Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $2 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 133.67 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 18)
MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
Hero (CO): 67.76 BB
BTN: 146 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
SB: 107.9 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BB: 117.5 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J K

fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 8 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Flop: (16.5 BB, 2 players) 5 T K
BB bets 7.84 BB, Hero calls 7.84 BB

Turn: (32.17 BB, 2 players) 7
BB bets 15.34 BB, Hero calls 15.34 BB

River: (62.84 BB, 2 players) 2
BB bets 86.33 BB and is all-in

I was shot taking 200NL so not many reads on opponents, river seems like a standard fold, but could be close? Lmk please.

I would lean towards folding. He should have many flushes in his range as well as sets. Only gutshots missed and some random bluffs, but you also block AJ and QJ. But given the price I guess you could call sometimes. I haven't done the math though, so I'm not sure. What I dislike most is the turncard which completes his flushdraws. If the turncard was like a 7 of diamond I would always call the river. In fact folding the river then would be a huge blunder I think.

You're right to think that this is a close spot.

A good player will be able to understand that your most likely hands are a mixture of ace-highs, ten-x (Tx) and king-x (Kx) holdings. That good player will then bet good hands and bluffs with a frequency such that you find your river decision, on average, to be a difficult one.

Let's start by considering the situation intuitively, and then if you'd like to extrapolate from that and add some mathematics to the ideas, then I would say bravo to you! It'll definitely be worth your time.

The idea you're struggling with here is the idea of indifference. You claim that you've no reads on this particular opponent, and while that is true, you do know that you're a short stacking player who probably looks to be incredibly weak (in some way... maybe you fold too often, maybe you call too often... I'm not sure) because of your buy-in amount. So, for now, let's ignore that and break down indifference a bit.

Your opponent is putting you on a mixture of hands including a few sets, a few flushes, some ace-highs, some Tx and mostly Kx hands. When he bets all-in, he should consider that a lot of the time his value bets with Kx hands with which he re-raises pre-flop are less likely to be called as he has a king AND because your most likely calling hand is a king.

In other words, if your opponent's idea is to create a distribution of hands which are indifferent to calling this river bet and your range is as above described, you should be calling with Kx here, absent of any more information. That is because you block your opponent's value betting distribution in a fairly significant way. Yes, he can have AQ or AA, but he should be considering that when he bluffs. He should have several bluffing combinations as well like AJ.

As you're both very near the top of the range (you have one of your best possible holdings in this spot) AND you block your opponents distribution that bets for value, I would recommend calling, absent of any other relevant information.

If you can claim that your shot taking or past play has been noticed to the point that your opponent might not bluff here often, if at all, is debatable. What is not debatable is that if you're folding KJ here with these stack sizes with this action that your play is exploitable, i.e. one could simply bet 3 times against you and make you fold far too many of your holdings and if one did this, one would profit against you by bluffing 100% of the time.

Why do you have 67bb

since ur not in for a full stack i think you will be viewed as a fish by the regs, meaning this jam is way more value heavy

You turn calling range is something like that:
13 flushes - 6 AXs, assuming you 4bet wheel aces, 3 Qxs, 2 Jxs and 2 SCs
6 sets
5 two pairs - 2 KTs, 3 K7s
11 pair + FD - 6 Kxc assuming you call preflop with KJo, which might be loose in Co, 2 Acx, again assuming you call with ATo
24 TP - 9 KQ, 9 KJ, 3 K9s, 3 K8s
6 pair below TP - 2 ATs, 2 QTs and 2JTs, though think we can fold all 2nd pairs here with no FD as we will have enough flushes here to defend against a T cbet
12 FDs - 6 AQ and 6 AJ

So that is 77 combos in total.
If I calculated correctly you had only 36.6 bbs left OTR so with him jamming you would need to fold no more than 37% to make his bluffs indifferent, assuming our calls beat his bluffs and he has enough bluffs here. Which are usually the case but these are the necessary pre-conditions to apply the mdf principle.

So 37% of hands are 28 combos here. So you fold all missed FDs and 2nd pairs and you need another 10 combos to fold from your TPs. Because you call with any TP with a club, our candidates are the naked KQ, KJ, K9s and K8s.

Before we select our folds we have to think about his bluffs, so we dont block them. His natural bluffs I think are AQo, AJs, J9s here, dont necessarily think he 3bets QJs or AJo much against a CO open. So K8s hence is the greatest bluff catcher from our TPs and think K9 is a better one than the others because AQ and AJ block more TPs so he probably bluffs with them more. So the question in the end is whether we fold KJ or KQ here?

Because we can only fold another 10 combos we cant fold both, assuming the above turn calling range. I think it is more likely that he 3bets AQo than AJo so we should be unblocking Q instead of J, meaning I would rather fold KQ and call with KJ. Because we have 9 combos of KQ without a club, we can fold all of them and call with our KJ.

Assuming we dont call preflop with ATo and KJo and we didnt call the T with a 2nd pair without clubs, we are actually in the same situation still. We have 60 combos otr (6 pair+FD instead of 11, 18 TP instead of 24 and 0 2nd pairs instead of 6) and we can fold 22 combos hence. After we have folded our 12 missed FDs, we still another 10 from the same group so we again fold our 9 combos of naked KQ and call 2 of our 3 KJs.

All of the above assuming he is balanced here. if we beleive that he perceives you as a weaker player because of your starting chips and hence he is more value skewed we can fold the KJ combos too.