Hi,

Been going over this hand with a guy I've played 100s of hours with so far. Would greatly appreciate your input on this, as it's a flop spot we can't agree on.

He's UTG — tendencies: TAG, risk averse.
When he bets here, he has it, with very few bluffs. (Unlikely to pot-size-bet OTT without 2p+, AK)

Hero is UTG+2 10 9.
I'm perceived loose end of TAG and tricky. Over-bluff GTO-wise, as population overfolds, with some better players (such as this one) adapting somewhat — I know I'll likely get paid lightly here.

Villain (UTG) $13,000 (162BB)
Hero (UTG+2) $7,800 (97.5BB) -- 109
BB $10,900 (136BB)

Blinds $40/80 - ante $10

Villain opens UTG $240
Hero UTG+2 calls 10 9
BB calls

Flop — pot $850

Q 6 A

Villian bets $560
Hero calls 10 9
BB calls

1) Thoughts on including 10 9 in our calling range here — my thinking being there's a great deal of cards that improve us and are disguised OTT? (Extra: If it's not, what hands are?)

We call.

UTG $12,400
Hero $7,000 10 9
BB $10,100

Turn — $2,500
Q 6 A 8

UTG bets $2,500
Hero ? (is it a call here)?

I don't like calling the turn. Part of whats nice about continuing in this hand is the hope that UTG villain will slow down at some point and we will be able to steal the pot with a bet. But, if we call the turn, it will be hard to convincingly sell a bluff on the river. When the BB overcalls the flop it looks a lot like a flush draw. We should raise our big hands on the turn to price the BB out of calling again. So we polarize our turn raise range to 2pair+sets and bluffs, and our calling range will be mostly SDV that we bluff catch with on the river.

so I would raise or fold the turn. If you are going to call the flop it must be with the plan of continuing on such favorable turns, so I would raise all in right here.

Pretty cool hand, but I'm not sure why were even calling on the flop in the first place

40/80 blinds? Is this a real game? A lot more needs to be known about your overall strategy in order for anyone to comment. Also is this ring or sh?

Fold the flop ffs. There is nothing to be known about your overall strategy or anything, calling the flop is absolutely atrocious.

Sorry, this is dreadful advice tbh — here's why: We're never an equity favorite here and we have no fold equity against any value hands. We're getting our money in bad if we jam and we close the pot out to the BB, who we want to call along as we're on a draw.

Against AQ, we have direct odds to call to see a river card ~32%.

Even against AA, we have ~30%

The pot is $2,500
We have $7,000

To call, we need to call $2,500 into a pot that will be $7,500 (or even $10,000 if BB calls too) - we're therefore getting 2 to 1 (or 3 to 1) on a call. 32% equity is almost 33.3% but with a $7,500 pot and against an UTG raiser who has bet two streets heavy and with a disguised hand (he always has it here; my image is I bluff too much on the river; and our hand isn't as face-up as a heart draw or a broadway combo draw), we're always going to be paid off for the remainder when we hit the river.

Therefore calling is immediately profitable here. Raising all-in with no fold equity isn't.

While I appreciate the time taken to write out a reply, I deliberately asked about the turn call to work out who's thinking about the hand!

Please, I'm asking for opinions on whether 10:spades: 9:spades: should be in our continuing range against a cbet here, and if not, what hands do we call with so that we're not overfolding here. Asking for opinions from people who understand game theory/ cbet calling frequencies to make villain indifferent to cbetting ATC.

This is online, full ring, against players with whom I play live twice/three times a week — we know each others' play intimately.

Is he c betting this flop 100%? If he isn't potting the turn with AK +. I assume he is betting half or 2/3rds pot with the rest of his top pairs on non heart turns?

If this villain is as described then you don't have to worry about him betting ATC so why bother with constructing a calling frequency to protect against bluffs?

If you know villain gives up or has a bet sizing tell ott then it doesn't matter too much what you call with, though backdoor equity hands would probably be better.

As described I agree the flop call seems like lighting money on fire.

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk

+1

Directing this discussion to a focus on theory appears rather unnecessary.

Trivially:
Fold flop.
Call turn.

+1

I don't see any reason to float vs this player type

fake hand history.

call flop is ******ed.
turn most std call ever.