Local 2/5 game.

Hero: in the CO with 88, stack 930

Villain is in the BB. We don't know much about him; mid-twenty-something white guy who came over from the table that just broke, he has about 1200 to start the hand.

8-handed

UTG+1 raises to 20
Hero (CO) calls with 88
BTN, SB fold
Villain (BB) 3-bets to 80
UTG+1 calls 80
Hero calls 80

Pot: 245

Flop: [K J 8]

Villain bets 175
UTG+1 folds
Hero calls 175

Pot: 595

Turn: [6]

Villain bets 300
Hero calls 300

Pot: 1195

River: [Q]

Villain moves us all-in for remaining 375

Hero...?

My analysis:

On the flop, Villain's value is AA, KK, JJ, AK, and AQ. It's hard for Villain to have bluffs here; maybe suited wheel As that he decided to 3B? Low suited connectors? For made hands, Hero can be calling with 88 and KJs (not of spades) (but Hero doesn't usually have AK, JJ, or KK after flatting the initial raise pre); for draws, Hero usually has AQ-KQ or T9.

On the turn, I expect Villain to check AA and AK no spade (hero's calls usually beat that), and bet his KK, JJ, and AK-AQ. When Hero calls, is usually down to 88 and KJs for value, and T9 for the draw, but Villain may think I'm holding on with KQ. Hero probably doesn't want to shove T9 because Villain still has so much value and the flush might be dominated or the straight draw blocked.

On the river, the ranges change drastically. Since Hero can no longer have nearly any spade combinations, Villain could be value betting his flopped top set or middle set, or might have made his flush with AK. Even though Hero is getting almost four to one on his money, all of Villain's value range beats us, and the only bluff I can think of is AA with the A as a blocker. But even then, I expect Villain to check the turn, because we have 5 combos of value that beat him and only 2 draws.

So what do you guys think Hero should do on the river? With at least 7 combos of value solidly in Villain's range (Sets, AK, and however many random low combos), and bluffs so hard to come up with, is this a fold or a call?

Have to call given that price. He may well still jam AA/AK/KJs since he doesn't want to xf river. Don't expect to win very often, but you don't need to for it to be a +EV call.

Also I prob just shove turn.

Turn has to be a shove. It is slightly more than a minraise (300 to 675). If you shove villain will be getting a little over 4 to 1. Villain is almost always going to call. And the board is really drawy and villain will have draws sometimes; get it in against draws now rather than having the scenario where the draw misses and check/folds the river.

As played, you're getting a little over 4 to 1 and I think it has to be an easy call. Villain can easily have AA or AK; KQ could even be possible.

agree w/ others. shove turn.

why not raise flop?

Ok, so, confession--I was actually the Villain this hand. I already knew what I thought of the hand from my perspective, but I wanted to get in the head of my opponent (the Hero above), so I figured I'd get some input.

I wondered the same thing about why Hero didn't raise the flop, but it makes sense for him to just flat. Villain has him out-flopped often enough--Villain has as many combos of sets as he does of Aces--and Hero isn't likely to get called by an AK. If Villain is behind and drawing to a flush, he's probably going to keep barreling, and he's going to miss his flush more often than not. If he has a combo draw--say, AQss or ATss, then we're not going to get rid of him anyway.

So flopping a set against a 3B is great, but not when both better sets are squarely in Villain's range. Villain is unlikely to bet QQ for flop and turn (if at all on flop into two pre flop callers), and for reasons mentioned above, AK or even AA isn't likely to bet again once called (it's hard for Hero to have AK when he flats pre).

So when the spade peels off, it kinda sucks, but if Villain has spades and is chasing, don't we want him to stick around and barrel off his stack? Raising the turn means we don't have to deal with a tough decision when a spade rolls off, but more often, the river bricks, and at least some of the time Villain is going to barrel.

Even more worrying than the spades in Villain's range is that Hero can't have any, so Villain can bet all of his sets for value on the river. We're now afraid of 7 combos of value, and how many bluffs can we catch?

I guess the same problem exists with shoving the turn. We're in position, and don't we want to give him the chance to bluff when spades miss? If we shove turn, we fold out the three or four combos of bluffs that he has (that we are better than 6-1 favorites against and that might bluff into us on the river), and the six combos of sets snap us off. Do we expect him to show up with KJs here, or AK? Do we expect him to call with that, or with AA? I actually don't see any merit to shoving the turn, unless Hero resolves that he's committed to the pot and has too good of a hand to fold. But that doesn't seem like a good reason when our only chance of making more money is letting him bluff off on a brick.

As for the pot odds, I don't see how Villain is jamming AA/AK/KJs, or even betting two streets (except AA with a spade or AKss). For pot odds to be favorable, there have to be at least some hands that V bluffs with, which is precisely the problem.

Am I off here?

Your estimated ranges for a random villain at a 2/5 live table are drastically too tight IMO. Yes, I'm assuming villain is betting the turn and calling a turn shove with AA and AK (and probably other worse hands also).

i mean, you obviously have odds to betcall it off on the turn with a fd, so the principle difference in shoving vs. jamming for IP is whether or not he gives up too much by letting AQ or whatever off the hook, but 88 is a pretty fine hand to jam with anyway. IP gets a ton of value vs. OOP's range and is guaranteed to get the money in vs. hands which might xf certain rivers (Kx, draws). i'm not positive which is best, but my guess is that a solver would lean towards shoving 88. there is just not that much benefit to slowplaying on such a drawy board with so little money behind.

OOP's turn betsize is godawful btw. the only size that makes sense here is jam

88 has a fairly easy call on the river as played. odds are just too good, and OOP should ****-it shove a number of worse hands for value anyway since there is so little money left. not happy about it but you can't fold a set getting 4-1

like lego said i think your estimation of both players' ranges is much too tight, both theoretically and practically

full of imagination, do you really think what you talk in this thread is consistent with reality?

88 is a close call, not that happy.

OOP can have some bluff : AsX.

If you have AsKo,AsA, you need to turn it into bluff otr.