (1), 77 (1);
Value that we beat (about 16): QQ (maybe 8 combos), JJ (maybe 8 combos); CO three-bets some of these preflop
Semi-bluffs (29): AQ-A2
(11), QJ
, 65
, 99 (16)
CO has about 240 behind, so half the pot if we call/raise (which, at this point, will probably put him all-in). What I'm interested to hear you discuss: what are the merits of raising here? Do we get more value from hands that we beat? Do we entice UTG or UTG+2 to call with the nut club draw by shoving? Do we err in giving CO another card without a raise? Will the semi-bluffs continue if they brick the turn, or do they not have enough fold equity at that point?
In the moment, I decide that calling has more merit, with the plan of begrudgingly C/C most turns and rivers. There are enough combos of value that we're ahead of that we might get the rest of it on the turn, like the QQ, JJ, or especially the 99. By calling, we ourselves represent basically Ax
, some combo draws, or the two pair-type hands like what we have. The whole situation kinda sucks; bottom two OOP is never easy, and facing a three-bet like we are, we are behind some generous minority of the time. Did I make a mistake? How do you guys handle murky situations like this?
SB calls 145
UTG folds
UTG+2 folds
Pot: 435
Turn: [3
]
SB checks
CO goes all-in for 240
SB calls 240
Is there any merit to betting out here? I figure since I'm just barely too strong to fold here, and I'm calling most of the time, by checking I give my opponent the chance to barrel with his semi-bluffs and weak value. I'll give the draws their card rather than risk betting into a better hand. Do you agree with this line of thinking? Do you think that CO will barrel with his weak value, even with little fold equity, or should I have bet here?
The river bricks, and CO shows Q
Q
. I breathe a sigh of relief, and scoop.